Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough over the Rockies will continue to progress eastward toward the Plains tonight. In advance of the mid-level trough, broad surface lee troughing is taking place across the central U.S., where an intense (50-60kt) low-level jet is expected to develop, leading to ample northward low-level warm-air/moisture advection through the remainder of the period. Given the gradual approach of favorable upper-level support, thunderstorm initiation has become more questionable before 12Z. Nonetheless, thunder probabilities have been maintained in the event that thunderstorms can develop atop a moist boundary layer. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the TX Gulf Coast given onshore advection of rich low-level moisture. ..Squitieri.. 10/30/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 29 23:37:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 29 23:37:01 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 1600 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized shower activity. While this system isn't
any better organized since yesterday, a tropical depression could
still form within a few days while the system moves generally
westward at about 15 mph. This system is expected to cross into the
Central Pacific Basin by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is
possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly to
the west-northwest. By the end of the week, however, upper-level
winds should become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday, before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning. ...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas... A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by limited/local risk for gusty winds. As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited -- particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast cycle. Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward). ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more