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WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

245
ABPZ20 KNHC 162334
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the west of its center.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion of the
East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central
Pacific basin. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 1924 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1924 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...Central and northern Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628... Valid 162300Z - 170030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628. At least a few instances of severe wind or hail may accompany the stronger storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters and transient supercells have percolated in intensity from far western OK into far northwestern AR over the past few hours. At the moment, a couple of strong thunderstorm clusters are ongoing along diffuse baroclinic boundaries, were surface temperatures are in the upper 90s to low 100s F, contributing to 8.5-9.5 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates. As such, the more intense, persistent updrafts may support a large-hail threat until they become outflow dominant, when severe gusts become the main concern. However, deep-layer ascent/shear remain weak, so thunderstorms may continue to struggle to maintain intensity, with the severe threat perhaps becoming gradually more isolated through the evening. ..Squitieri.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35790001 36779902 37039498 36729390 36239357 35889366 35669546 35249766 35169872 35169943 35199997 35790001 Read more

MD 1923 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1923 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162231Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds locally -- with potential for a gust or two near severe levels -- can be expected over the next couple of hours across a portion of far southeastern Wisconsin and into northern Illinois. WW issuance is not expected, due to anticipated marginal/isolated nature of the risk. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that a semi-organized band of storms has developed over northwestern Illinois, ahead of a subtle, eastward-moving mid-level vort max embedded within the cyclonic flow surrounding the western Lake Superior upper low. A narrow axis of 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated just ahead of the band of storms, which suggests continuation -- and possible/slight strengthening over the next 1 to 2 hours. The latest VWP from the KLOT (Chicago, IL) WSR-88D shows flow weakly veering from west-southwesterly to west-northwesterly with height, and increasing to around 35 kt at mid levels. This should allow storms to progress into the Chicago -- and possibly Milwaukee -- vicinity, accompanied by gusty winds. While a couple of gusts could near or reach severe levels, risk should remain sparse and marginal, and thus insufficient to warrant WW consideration. ..Goss/Edwards.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41899033 42458943 43088879 42888810 41938760 41438790 41418935 41899033 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 16 21:57:24 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1920 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1920 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...central and southern Wisconsin into parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161853Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity likely will continue to increase in coverage while also slowly intensifying across central into southwestern Wisconsin, and perhaps adjacent portions of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, through 3-5 PM CDT. Some small to marginally severe hail is possible, before activity gradually organizes and poses a risk for strong to severe gusts while approaching southern Lake Michigan into early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently been intensifying over central Wisconsin, near Wisconsin Rapids. This is beneath the modest mid-level cold core of a broad mid/upper low slowly shifting into the upper Great Lakes region, and in advance of an associated intrusion of cooler/drier air which has overspread much of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Wind fields and shear near the ongoing convection are rather weak, but low-level lapse rates have become relatively steep with daytime heating, and easterly low-level inflow into convection appears characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg. To the west and southwest of this convection, a digging mid-level cyclonic vorticity center and associated speed maximum may contribute to forcing for gradually increasing new thunderstorm development across southwestern into south central Wisconsin and adjacent portions of Iowa/northern Illinois through 20-22Z. As this occurs, in closer proximity to the jet streak, strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (to 30-40 kt) may be sufficient to support organizing convection. This may gradually be accompanied by a strengthening surface cold pool with by strong to locally severe gusts while advancing toward southern Lake Michigan into this evening. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42479086 43409025 44158951 43638787 42298835 42018952 42049073 42479086 Read more

MD 1922 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1922 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162020Z - 162115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will be possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite trends continue to show thunderstorm and cumulus development across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles over the last hour. This suggests that capping has eroded, with temperatures exceeding 100 F in many locations. Dew points are in the low to mid 60s, with dew point depressions around 40 degrees. The environment is further characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and weak deep layer shear. This will likely yield multi-cell clusters with potential for strong to severe winds. With the lack of deep layer shear for organization, a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35499934 35739919 36149914 36489931 36639940 36750030 36920137 36910169 36920217 36950244 36760264 36700265 36300248 35750222 35200163 35189960 35499934 Read more

MD 1921 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1921 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161907Z - 162100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A conditional threat of wind and hail will be possible downstream of WW627 as long-lived supercell and potential for additional convection develops continues east and southeast. DISCUSSION...An elevated long-lived supercell continues to track east along trailing outflow in south-central Kansas south of Wichita. Visible satellite has shown attempts at new cell development on the southern flank of outflow as it sags southward towards northern Oklahoma. Modified soundings would suggest that the downstream environment may only be weakly capped, as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A conditional threat of large hail and damaging wind may extend downstream with further warming and weakening of capping occurs and supercells can become surface based, given MLCAPE around 1000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-40 kts. This area is being monitored for a downstream watch should intensification occur. A local extension of WW627 may be needed in south-central Kansas. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36809765 36419729 36219684 36099647 36049597 36069558 36309499 36599467 36949495 37299541 37819620 37889696 37789767 37219781 36809765 Read more