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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

MD 2176 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697... FOR SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...southwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697... Valid 310407Z - 310500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for a couple tornadoes and damaging wind swaths may persist across southwest Missouri into the early morning. DISCUSSION...A tornadic supercell in far northeast OK has recently merged into the broader convective line that extends across much of MO from the northeast to the southwest. The Springfield VWP ahead of this line supports a rather enlarged low-level hodograph with 0-1 km SRH around 500 m2/s2. Tornado potential will persist where surface dew points can remain at or above 64 F, which currently extend as far northeast as the SGF area. An embedded bowing structure that has formed north of the merged supercell should yield an uptick in damaging wind potential as well across southwest MO. With time, convection will spread farther to the northeast and away from the increasingly confined instability plume. This suggests the primary severe threat will be over the next couple hours. ..Grams.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 37029434 37359407 37619380 37899356 38279306 38259262 37959226 37159253 36859284 36649326 36529402 36799427 37029434 Read more

MD 2175 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TO SOUTHERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...eastern to southern OK...northwest AR...and north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310343Z - 310445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...While the overall severe threat has diminished, potential for sporadic severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and a brief tornado or two may persist into the early morning. Replacement of WW 696 with a broader severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION...A linear convective band running the length of OK from the northeast to southwest, and an emerging line over the TX Big Country should persist eastward overnight. The OK convection has been undercut by convective outflows with a distinct waning of overall convective intensity during the past hour. Still, with a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from north TX into east-central OK, it is plausible that an uptick in storm intensification might occur as the front impinges on the plume. The front should accelerate overnight, while low-level winds ahead of it become more veered. This will shrink hodograph curvature and suggests sporadic strong to localized severe gusts and marginal severe hail should be the main hazards. ..Grams/Hart.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36159531 36389436 36349368 36079361 35009439 34559507 33209674 32429857 32649905 33449862 33959823 34699741 36159531 Read more

WW 0697 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW SGF TO 40 WSW UIN TO 40 WNW UIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176. ..GRAMS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-009-011-015-019-027-029-039-043-051-053-057-059-067-073- 077-085-089-097-105-109-111-119-125-127-131-135-137-139-141-145- 151-153-161-167-169-173-185-209-213-215-225-229-310540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BARRY BARTON BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY HOWARD JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE LEWIS MCDONALD MARIES MARION MILLER MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI RALLS ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CHK TO 25 NNW GMJ. ..GRAMS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC035-037-061-063-077-091-097-101-107-111-115-121-131-133-143- 145-310540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CHK TO 25 NNW GMJ. ..GRAMS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC035-037-061-063-077-091-097-101-107-111-115-121-131-133-143- 145-310540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CHK TO 25 NNW GMJ. ..GRAMS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC035-037-061-063-077-091-097-101-107-111-115-121-131-133-143- 145-310540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CHK TO 25 NNW GMJ. ..GRAMS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC035-037-061-063-077-091-097-101-107-111-115-121-131-133-143- 145-310540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CHK TO 25 NNW GMJ. ..GRAMS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC035-037-061-063-077-091-097-101-107-111-115-121-131-133-143- 145-310540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 696 TORNADO OK 302255Z - 310500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms over north-central Oklahoma will continue to intensify and spread eastward through the evening, posing a risk for damaging winds gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of Bartlesville OK to 60 miles south of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...WW 694...WW 695... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 2174 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 694...696... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0915 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 694...696... Valid 310215Z - 310345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 694, 696 continues. SUMMARY...An all-hazards severe threat will persist through midnight, with the risk for a couple tornadoes greater over northeast to east-central Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...An extensive linear convective band along the cold front has a history of sporadic wind damage from severe gusts, measured recently to 71 mph at the Fort Cobb OK-Mesonet. A separate, nearly linear convective line has separately evolved out of earlier semi-discrete convection along the far southeast KS/northeast OK border area. The frontal convection continues to be largely undercut by outflows along it, limiting potential for sustained low-level mesocyclones. The threat for a couple tornadoes may be greatest along the southern portion of the lead convective band and with any discrete supercells that might be sustained from southeast into east-central OK. Otherwise, the expectation is for a continued sporadic severe wind threat and isolated hail. ..Grams.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35559756 34769861 34529823 34819709 34599596 34909514 36029429 36679409 36979482 36909581 36309619 35559756 Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CQB TO 25 WNW TUL TO 35 ENE BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174. ..GRAMS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC035-037-061-063-077-081-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117- 121-125-131-133-143-145-147-310440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG CREEK HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER LINCOLN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0697 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 697 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC001-007-009-015-019-027-029-039-043-051-053-057-059-067-073- 077-085-089-103-105-109-111-119-121-125-127-131-135-137-139-141- 151-153-161-167-169-173-175-185-205-209-213-215-225-229- 310440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDRAIN BARRY BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY HOWARD KNOX LACLEDE LAWRENCE LEWIS MCDONALD MACON MARIES MARION MILLER MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI RALLS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 2173 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...western and central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310200Z - 310330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A maturing QLCS and more isolated convection ahead of it are evolving across eastern KS and southwest MO. The risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes should increase this evening. A new WW may be needed, but the eastern extent remains unclear. DISCUSSION...As of 0150 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed the QLCS over eastern KS and far western MO has increased in organization and intensity this evening. With multiple embedded bowing segments, several damaging wind reports and measured severe gusts have been reported so far. Storms should approach the eastern edge of WW 659 over the next 1-2 hours. The environment downstream across central MO is unstable, but buoyancy decreases with eastern extent. Strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt remains in place supporting storm organization. This could support a risk for damaging winds across central MO this evening, particularly with the southern half of the QLCS. Low-level shear is also strong beneath the core of a 50 kt low-level jet. Isolated mesovortex tornadoes will be possible with the stronger bowing segments. The primary uncertainty remains the limited buoyancy with northeastward extent. Recent HRRR guidance suggests the QLCS will remain fairly well organized to continue posing a severe risk into south-central MO. Given the potential for a continued severe threat a new WW is being considered. ..Lyons/Hart.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 36549440 37679430 38379397 39209340 40029285 40419257 40669198 40509162 40219148 39929143 39649137 39109143 38369171 37349204 36829234 36579273 36499333 36509392 36529423 36549440 Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BVO TO 10 S CNU TO 40 N JLN TO 15 WSW SZL TO 30 SE OTM. ..LYONS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC099-125-133-310440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC013-041-083-101-159-195-310440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES CHARITON HENRY JOHNSON PETTIS SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BVO TO 10 S CNU TO 40 N JLN TO 15 WSW SZL TO 30 SE OTM. ..LYONS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC099-125-133-310440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC013-041-083-101-159-195-310440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES CHARITON HENRY JOHNSON PETTIS SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BVO TO 10 S CNU TO 40 N JLN TO 15 WSW SZL TO 30 SE OTM. ..LYONS..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC099-125-133-310440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO MOC013-041-083-101-159-195-310440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES CHARITON HENRY JOHNSON PETTIS SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more