Aggregator

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0696 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 696 TORNADO OK 302255Z - 310500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms over north-central Oklahoma will continue to intensify and spread eastward through the evening, posing a risk for damaging winds gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of Bartlesville OK to 60 miles south of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...WW 694...WW 695... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W EMP TO 30 ENE SDA. ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-019-021-031-037-043-045-049-059-073-085-087- 091-099-103-107-111-121-125-133-139-177-197-205-207-209- 302340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY CRAWFORD DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC003-011-013-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-075-081-087-095-147- 165-177-217-227-302340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW CDJ TO 30 ESE LWD TO 25 NE OXV TO 25 S ALO. ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-123-135-157-179-302340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS MAHASKA MONROE POWESHIEK WAPELLO MOC001-079-171-197-211-302340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR GRUNDY PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW CDJ TO 30 ESE LWD TO 25 NE OXV TO 25 S ALO. ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-123-135-157-179-302340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS MAHASKA MONROE POWESHIEK WAPELLO MOC001-079-171-197-211-302340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR GRUNDY PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 693 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO 301830Z - 310000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern/Central Iowa Extreme Northeast Kansas Northern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing thunderstorm cluster will likely continue to pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds potentially up to 70-80 mph as it continues east-northeastward across northern Missouri and southern/central Iowa this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 5 miles northeast of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0694 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 694 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CSM TO 40 NNE CSM TO 25 W END TO 30 E AVK TO 25 WSW ICT TO 40 ENE HUT TO 30 WNW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166 ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 694 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-035-173-191-302340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE COWLEY SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC011-015-017-027-039-047-051-053-071-073-083-087-103-109-119- 149-302340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER GARFIELD GRADY GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA Read more

MD 2166 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 694... FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...southern Kansas and northwest/central/northern Oklahoma. Concerning...Tornado Watch 694... Valid 302045Z - 302215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 694 continues. SUMMARY...The large hail/severe wind threat is expected to continue through the afternoon as supercells move across northwest Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. The tornado threat is expected to increase this evening. DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed along the dryline in western Oklahoma. Thus far, one measured wind gust of 70 mph has been observed with MRMS MESH suggesting around 1 to 1.25 inch hail. As these supercells mature, expect the threat for large hail and severe wind gusts to continue. Low-level shear is quite weak this afternoon (60-70 m2/s2 0-500 SRH per VNX VWP), but is forecast to increase substantially after 22-23Z as the low-level jet strengthens. During this time is when the greatest tornado threat is anticipated. Eventually, expect storms to congeal into a squall line with severe wind and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes as the primary threat. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 35059955 36819900 37909829 38429790 38619757 38649711 38519651 37559635 35999661 35249716 34789802 34689863 35059955 Read more

MD 2164 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 302003Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Airmass recovery should result in some severe storms this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Widespread showers and thunderstorms across northeast Kansas has stunted destabilization thus far. However, some clearing and low-level moisture advection in the wake of the morning activity has started to destabilize parts of northeast Kansas. A line of storms is starting to organize across central Kansas which is expected to continue to grow upscale as it moves northeast. Expect sufficient destabilization ahead of this line of storms for some threat for severe wind gusts, large hail, and potentially a few tornadoes (along and south of the front). A tornado watch will likely need to be issued within the next hour or two across northeast Kansas, to fill the gap between watch 693 and 694. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38709796 39259727 39969597 40299515 40279402 40039335 39259334 38549390 38279506 38109600 38219708 38479809 38709796 Read more

MD 2165 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693... FOR SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...Southern Iowa and far northern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693... Valid 302005Z - 302200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693 continues. SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to pose a risk of damaging winds across southern Iowa and far northern Missouri over the next few hours. However, downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated given recent convective trends. DISCUSSION...An organized bowing segment with a history of producing severe winds continues to migrate across south-central IA. However, a decrease in vertically integrated ice, VIL, and echo top height has been noted over the past 30 minutes, suggesting that the severe wind threat may be decreasing in spatial extent and/or intensity to some degree. This is likely attributable to the QLCS meandering into a slightly more stable air mass where daytime heating has been muted due to preceding clouds and light rain. Despite these trends, gradual destabilization continues immediately downstream of the line and ahead of the cold front due to strong low-level warm/moist advection with MLCAPE estimates up to 500 J/kg per mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings. The combination of modest destabilization/ascent and favorable deep-layer, line-orthogonal wind shear may maintain the severe wind threat downstream through the remainder of WW 693. Additional watch issuance into southeast/eastern IA remains uncertain and will be conditional on convective trends over the next 1-2 hours. ..Moore.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41459431 42289321 42459298 42499275 42479252 42399239 42279228 41519209 40899209 40549230 40359263 40289311 40459436 40639442 41049442 41459431 Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0695 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FLV TO 40 SW LWD TO 20 WSW LWD TO 15 ENE LWD TO 40 N OXV TO 25 SW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165 ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-099-117-123-125-127-135-157-171-179-185-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POWESHIEK TAMA WAPELLO WAYNE MOC001-003-021-061-063-075-079-081-129-171-197-211-302240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW BUCHANAN DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON MERCER PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0694 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 694 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW CSM TO 45 N CSM TO 10 S AVK TO 20 NNE P28 TO 25 ESE SLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166 ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 694 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-035-077-079-095-115-173-191-302240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN MARION SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-011-015-017-027-039-043-047-051-053-071-073-083-087-093- 103-109-119-149-302240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRADY GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA Read more

Victoria entered stage II of its drought contingency plan after the Guadalupe River flow fell to 150 cubic feet per second. Under stage II restrictions, the city can no longer pump water from the river. Voluntary water conservation was encouraged. Crossroads Today (Victoria, Texas), Oct 29, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal by the end of this week. During the weekend, another strong upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast. This feature will then slowly progress to the east into the Plains early next week. Upper-level ridging will build into the West Coast in the wake of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will then build into the Great Basin late this weekend into Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern becomes less predictable, though model consensus suggests another trough will move into the West by the middle of next week. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Northeast... The cold front expected to pass on Friday appears as though it will not produce much rainfall. A dry airmass behind the front will lead to falling RH values during the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will be undergoing a slow weakening trend through the day and mixing depths will not be overly high to mix down stronger winds aloft. At least locally elevated conditions are possible and trends in wind speeds will have to be monitored as fuels remain quite dry. ...Southern California... Trends in model guidance have shown the track of the next strong upper-level trough to be farther north than previous days. This trend is noted in both the ECMWF and GFS. This would suggest overall less precipitation potential. That said, offshore winds will increase Sunday night into Tuesday morning which will also include some upper-level wind support. Model trends will continue to be monitored, but current fuel data suggest generally unperceptive fuels and there is still some uncertainty in the stability of these latest model trends. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal by the end of this week. During the weekend, another strong upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast. This feature will then slowly progress to the east into the Plains early next week. Upper-level ridging will build into the West Coast in the wake of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will then build into the Great Basin late this weekend into Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern becomes less predictable, though model consensus suggests another trough will move into the West by the middle of next week. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Northeast... The cold front expected to pass on Friday appears as though it will not produce much rainfall. A dry airmass behind the front will lead to falling RH values during the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will be undergoing a slow weakening trend through the day and mixing depths will not be overly high to mix down stronger winds aloft. At least locally elevated conditions are possible and trends in wind speeds will have to be monitored as fuels remain quite dry. ...Southern California... Trends in model guidance have shown the track of the next strong upper-level trough to be farther north than previous days. This trend is noted in both the ECMWF and GFS. This would suggest overall less precipitation potential. That said, offshore winds will increase Sunday night into Tuesday morning which will also include some upper-level wind support. Model trends will continue to be monitored, but current fuel data suggest generally unperceptive fuels and there is still some uncertainty in the stability of these latest model trends. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal by the end of this week. During the weekend, another strong upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast. This feature will then slowly progress to the east into the Plains early next week. Upper-level ridging will build into the West Coast in the wake of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will then build into the Great Basin late this weekend into Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern becomes less predictable, though model consensus suggests another trough will move into the West by the middle of next week. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Northeast... The cold front expected to pass on Friday appears as though it will not produce much rainfall. A dry airmass behind the front will lead to falling RH values during the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will be undergoing a slow weakening trend through the day and mixing depths will not be overly high to mix down stronger winds aloft. At least locally elevated conditions are possible and trends in wind speeds will have to be monitored as fuels remain quite dry. ...Southern California... Trends in model guidance have shown the track of the next strong upper-level trough to be farther north than previous days. This trend is noted in both the ECMWF and GFS. This would suggest overall less precipitation potential. That said, offshore winds will increase Sunday night into Tuesday morning which will also include some upper-level wind support. Model trends will continue to be monitored, but current fuel data suggest generally unperceptive fuels and there is still some uncertainty in the stability of these latest model trends. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal by the end of this week. During the weekend, another strong upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast. This feature will then slowly progress to the east into the Plains early next week. Upper-level ridging will build into the West Coast in the wake of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will then build into the Great Basin late this weekend into Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern becomes less predictable, though model consensus suggests another trough will move into the West by the middle of next week. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Northeast... The cold front expected to pass on Friday appears as though it will not produce much rainfall. A dry airmass behind the front will lead to falling RH values during the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will be undergoing a slow weakening trend through the day and mixing depths will not be overly high to mix down stronger winds aloft. At least locally elevated conditions are possible and trends in wind speeds will have to be monitored as fuels remain quite dry. ...Southern California... Trends in model guidance have shown the track of the next strong upper-level trough to be farther north than previous days. This trend is noted in both the ECMWF and GFS. This would suggest overall less precipitation potential. That said, offshore winds will increase Sunday night into Tuesday morning which will also include some upper-level wind support. Model trends will continue to be monitored, but current fuel data suggest generally unperceptive fuels and there is still some uncertainty in the stability of these latest model trends. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal by the end of this week. During the weekend, another strong upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast. This feature will then slowly progress to the east into the Plains early next week. Upper-level ridging will build into the West Coast in the wake of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will then build into the Great Basin late this weekend into Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern becomes less predictable, though model consensus suggests another trough will move into the West by the middle of next week. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Northeast... The cold front expected to pass on Friday appears as though it will not produce much rainfall. A dry airmass behind the front will lead to falling RH values during the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will be undergoing a slow weakening trend through the day and mixing depths will not be overly high to mix down stronger winds aloft. At least locally elevated conditions are possible and trends in wind speeds will have to be monitored as fuels remain quite dry. ...Southern California... Trends in model guidance have shown the track of the next strong upper-level trough to be farther north than previous days. This trend is noted in both the ECMWF and GFS. This would suggest overall less precipitation potential. That said, offshore winds will increase Sunday night into Tuesday morning which will also include some upper-level wind support. Model trends will continue to be monitored, but current fuel data suggest generally unperceptive fuels and there is still some uncertainty in the stability of these latest model trends. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal by the end of this week. During the weekend, another strong upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast. This feature will then slowly progress to the east into the Plains early next week. Upper-level ridging will build into the West Coast in the wake of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will then build into the Great Basin late this weekend into Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern becomes less predictable, though model consensus suggests another trough will move into the West by the middle of next week. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Northeast... The cold front expected to pass on Friday appears as though it will not produce much rainfall. A dry airmass behind the front will lead to falling RH values during the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will be undergoing a slow weakening trend through the day and mixing depths will not be overly high to mix down stronger winds aloft. At least locally elevated conditions are possible and trends in wind speeds will have to be monitored as fuels remain quite dry. ...Southern California... Trends in model guidance have shown the track of the next strong upper-level trough to be farther north than previous days. This trend is noted in both the ECMWF and GFS. This would suggest overall less precipitation potential. That said, offshore winds will increase Sunday night into Tuesday morning which will also include some upper-level wind support. Model trends will continue to be monitored, but current fuel data suggest generally unperceptive fuels and there is still some uncertainty in the stability of these latest model trends. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more