Water Fire (Wildfire)

3 years 4 months ago
Today's update - May 2, 2022 - will be the FINAL UPDATE for the Water Fire unless there is a significant change to report.  The Water Fire was detected on April 28th at 2:30 in the afternoon. It is on the Gila National Forest and is located about 3 miles east of the Wilderness Ranger Station and 6 miles north of Mimbres, NM. The area that the fire is burning in has minimal road access, however ground forces are being staged at strategic locations as the fire slowly progresses up East Canyon. Winds out of the southwest, accompanied by hot, dry weather, and drought-stressed vegetation (heavy to moderate loads of dead, dry grass with Piñon Juniper trees scattered throughout the area). On April 28th, when the fire was detected, aerial resources were committed to the incident and have been the primary resource for reconnaissance and suppression tactics. Air tankers were utilized to help hinder the fire's growth by strategically dropping fire retardant, so that it would slow the fire's...

Tunnel Fire BAER (Burned Area Emergency Response)

3 years 4 months ago
 The Tunnel Fire Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team has completed the Soil Burn Severity (SBS) map and is undertaking the next stage of the BAER process—namely completing risk assessments to critical BAER values on National Forest System lands, proposing possible post-fire emergency stabilization actions, and completing the Burned Area Report.  Critical BAER values for the Tunnel Fire include the following: Human Life and Safety; Forest Service owned property such as campgrounds roads, and trails; Natural resources such as soil productivity and hydrologic function, threatened and endangered species habitat, and native plant communities; Cultural resources. Yesterday, the BAER Team completed the risk assessment matrix and developed post-fire emergency stabilization actions to mitigate identified risks that could reduce post-fire risks to the critical BAER values and began writing the BAER assessment report. In the coming days, the Tunnel BAER team will present these...

SPC May 7, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years 4 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sat May 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE CENTRAL SOUTH/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and isolated severe gusts are possible across western and central Nebraska, mainly this evening and tonight. Other isolated severe storms are possible across parts of North Dakota, north and central Texas, and the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Two substantial, slow-moving cyclones will be the dominant mid/upper-level features this period, for convective purposes: 1. A vortex now appears over the eastern WV/southern PA/northern VA area, with troughing south-southwestward to the northwestern Gulf. The 500-mb low should move slowly eastward to the Delmarva Peninsula through the overnight hours, with trough across eastern NC, central/southern FL and intervening Atlantic waters by 12Z tomorrow. 2. A very large, complex gyre will arise from two initially well- separated cyclone centers now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over northern AB and over the northeast Pacific near 50N148W. The Pacific portion will approach coastal OR by 12Z, while vorticity maxima consolidate around the erratically drifting AB center. Cyclonic flow and height falls will expand across most of the western half of the CONUS, as a series of vorticity maxima pivot from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. In between those cyclones, a high-amplitude mid/upper ridge -- initially from the southern High Plains to Lake Superior and far northern ON -- will pivot slowly to near a HOU-LIT-MKE-James Bay axis by the end of the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis depicted an occluded low over WV, nearly stacked with the mid/upper low, and a triple-point low over Atlantic waters east of the Hampton Roads region. A cold front was drawn from there across northern FL to extreme southeastern LA, becoming a warm front across southeast and central TX. Another cold front was drawn from a low in the JDN/GGW area across central WY and northwestern CO. The eastern cold front will proceed slowly southeastward down the FL Peninsula, while becoming quasistationary from northeastern Gulf to LA, and moving back northward as a warm front over east TX and into western/southern OK by 00Z. To its southwest and west, a dryline should develop and mix eastward to a maximum late-afternoon extent (minimum longitudes) in an arc from near DRT-SEP-SPS-CDS, then northward over the eastern TX/OK Panhandles, western KS and western NE. In western NE, the dryline will be overtaken by a cold front that will move eastward/ southeastward across the northern Plains and central High Plains through the period. By 00Z, the cold front should reach the central Dakotas, western NS and extreme northern CO. ...Dakotas, Nebraska... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, initially late this afternoon over portions of SD and perhaps ND, then this evening and tonight across parts of western/central NE. The greatest concentration of convective/severe potential should be in the SD/NE corridor, where large hail will be possible from early, relatively discrete and potentially supercellular activity. A transition to upscale clustering with some severe-wind threat also exists this evening before the foregoing boundary layer stabilizes too much. Being well north of the southern Plains warm front, moisture will be limited in both magnitude and lateral extent, with a narrow corridor of mainly 50s F surface dew points extending from central KS to the central Dakotas, east of the dryline and cold front. Still, this and insolation will foster enough late-afternoon/early evening mixing/drying of the boundary layer to boost DCAPE and weaken MLCINH substantially, supporting the gust potential beneath 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values. Time series of forecast soundings suggesting an "inverted V" subcloud thermodynamic profile in the short time window before deep convective initiation. Veering and strengthening of flow with height, from surface through midlevels, will support 45-55-kt effective-shear vectors aligned nearly orthogonal to the front in SD, with initial discrete/semi-discrete modes until some mergers and cold-pool processes occur. Activity should transition from a hail-dominant to wind-dominant threat before shifting east and weakening in greater stability this evening. Scattered thunderstorms also are forecast to develop over portions of western into central NE -- but this evening, generally as the front overtakes the dryline, and a combination of height falls and shots of DCVA occur in midlevels. Supported by the southerly LLJ, and its associated combination of increasing moisture and favorable storm-relative winds above the surface, elevated supercells and organized multicellular clusters are expected to offer a large-hail threat. Isolated severe gusts may occur as well, where sufficient downward momentum and cold-pool forcing from mesobeta-scale upscale growth can allow downdrafts to penetrate a near-surface stable layer locally. Continued eastward movement of activity atop progressively more-stable boundary-layer conditions should reduce storm intensity overnight. ...Central/south FL... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue, predominantly south of the cold front, offering sporadic, marginally severe hail and damaging gusts to near severe limits. Away from small-scale boundaries (outflows, sea breezes), warm- sector flow generally will be nearly unidirectional from the southwest or west-southwest. While this will limit low-level shear and convergence, convective potential will be supported increasingly by strong surface heating and favorable boundary-layer moisture (with surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F). MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg should be common, amidst 25-35-kt effective-shear magnitudes, for a dominant, sporadically organized multicellular mode. Convection should weaken by evening as low-level thermodynamic, frontal, and prefrontal-boundary lift all diminish. ...Portions of central/north-central TX... Although this area will be under, or very close to, the upper ridge, an isolated intense thunderstorm or two may erupt by late afternoon with a conditional risk for severe gusts and large hail. Intense diabatic surface heating on both sides of the broad dryline bulge may be sufficient to remove most or all EML-related capping for a few hours, in the presence of roughly 70 F surface dew points, and additional lift support from the dryline. With a deep troposphere and steep low/middle-level lapse rates expected, MLCAPE should exceed 4000 J/kg -- much of that in suitable hail-growth layers with no shortage of inflow-layer moisture for precip generation. A well-mixed subcloud layer also will enable strong-severe downdrafts to the surface in any storms that can develop. Lack of greater mid/ upper-level winds will limit deep shear (e.g., effective-shear magnitudes generally 20-30 kt expected), though flow will veer well with height in the low levels. Any severe threat should wind down quickly this evening as the boundary layer cools, the dryline retreats, and MLCINH increases. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 05/07/2022 Read more

More human remains discovered in Lake Mead in Nevada

3 years 4 months ago
A barrel containing human remains was found in Lake Mead on May 1. Officials expect that more such discoveries may follow with the lake being at a historic low. The highest water intake became visible last week, forcing Las Vegas to draw water from deeper in the lake. Associated Press News (New York), May 2, 2022 Human skeletal remains were discovered at Callville Bay in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area on May 7. KTLA-TV WB 5 Los Angeles (Calif.), May 8, 2022

Fenced Units Prescribed Fires (Prescribed Fire)

3 years 4 months ago
 Location: The burn units are located on the Bradford Ranger District of the Allegheny National Forest. The project is within portions of Warren and Forest Counties (Appendix A-1) and encompasses three separate NEPA documents, Coalbed Run, West Branch Tionesta and Meads Mills environmental analyses (EA). The fire burn units referenced in Table 1 total 140 acres and are titled based on the respective EA that each are derived from. The individual units are completely enclosed with an eight-foot-tall, woven wire deer fence, with one or two gates to allow access at each unit.   The primary carrier of fire is broadleaf timber litter, classified as Fire behavior fuel model (FBFM 40) TL6 - Moderate Load Broadleaf Litter. Within the last decade each unit has been treated by different management methods referenced in Table 2. Stands within the fenced units consist of mature forest, largely dominated by oak associated forest types, such as mixed oak and oak hardwood. Undesirable saplings...

SPC MD 671

3 years 4 months ago
MD 0671 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST LA INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022 Areas affected...far southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061449Z - 061545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A supercell or two may pose a threat for strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from overnight convection extends from far southeast LA to just offshore the MS coast and into the western FL Peninsula as of 1430z. A north to south oriented confluence zone is also noted from eastern Okaloosa County in FL southward into the offshore Gulf waters. Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along these boundaries with a couple of supercells noted. A very moist airmass resides across the region with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s amid modest midlevel lapse rates and moderate vertical shear. The VWP data from KEVX shows an enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodograph indicative of rotation. These cells may periodic pose a threat for strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado. Much of the activity across southeast LA into the immediate coast/offshore islands of MS/AL will shift offshore as the outflow boundary continues to sag south/southeast. The storms further east along the confluence zone will slowly lift north/northeast but main train across a narrow path over the western FL Peninsula over the next 1-2 hours. MLCINH increases with northward extent into southeast AL due to impacts from an early morning QLCS and convection may tend to weaken with northward extent at least in the short term. However, clearing behind earlier morning showers/cloudiness will allow for airmass recovery over the next few hours. The spatial/temporal threat will remain limited across southeast LA before convection shifts offshore. However, the threat may persist/increase across portions of far southern AL into the FL Peninsula and a watch may be needed across parts of this area. ..Leitman.. 05/06/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29749044 30138962 30418875 30868735 31388667 31708605 31778585 31668547 31318515 30788520 30258551 29968609 29708669 29408773 29098882 28968959 29059020 29509046 29689049 29749044 Read more

SPC May 6, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years 4 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast to Ohio Valley and Tidewater region today. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible, with the primary threat expected between late morning and early evening. ...Synopsis... A strongly progressive upper-air pattern will continue through the period, over the CONUS, with the main feature pertinent to severe-thunderstorm potential being the cyclone now centered over the Ozarks. The associated 500-mb low is expected to move approximately east-northeastward up the lower Ohio Valley to the area between EVV-CVG by 00Z, with a trough southward over the FL Panhandle. Associated mid/upper-level cyclonic flow will cover most of the CONUS east of the southern Plains and south of the Great Lakes. By 12Z, the center of the cyclone will decelerate and reach WV, while overall troughing amplifies over the East, from the lower Great lakes to the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, height falls aloft are expected over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Rockies regions ahead of a strong shortwave trough moving inland from the Pacific. Associated shots of DCVA/destabilization aloft -- over weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture -- will support general thunderstorm potential. At 11Z, surface analysis showed the primary low over extreme southeastern MO with cold front southward across the Mid-South and central LA. A wavy warm front was drawn from the Atlantic, east of the Outer Banks, across extreme southern NC near ILM, central SC, northeastern GA, eastern portions of TN/KY, to the lower Ohio Valley and the low. The low should migrate eastward to near HTS by 00Z, with cold front across western parts of VA and the Carolinas, western GA, southern AL, and southern LA. The warm front should reach the southern Delmarva Peninsula and southern/central VA by 00Z then decelerate, with a low developing thereon over the southern Chesapeake Bay region by 12Z. By then, the cold front should extend from that low over the Outer Banks to northern FL. The specific cold-frontal position through this afternoon and overnight -- especially over the Gulf Coast States -- may be rendered marginally to not relevant because of prefrontal convective stabilization that has made southwestern parts of the forecast more complex and conditional with time (see below). However, colder air aloft farther north across northern parts of the outlook areas may compensate for weaker boundary-layer theta-e enough to maintain at least a marginal severe threat. ...Southeastern CONUS and Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected through this evening, shifting eastward to northeastward across the region in the form of mixed modes (quasi-linear, clustered/multicellular, and probably a few discrete supercells). Damaging gusts, at least a few tornadoes, and sporadic large hail are all still possible -- with damaging to severe gusts being the most common type of storm report expected. A large area of severe-thunderstorm potential exists, though more uncertain now on the southwest side. That part of the outlook is complicated by a long-lived, quasi-linear convective system now weakening across portions of southwestern GA and the FL Panhandle, leaving behind a substantial theta-e deficit over parts of AL and most of MS. Though now weakening, this activity has progressed across the region faster and/or much better-organized than almost all synoptic and convection-allowing guidance has suggested, from 00Z initializations right to the past few hours. For example, the HRRR overnight consistently has been unable to keep up with reality, in terms of being too slow with convective speed and too fast to dissipate the complex. The few progs that have maintained a better-organized squall line (e.g., the 00Z high-res FV3 CAM) still were a few hours too slow with convective translation -- but in planar thermal/buoyancy guidance, more-reasonably indicate the stabilizing effects of the wake cold pool, when spatially adjusted eastward. Favorable destabilization between the outflow boundary (which arcs well southwestward offshore from AL/MS/LA) and the cold front now appears more uncertain, though some potential still exists for either: 1. Strong-severe convection to form along/ahead of the cold front at some ill-defined southern rim of the favorable large-scale lift/cooling aloft related to the cyclone, but in a moist layer that is weaker and shallower than earlier expected, and 2. The outflow boundary to weaken enough for prefrontal/low-level return flow (especially above the surface) to result in favorable theta-e advection, especially into the near-coastal southeastern LA to western Panhandle corridor closest to the remnant boundary. Given the uncertainties, and the reasonable lack of substantial/ organized activity over the coastal plain behind the MCS in progs that show it better, unconditional severe probabilities accordingly have been reduced (but not eliminated) in much of the post- convective area. Further refinements are likely in this region as mesoscale trends and later, more-reliable guidance warrant. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely the same farther north into 1. The Tennessee/Ohio Valley regions, where the influence of stronger cooling/instability aloft will be more important to convective potential, and 2. Over the eastern lobe of the outlook encompassing portions of eastern AL and GA to the Tidewater area, where a weakened MCS will be less to negligibly influential on destabilization from both diurnal/diabatic and advective processes. The CAPE/shear parameter space, especially near the warm front where enlarged hodographs are probable, still is expected to favor supercells with a relative maxima of tornado potential both away from the most strongly stabilized areas of the morning cold pool, and over parts of the VA/NC Piedmont eastward. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 05/06/2022 Read more

Fire restrictions in most of Arizona's national forests

3 years 4 months ago
Fire restrictions took effect in most national forests in Arizona on May 5 as the fire danger was heightened by dry conditions and parched fuels. The Apache-Sitgreaves, Coconino, Kaibab, Prescott and Tonto forests enacted restrictions that bar campfires and use of stoves fueled by charcoal, coal or wood except within a developed recreation site. Smoking is not allowed except in a vehicle, inside a building or within a developed recreation site. Associated Press News (New York), May 5, 2022

Rain came too late for Oklahoma winter wheat

3 years 4 months ago
Rain fell too late to rescue much of Oklahoma’s wheat crop, the smallest in eight years, according to the executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. The commission projected the state's winter wheat crop at 57.05 million bushels, about half the size of the 2021 crop and the smallest since 2014. The commission predicted an average winter wheat yield of 23.5 bushels per acre, also the state's least since 2014. K.C. hard red winter wheat futures are trading above $11 a bushel this spring for the first time since 2008. Oklahoma is the second largest wheat producer in the U.S. Reuters (New York), May 5, 2022

Disaster declaration due to New Mexico wildfires

3 years 4 months ago
President Joe Biden approved a disaster declaration for the parts of New Mexico affected by intense wildfires since early April. The largest wildfire in the U.S. is presently burning in northern New Mexico near Las Vegas, a town of 13,000 people, and has consumed 250 square miles of high alpine forest and grasslands and destroyed about 170 houses. Associated Press News (New York), May 5, 2022

Smoke Stack Lightning Fire (Wildfire)

3 years 4 months ago
The Smoke Stack Lightning Fire started on May 2nd in Stonewall County approximately 4 miles Northeast of Aspermont from a lightning strike, Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) received a request for assistance around 16:00 and have been working in unified command with local responders. Do to high winds and critically dry fuel beds the fire has been showing extreme fire behavior, torching out juniper shrubs and jumping existing containment lines. Multiple structure in the area have been threatened and engine crews have been put on structure protection. Several wind shifts have occurred causing the fire to make runs in multiple directions and crews having to back off the

Anxiety over Southern California's water supplies

3 years 4 months ago
California water officials worry that Southern California could run out of water this summer, barring significant cutbacks on water use. The present megadrought remains the West’s worst in the past 1,200 years, and the human-caused climate crisis has made it 72% worse. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California mandated water conservation in parts of Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Ventura counties that get water from the State Water Project. The MWD requests that all Southern Californians curb their water use by 35%. If water conservation is too low, Metropolitan Water District says it is prepared to ban all outdoor watering on September 1. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), May 4, 2022

Some drought rules made permanent in Marin, California

3 years 4 months ago
The Marin Municipal Water District Board of Directors voted unanimously on May 3 to continue limiting sprinkler use to two days per week instead of the three days allowed before drought restrictions were adopted in 2021. Drip irrigation will be allowed three days a week. All pool owners in the district must also have a pool cover. A few rules were rescinded also, concerning car washing at home and the ban on landscape planting. Marin Independent Journal (Calif.), May 4, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 years 4 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The Elevated risk area is expanded southward to encompass portions of the Sacramento, Guadelupe, and Davis mountain ranges in southern NM/southwest TX. Latest surface observations already show RH values near 15% with further reduction likely by late afternoon amid deep boundary-layer mixing. Relatively benign winds at the moment will increase through the day as stronger mid-level flow at around 20-25 mph mixes down to the surface within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain. Persistent elevated conditions appear likely, and brief/localized critical conditions are possible. The forecast regarding central NM and portions of southern NV remain on track. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 05/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022/ ...Synopsis... The central/southern Plains mid-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward today. Across the West Coast, broadly cyclonic flow will exist with a strong upper-level jet across the northern Sierra. At the surface, fire weather concerns will be driven by weak surface trough development in the Great Basin and in eastern New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico... Mid-level winds will be decreasing during the day. However, they will be sufficient to induce a weak lee trough in the eastern plains. Winds of 15-20 mph with perhaps some higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. Dry air will once again be present with afternoon RH falling to 10-15%. ...Southern Nevada... Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F will support afternoon RH of 10-20% across much of Nevada. A weak surface trough in the Great Basin will promote 15-20 mph winds. Elevated fire weather concerns will exist where fuels have sufficiently dried. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 181

3 years 4 months ago
WW 181 TORNADO AR LA TX 051510Z - 052300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Northeast into central Texas * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1010 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning through the afternoon and move east across the watch area. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible, in addition to large hail with any robust supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of El Dorado AR to 10 miles south southwest of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith/Hart Read more

SPC MD 656

3 years 4 months ago
MD 0656 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0656 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022 Areas affected...Parts of central through northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051445Z - 051645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A substantive further increase in thunderstorms appears probable into early afternoon, including the evolution of a gradually organizing cluster of storms with damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent hazard later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...An increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing near the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. This appears focused near a pre-cold frontal confluence zone (along a wind shift from southwesterly to west-southwesterly around the 850 mb level), aided by increasingly divergent upper flow downstream of large-scale mid/upper troughing pivoting east of the southern Rockies. Breaks in cloud cover preceding this activity will allow for insolation to contribute to weakening of mid-level inhibition. Mixed-layer CAPE already appears on the order of 2000 J/kg, and it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent may support a substantive further increase in convection and upscale growth through early afternoon. Deep-layer shear is strong and supportive of organizing convection, with 30-50 kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer. This may include a few supercells initially, with 40+ kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow supporting advection of initial activity toward the Ark-La-Tex, before strengthening rear inflow contributes an eastward/southeastward progression of consolidating outflow later this afternoon. As this occurs, damaging wind gusts will become the more prominent severe hazard after stronger initial storms pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30619811 31169770 31819680 33289483 32869361 31219527 30289690 30279797 30619811 Read more