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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 30 17:55:02 UTC 2024.

The Alabama Forestry Commission issued a Fire Danger Advisory for all counties. In the last 30 days, 246 wildfires burned almost 3,000 acres. Outdoor burning was discouraged. “Dead pine trees from last year’s drought and the resulting southern pine beetle outbreak this year are contributing to fire intensity, which challenges containment efforts and presents additional hazards to firefighters,” said AFC Fire Analyst Ethan Barrett in a previous release. “This weather pattern featuring above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation is predicted for the next few weeks, allowing for worsening drought impacts and a likely increase in wildfires until more frequent rain returns.” AL.com (Birmingham, Ala.), Oct 30, 2024

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

Water from the Monksville Reservoir was being sent by the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission to the Wanaque Reservoir due to the lack of rainfall. The level of Monksville Reservoir will drop six feet or more, so boaters ought to be careful of underwater hazards. The West Milford Messenger (N.J.), Oct 30, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more