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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with line segments. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability. However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and severe gusts possible. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with line segments. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability. However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and severe gusts possible. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with line segments. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability. However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and severe gusts possible. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with line segments. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability. However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and severe gusts possible. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with line segments. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability. However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and severe gusts possible. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with line segments. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability. However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and severe gusts possible. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with line segments. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability. However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and severe gusts possible. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the Ozarks and lower Mississippi northeastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... Northwest mid-level flow will remain today from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop throughout this moist airass by afternoon. As temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Appalachians. Model forecasts in the Ozarks by afternoon increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and show moderate deep-layer shear in most areas. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells will be possible, line segments may also develop. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with line segments. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level low will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians. Moderate instability is expected to develop by early this afternoon along an axis of maximized low-level moisture from middle Tennessee northeastward into southern and eastern Ohio. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon throughout this moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings in the early afternoon from middle Tennessee to southern Ohio show moderate deep-layer shear across much of the region. This could support an isolated severe threat with cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability. However, low to mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent are forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low will remain in the far eastern Pacific. Ahead of this feature, mid-level flow will be southwesterly across much of the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across western Oregon and western Washington. As surface temperatures warm, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop near the moist axis, with storms forming during the afternoon. In addition to the instability, model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat. Cells that form within this area of moderate instability, could obtain a marginal severe threat with hail and severe gusts possible. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2024 Read more