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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

WW 0634 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 634 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 634 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-182040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-182040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-182040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK Read more

MD 1944 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...western Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181833Z - 182000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...High-based storms with isolated severe wind gusts expected this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A northward moving surge of tropical moisture is moving into southern Utah early this afternoon. Moderate instability has developed across western Utah where temperatures have warmed into the 80s. Expect at least scattered storm coverage this afternoon, but weak shear (15-25 knots per RAP forecast soundings) will be a limiting factor to storm organization. Nonetheless, given the deeply-mixed boundary layer, a few severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 37541408 39181437 41801403 42101291 41841184 40231127 38901116 37641123 36851145 36751208 36691321 37541408 Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0636 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0636 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more