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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the Southeast, centered on central to south Alabama into central/eastern North Carolina, during Sunday afternoon to early evening. ...Deep South to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States... A slow-moving mid/upper trough, with its axis over the Lower Great Lakes, is largely progged to amplify as a mid/upper jetlet digs towards the basal portion of the trough. This will result in the belt of enhanced west-southwesterly to northwesterly mid-level flow shifting south across the Southeast by Sunday afternoon. Occluded surface cyclone should drift east across southern ON into western NY. An arcing cold front will largely extend south across the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast before trailing westward over the Deep South to Lower MS Valley. The combination of moderate to strong buoyancy with a moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should be greatest across parts of MS to GA. A greater probability for thunderstorm development is expected from the Carolinas northward. A corridor of favorable overlap for a mixed mode of clusters and a few supercells is apparent from parts of central/south AL into central/eastern NC. Strong to isolated severe gusts capable of producing scattered damaging winds should be the primary threat during the afternoon to early evening. Isolated large hail will also be possible, especially with western extent. ...Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper ridge will remain anchored across the High Plains between the amplifying trough over the East and a trough along the Pacific Northwest coast. A plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will persist from the Ozarks into the central High Plains within a modest northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of central NE and far southern SD. This activity may strengthen during the morning with a threat for isolated severe hail as it gradually sinks southward. At least isolated surface-based storms should develop off the higher terrain during the afternoon and gradually move east across the High Plains into the evening. Localized severe wind/hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-077-079-095-097-113-151-155-159-173- 185-191-162040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-077-079-095-097-113-151-155-159-173- 185-191-162040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-077-079-095-097-113-151-155-159-173- 185-191-162040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-077-079-095-097-113-151-155-159-173- 185-191-162040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-077-079-095-097-113-151-155-159-173- 185-191-162040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-077-079-095-097-113-151-155-159-173- 185-191-162040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 627 SEVERE TSTM KS 161555Z - 162100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and south central Kansas * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1055 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may persist into the afternoon and become rooted at the surface while moving southeastward. The more intense storms will be capable of producing hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Dodge City KS to 20 miles east northeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Thompson Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week more than a
thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves generally westward across
the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific
basin. Information on this system's development can also be found
in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Berg

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-047-077-079-095-097-113-145-151-155- 159-173-185-191-161840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-047-077-079-095-097-113-145-151-155- 159-173-185-191-161840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more