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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more