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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri. ...Lower Missouri Valley/South-Central Plains... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon into evening, including some southern Plains areas in which there hasn't been severe-weather potential in over a month. The lead portion of an upper-level trough centered over the central/southern Rockies this morning will eject northeastward over the central Plains toward broader parts of the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt. A surface wave will evolve across the eastern Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma vicinity. From this low, an east/southeastward-moving cold front will extend across Kansas into Iowa/Minnesota and eventually Wisconsin/western Missouri by this evening, with this front overtaking a dryline across the southern High Plains. Some severe-weather potential may increase as early as late morning into midday near the cold front across central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and Iowa, with a likely increase in surface-rooted convection and greater severe potential by mid/late afternoon as the front approaches east-central/northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri/southern Iowa. Pre-convective MLCAPE values should reach 500-1250 J/kg within this corridor, with very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds supporting 40-50 kt effective shear and fast east-northeastward storm motions, which will largely parallel the front and its east-southeastward motion. Some severe hail will be possible during the day, but damaging winds and some tornado potential will be more prevalent into late afternoon and evening as a QLCS evolves with embedded bowing segments and potential mesovortices. Farther south, in closer proximity to the surface wave, somewhat more discrete thunderstorm development is expected across south-central/east-central Kansas including the I-35/135 corridors and north-central Oklahoma, with prospects for even more isolated initial supercellular development by around sunset southward into central/southern Oklahoma and North Texas. Surface temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid 60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Storms that develop/mature in this environment will likely be supercells in the presence of 45+ effective shear, highlighted by a dramatic strengthening (50-65 kt) of 2-3 km AGL (surface-700 mb) southwesterly winds toward/after sunset. Storm mergers will result in squall line development over time, with a longer duration of more discrete development with southward extent across Oklahoma. A few tornadoes are plausible regionally, and a strong tornado or two could occur, particularly within a couple of hours of sunset. The severe threat should transition to more of a damaging wind threat as the squall line matures, although line-embedded QLCS tornadoes will remain possible this evening, and possibly overnight. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating storms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/30/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Rockies and Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place over much of the southern and central Plains. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Thunderstorms that develop along and near this instability axis will have a chance to be severe. Supercells could produce large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. On Sunday, low-level moisture advection is expected to continue over much of the Great Plains, as the upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. Model forecasts are in reasonably good agreement, with an axis of moderate instability developing Sunday afternoon from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma northward into Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should support supercell development, with a potential for isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat should persist into the evening as scattered severe storms move eastward across the southern and central Plains. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the southern High Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a corridor of weak instability from central and north Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary threats. At this time, the timing of the ejecting mid-level jet, and magnitude of instability remain too uncertain to issue a threat area. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, suggesting the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms would be greatest from Kentucky southwestward into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. However, spatial and magnitude uncertainty are substantial at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Rockies and Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place over much of the southern and central Plains. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Thunderstorms that develop along and near this instability axis will have a chance to be severe. Supercells could produce large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. On Sunday, low-level moisture advection is expected to continue over much of the Great Plains, as the upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. Model forecasts are in reasonably good agreement, with an axis of moderate instability developing Sunday afternoon from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma northward into Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should support supercell development, with a potential for isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat should persist into the evening as scattered severe storms move eastward across the southern and central Plains. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the southern High Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a corridor of weak instability from central and north Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary threats. At this time, the timing of the ejecting mid-level jet, and magnitude of instability remain too uncertain to issue a threat area. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, suggesting the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms would be greatest from Kentucky southwestward into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. However, spatial and magnitude uncertainty are substantial at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Rockies and Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place over much of the southern and central Plains. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Thunderstorms that develop along and near this instability axis will have a chance to be severe. Supercells could produce large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. On Sunday, low-level moisture advection is expected to continue over much of the Great Plains, as the upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. Model forecasts are in reasonably good agreement, with an axis of moderate instability developing Sunday afternoon from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma northward into Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should support supercell development, with a potential for isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat should persist into the evening as scattered severe storms move eastward across the southern and central Plains. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the southern High Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a corridor of weak instability from central and north Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary threats. At this time, the timing of the ejecting mid-level jet, and magnitude of instability remain too uncertain to issue a threat area. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, suggesting the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms would be greatest from Kentucky southwestward into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. However, spatial and magnitude uncertainty are substantial at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Rockies and Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place over much of the southern and central Plains. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Thunderstorms that develop along and near this instability axis will have a chance to be severe. Supercells could produce large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. On Sunday, low-level moisture advection is expected to continue over much of the Great Plains, as the upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. Model forecasts are in reasonably good agreement, with an axis of moderate instability developing Sunday afternoon from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma northward into Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should support supercell development, with a potential for isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat should persist into the evening as scattered severe storms move eastward across the southern and central Plains. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the southern High Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a corridor of weak instability from central and north Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary threats. At this time, the timing of the ejecting mid-level jet, and magnitude of instability remain too uncertain to issue a threat area. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, suggesting the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms would be greatest from Kentucky southwestward into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. However, spatial and magnitude uncertainty are substantial at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Rockies and Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place over much of the southern and central Plains. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Thunderstorms that develop along and near this instability axis will have a chance to be severe. Supercells could produce large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. On Sunday, low-level moisture advection is expected to continue over much of the Great Plains, as the upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. Model forecasts are in reasonably good agreement, with an axis of moderate instability developing Sunday afternoon from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma northward into Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should support supercell development, with a potential for isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat should persist into the evening as scattered severe storms move eastward across the southern and central Plains. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the southern High Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a corridor of weak instability from central and north Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary threats. At this time, the timing of the ejecting mid-level jet, and magnitude of instability remain too uncertain to issue a threat area. ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, suggesting the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms would be greatest from Kentucky southwestward into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. However, spatial and magnitude uncertainty are substantial at this range. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts, will be possible Friday night in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Rockies and Great Plains on Friday, as a trough moves inland across the West Coast. Moisture advection will take place over the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints likely reaching the 60s F across much of Texas. The strongest instability is forecast by mid to late evening from far West Texas into eastern New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop. Additional convection is expected further to the east across west-central Texas. During the overnight period, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand northeastward into parts of the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas. Forecast soundings from far West Texas into the Texas Panhandle Friday evening and overnight have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for supercells with large hail. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. The severe threat could persist to late in the period. ..Broyles.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts, will be possible Friday night in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Rockies and Great Plains on Friday, as a trough moves inland across the West Coast. Moisture advection will take place over the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints likely reaching the 60s F across much of Texas. The strongest instability is forecast by mid to late evening from far West Texas into eastern New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop. Additional convection is expected further to the east across west-central Texas. During the overnight period, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand northeastward into parts of the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas. Forecast soundings from far West Texas into the Texas Panhandle Friday evening and overnight have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for supercells with large hail. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. The severe threat could persist to late in the period. ..Broyles.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts, will be possible Friday night in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Rockies and Great Plains on Friday, as a trough moves inland across the West Coast. Moisture advection will take place over the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints likely reaching the 60s F across much of Texas. The strongest instability is forecast by mid to late evening from far West Texas into eastern New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop. Additional convection is expected further to the east across west-central Texas. During the overnight period, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand northeastward into parts of the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas. Forecast soundings from far West Texas into the Texas Panhandle Friday evening and overnight have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for supercells with large hail. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. The severe threat could persist to late in the period. ..Broyles.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts, will be possible Friday night in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Rockies and Great Plains on Friday, as a trough moves inland across the West Coast. Moisture advection will take place over the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints likely reaching the 60s F across much of Texas. The strongest instability is forecast by mid to late evening from far West Texas into eastern New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop. Additional convection is expected further to the east across west-central Texas. During the overnight period, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand northeastward into parts of the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas. Forecast soundings from far West Texas into the Texas Panhandle Friday evening and overnight have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for supercells with large hail. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. The severe threat could persist to late in the period. ..Broyles.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts, will be possible Friday night in parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Rockies and Great Plains on Friday, as a trough moves inland across the West Coast. Moisture advection will take place over the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints likely reaching the 60s F across much of Texas. The strongest instability is forecast by mid to late evening from far West Texas into eastern New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop. Additional convection is expected further to the east across west-central Texas. During the overnight period, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand northeastward into parts of the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas. Forecast soundings from far West Texas into the Texas Panhandle Friday evening and overnight have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. This environment would be sufficient for supercells with large hail. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. The severe threat could persist to late in the period. ..Broyles.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will intensify further as it ejects eastward over the central US today and tonight. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the trough, deepening a lee low over parts of CO/KS. The low will move northeast along a cold front across KS and OK, drawing an unusually moist air mass northward across the eastern Plains. To the west, dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough ejects eastward a 70-80 kt mid-level jet will round the base of the trough over the southern and central High Plains. West of a lee low and intensifying dryline, downslope winds of 25-35 mph are likely across much of the eastern Panhandle and western OK. Aided by mid-level subsidence and unusually warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F, afternoon RH values of 8-15% are expected through peak heating. The overlap of several hours of hot, dry and windy conditions over very dry fuels lends higher confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Additionally, the cold front trailing the low will pass over the High Plains later this evening. A notable wind shift to north/northwesterly is expected after 00z. Strong winds could continue into the overnight hours exacerbating fire concerns despite increasing RH. ...Great Lakes... Dry and windy conditions are possible ahead of the deepening trough over parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest today. While RH values should steadily increase as moisture advects northward, sustained southerly winds near 15-20 mph will overlap with extremely dry fuels. While clouds and the increasing moisture should limit marginal RH, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible this afternoon given the strong winds and unusually dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more