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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in Kansas based on the current frontal position and expected surface low track this afternoon. The forecast is otherwise on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more