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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. Read more

MD 2162 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa and northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301805Z - 302000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An organizing line of thunderstorms may pose a severe wind threat through late afternoon as convection spreads northeast into northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Trends will be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms across northeast KS/southeast NE has undergone gradual organization with a consolidated outflow boundary becoming evident in regional velocity imagery. Additionally, IR cloud top temperatures have been steadily cooling as the line has become more organized, and measured wind gusts of 59 and 69 mph were recently reported across northeast KS, which point to an overall intensification trend. Gradual destabilization is ongoing downstream from this developing line across northern MO into southern IA as temperatures climb into the 70s with low 60s dewpoints. Persistent southerly flow combined with muted daytime heating should maintain this trend (although overall buoyancy should remain quite limited - around 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Regardless, 40-50 knot deep-layer wind shear vectors are oriented largely orthogonal to the line, which should favor line maintenance and forward propagation along the surface cold front with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. The limited buoyancy and southeastward progression of the front cast uncertainty into how intense convection may be as it migrates east, but trends are being monitored and watch issuance is possible if a robust/widespread severe threat materializes. ..Moore/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 42249224 41849196 41359183 40839195 40529205 40139222 39049612 39009647 39229660 39569651 40419623 40739606 41059580 42769325 42759286 42539247 42249224 Read more

Columbia County officials declared a State of Emergency effective at 5:00 PM on October 30, 2024, in response to severe drought conditions that pose a threat to public safety. This emergency status will remain in effect for up to 30 days. WRGB Online (Schenectady, N.Y.), Oct 30, 2024

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FNB TO 35 ENE FNB TO 30 SE DNS. ..MOORE..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-039-049-051-053-077-099-117-121-123-125-127-135- 153-157-159-171-173-175-179-181-185-302040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR GUTHRIE JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE KSC043-302040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DONIPHAN MOC001-003-021-061-063-075-079-081-129-147-171-197-211-227- Read more

MD 2163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...Western/northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301815Z - 301945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for supercells this afternoon across western/north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. These storms will have a threat for large hail and a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Some type of impulse triggered some elevated thunderstorms across southern Kansas this morning. In the wake of this activity, subsidence has resulted in clearing and significant surface heating across western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. In addition, low-level moisture advection has increased dewpoints to 64-67F ahead of the dryline as far north as Reno and Harvey Counties in Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis currently suggests around 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal inhibition. Continued surface heating and mid-level cooling may allow for some additional destabilization later this afternoon. Current visible satellite shows deepening cumulus along the dryline from Harper County, Oklahoma to near Childress, TX. Expect initial strong/severe storm development near the triple point in northwest Oklahoma/southern Kansas where forcing is strongest. Eventually expect additional development southward along the dryline to near I-40 in Oklahoma. These storms along the dryline will have greater potential to remain discrete for a few hours given the more favorable boundary orientation. At this time, the most favored solution is a more linear wind/QLCS tornado threat along the cold front in Kansas with a more discrete hail/strong tornado threat associated with supercells in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Based on current trends, a tornado watch will likely be needed soon. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 36549670 35609744 35309849 35279969 35899975 36769972 37569937 38359811 38599710 38119665 36549670 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more