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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024 Read more

The Indiana County Municipal Services Authority asked its customers to voluntarily curb non-essential water use. Officials said that the area was on the verge of a drought watch with no significant rain in the forecast. The Blairsville Municipal Authority still has a mandatory water conservation effort in effect. WCCS-AM (Indiana, Pa.), Oct 30, 2024

A fire in the Mark Twain National Forest scorched more than 1,500 acres. A fire chief in Eureka advised the public not to burn anything outside, given the dry conditions. Conditions were too dry to carry out controlled burns that would normally take place at this time of year, according to an employee with Missouri Botanical Garden’s Shaw Nature Reserve. KMOV First Alert 4 (St. Louis, Mo.), Oct 29, 2024

MD 2161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...central/northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301407Z - 301530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of some large hail are possible this morning from portions of central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Lightning has increased across central Kansas as ascent increases across the Plains within a moderately unstable environment. The TOP 12Z RAOB indicated around 1300 J/kg MUCAPE and continued low-level moisture advection and mid-level cooling should increase instability as the morning progresses. Effective shear was actually quite weak at 12Z with a 60 knot low-level jet near the low-level jet and 60 knots at 7km with weaker flow between this layer. However, as the mid-level jet streak approaches the region and nocturnal influences of the low-level jet reduce, a more favorable, gradually increasing wind profile with height is expected to develop by late morning to early afternoon. As instability and the wind profile improve, eventually expect some supercells to develop along or slightly on the cool side of the cold front. Isolated large hail will be the primary threat from this activity later this morning and into the early afternoon. A watch likely will not be needed in the short term. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37110000 37939979 39269915 39729849 40519649 40619585 40539567 40359558 39959604 38889745 38299801 37699865 37329913 37069966 37110000 Read more

Aqua asked its water customers in Pennsylvania and New Jersey to voluntarily conserve water as drought continued. WPVI-TV ABC 6 Philadelphia (Pa.), Oct 29, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri. ...Lower Missouri Valley/South-Central Plains... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon into evening, including some southern Plains areas in which there hasn't been severe-weather potential in over a month. The lead portion of an upper-level trough centered over the central/southern Rockies this morning will eject northeastward over the central Plains toward broader parts of the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt. A surface wave will evolve across the eastern Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma vicinity. From this low, an east/southeastward-moving cold front will extend across Kansas into Iowa/Minnesota and eventually Wisconsin/western Missouri by this evening, with this front overtaking a dryline across the southern High Plains. Some severe-weather potential may increase as early as late morning into midday near the cold front across central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and Iowa, with a likely increase in surface-rooted convection and greater severe potential by mid/late afternoon as the front approaches east-central/northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri/southern Iowa. Pre-convective MLCAPE values should reach 500-1250 J/kg within this corridor, with very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds supporting 40-50 kt effective shear and fast east-northeastward storm motions, which will largely parallel the front and its east-southeastward motion. Some severe hail will be possible during the day, but damaging winds and some tornado potential will be more prevalent into late afternoon and evening as a QLCS evolves with embedded bowing segments and potential mesovortices. Farther south, in closer proximity to the surface wave, somewhat more discrete thunderstorm development is expected across south-central/east-central Kansas including the I-35/135 corridors and north-central Oklahoma, with prospects for even more isolated initial supercellular development by around sunset southward into central/southern Oklahoma and North Texas. Surface temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid 60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Storms that develop/mature in this environment will likely be supercells in the presence of 45+ effective shear, highlighted by a dramatic strengthening (50-65 kt) of 2-3 km AGL (surface-700 mb) southwesterly winds toward/after sunset. Storm mergers will result in squall line development over time, with a longer duration of more discrete development with southward extent across Oklahoma. A few tornadoes are plausible regionally, and a strong tornado or two could occur, particularly within a couple of hours of sunset. The severe threat should transition to more of a damaging wind threat as the squall line matures, although line-embedded QLCS tornadoes will remain possible this evening, and possibly overnight. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating storms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri. ...Lower Missouri Valley/South-Central Plains... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon into evening, including some southern Plains areas in which there hasn't been severe-weather potential in over a month. The lead portion of an upper-level trough centered over the central/southern Rockies this morning will eject northeastward over the central Plains toward broader parts of the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt. A surface wave will evolve across the eastern Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma vicinity. From this low, an east/southeastward-moving cold front will extend across Kansas into Iowa/Minnesota and eventually Wisconsin/western Missouri by this evening, with this front overtaking a dryline across the southern High Plains. Some severe-weather potential may increase as early as late morning into midday near the cold front across central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and Iowa, with a likely increase in surface-rooted convection and greater severe potential by mid/late afternoon as the front approaches east-central/northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri/southern Iowa. Pre-convective MLCAPE values should reach 500-1250 J/kg within this corridor, with very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds supporting 40-50 kt effective shear and fast east-northeastward storm motions, which will largely parallel the front and its east-southeastward motion. Some severe hail will be possible during the day, but damaging winds and some tornado potential will be more prevalent into late afternoon and evening as a QLCS evolves with embedded bowing segments and potential mesovortices. Farther south, in closer proximity to the surface wave, somewhat more discrete thunderstorm development is expected across south-central/east-central Kansas including the I-35/135 corridors and north-central Oklahoma, with prospects for even more isolated initial supercellular development by around sunset southward into central/southern Oklahoma and North Texas. Surface temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid 60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Storms that develop/mature in this environment will likely be supercells in the presence of 45+ effective shear, highlighted by a dramatic strengthening (50-65 kt) of 2-3 km AGL (surface-700 mb) southwesterly winds toward/after sunset. Storm mergers will result in squall line development over time, with a longer duration of more discrete development with southward extent across Oklahoma. A few tornadoes are plausible regionally, and a strong tornado or two could occur, particularly within a couple of hours of sunset. The severe threat should transition to more of a damaging wind threat as the squall line matures, although line-embedded QLCS tornadoes will remain possible this evening, and possibly overnight. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating storms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri. ...Lower Missouri Valley/South-Central Plains... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon into evening, including some southern Plains areas in which there hasn't been severe-weather potential in over a month. The lead portion of an upper-level trough centered over the central/southern Rockies this morning will eject northeastward over the central Plains toward broader parts of the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt. A surface wave will evolve across the eastern Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma vicinity. From this low, an east/southeastward-moving cold front will extend across Kansas into Iowa/Minnesota and eventually Wisconsin/western Missouri by this evening, with this front overtaking a dryline across the southern High Plains. Some severe-weather potential may increase as early as late morning into midday near the cold front across central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and Iowa, with a likely increase in surface-rooted convection and greater severe potential by mid/late afternoon as the front approaches east-central/northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri/southern Iowa. Pre-convective MLCAPE values should reach 500-1250 J/kg within this corridor, with very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds supporting 40-50 kt effective shear and fast east-northeastward storm motions, which will largely parallel the front and its east-southeastward motion. Some severe hail will be possible during the day, but damaging winds and some tornado potential will be more prevalent into late afternoon and evening as a QLCS evolves with embedded bowing segments and potential mesovortices. Farther south, in closer proximity to the surface wave, somewhat more discrete thunderstorm development is expected across south-central/east-central Kansas including the I-35/135 corridors and north-central Oklahoma, with prospects for even more isolated initial supercellular development by around sunset southward into central/southern Oklahoma and North Texas. Surface temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid 60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Storms that develop/mature in this environment will likely be supercells in the presence of 45+ effective shear, highlighted by a dramatic strengthening (50-65 kt) of 2-3 km AGL (surface-700 mb) southwesterly winds toward/after sunset. Storm mergers will result in squall line development over time, with a longer duration of more discrete development with southward extent across Oklahoma. A few tornadoes are plausible regionally, and a strong tornado or two could occur, particularly within a couple of hours of sunset. The severe threat should transition to more of a damaging wind threat as the squall line matures, although line-embedded QLCS tornadoes will remain possible this evening, and possibly overnight. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating storms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri. ...Lower Missouri Valley/South-Central Plains... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon into evening, including some southern Plains areas in which there hasn't been severe-weather potential in over a month. The lead portion of an upper-level trough centered over the central/southern Rockies this morning will eject northeastward over the central Plains toward broader parts of the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt. A surface wave will evolve across the eastern Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma vicinity. From this low, an east/southeastward-moving cold front will extend across Kansas into Iowa/Minnesota and eventually Wisconsin/western Missouri by this evening, with this front overtaking a dryline across the southern High Plains. Some severe-weather potential may increase as early as late morning into midday near the cold front across central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and Iowa, with a likely increase in surface-rooted convection and greater severe potential by mid/late afternoon as the front approaches east-central/northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri/southern Iowa. Pre-convective MLCAPE values should reach 500-1250 J/kg within this corridor, with very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds supporting 40-50 kt effective shear and fast east-northeastward storm motions, which will largely parallel the front and its east-southeastward motion. Some severe hail will be possible during the day, but damaging winds and some tornado potential will be more prevalent into late afternoon and evening as a QLCS evolves with embedded bowing segments and potential mesovortices. Farther south, in closer proximity to the surface wave, somewhat more discrete thunderstorm development is expected across south-central/east-central Kansas including the I-35/135 corridors and north-central Oklahoma, with prospects for even more isolated initial supercellular development by around sunset southward into central/southern Oklahoma and North Texas. Surface temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid 60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Storms that develop/mature in this environment will likely be supercells in the presence of 45+ effective shear, highlighted by a dramatic strengthening (50-65 kt) of 2-3 km AGL (surface-700 mb) southwesterly winds toward/after sunset. Storm mergers will result in squall line development over time, with a longer duration of more discrete development with southward extent across Oklahoma. A few tornadoes are plausible regionally, and a strong tornado or two could occur, particularly within a couple of hours of sunset. The severe threat should transition to more of a damaging wind threat as the squall line matures, although line-embedded QLCS tornadoes will remain possible this evening, and possibly overnight. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating storms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/30/2024 Read more