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No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 15 13:54:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 15 13:54:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail will be the main threat with thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks region into the lower Mississippi Valley, this evening and tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a long, west/east-oriented trough will extend across southern Canada. Attached cyclones are located over southern BC and northern ON near Lake Superior. The BC low temporarily will retrograde a short distance offshore, as the ON low moves northeastward toward James Bay. This will result in a continued broad fetch of essentially zonal flow over most of the CONUS, with only very weak/embedded perturbations. One of those weak shortwave troughs is evident in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern UT/western CO region. With ambient height rises forecast, this perturbation should weaken over time as it moves eastward to the southern High Plains by 00Z, and to northern OK by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across northern IL, northwestern MO and northeastern KS, becoming quasistationary west-southwestward go a low over southwestern KS. This boundary is expected to move southward as a cold front across the Ozarks, much of OK and the TX Panhandle through the period, as the low redevelops southeastward by 12Z over the Red River region of south-central OK/extreme north-central TX. A marine/warm front over coastal LA/southeast TX and south-central TX bounds the northern part of a maritime/tropical air mass with upper 60s to mid 70s F surface dewpoints observed this morning over deep south TX to the upper TX Coast. This boundary is forecast to move northward and become diffuse today, amidst a broad low-level warm-advection regime. As moisture returns northward through central/eastern portions of TX/OK and the Arklatex region toward the Ozarks, a dryline will become better-defined across west-central/northwest TX into western/central OK, intersecting the cold front over north-central OK around 00Z. ...Eastern OK/Ozarks region to lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms should form late this afternoon near or north of the northern front, over the Ozarks region and/or northeastern OK, becoming more intense and numerous this evening as convection moves east-southeastward to southeastward across the outlook area. Large hail is the main concern, and some of the hail may become significant and especially damaging, at 2+ inches in diameter. Isolated damaging gusts also may occur. Tornado potential is non-zero, but marginal and very conditional, given the early stage of return flow (lack of more-robust moisture and of lower LCL). The dryline itself should stay capped along the great majority if not all) of its length in OK/TX. With height rises forecast (even ahead of the weak mid/upper perturbation), large-scale support other than warm advection will be modest at best, and the bulk of activity may hold until after dark as moisture content increases below LFC. A combination of theta-e advection and diurnal heating will destabilize the low levels throughout the day, beneath an inversion later at the foot of an EML evident in morning RAOBS to the west and southwest. The cap should weaken through late afternoon to around 00Z, fostering the development of a 1000-1500 J/kg peak MLCAPE corridor (locally/ briefly higher) from south-central to northeastern OK. Steepening low-level lapse rates and some vertical mixing will lead to high-LCL well-mixed boundary layers suitable for strong-severe gust potential in any cells that can develop before too much evening near-surface cooling/stabilization occurs to substantially inhibit such gusts from reaching the surface. However, the greater threat (especially with any relatively discrete activity) will be severe and locally significant/damaging hail. Wind profiles favor supercell potential to optimize updraft strength in favorable hail-growth layers, as flow veers with height and effective-shear magnitudes commonly attain the 50-65-kt range. Lingering dryness in the subcloud layer will support evaporative cooling in downdrafts and maintenance of much of the hail size from its peak in-cloud growth to the surface. Severe potential should peak during the evening, diminishing slowly overnight (and with eastward extent) as convective mode gets more messy/clustered and inflow-layer buoyancy slowly weakens (with a deepening near-surface stable layer). ..Edwards/Smith.. 04/15/2022 Read more

The Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science wrote to seven states in the Colorado River Basin on April 8 to request feedback on the proposal to keep 480,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell. She emphasized that operating the dam below 3,490 feet, the minimum power pool, has not been done. If power production ends at Glen Canyon Dam, customers such as cities, rural electric cooperatives and tribal utilities would have to turn to more expensive options for electricity. States' water managers have until April 22 to respond with feedback. Associated Press News (New York), April 12, 2022

The Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District is offering farmers compensation for leaving land fallow. The land-idling program would leave more water in the river as New Mexico works to reduce its water debt to Texas. Associated Press News (New York), April 14, 2022

The Colorado Springs Fire Department enacted a burn restriction order for the city that took effect on April 15. Drought, dry fuel moisture levels and an increase in the occurrence of grass fires in undeveloped areas of the city were reasons for the restrictions. Recreational fires are banned, as is operating small-engine equipment without a properly installed, maintained and functioning spark arrestor. Outdoor smoking is prohibited in all city-owned parks and open spaces. Colorado Springs Gazette (Colo.), April 14, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 14 13:57:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 14 13:57:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England... Steady height falls are expected as the region is increasingly influenced by the lead portion of an upstream upper trough over the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s F) will be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, and to the south of a wedge/backdoor front across southern parts of New England. Relatively robust heating (70s to low 80s F) will result in the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front by mid-afternoon, with convection spreading into the I-95 corridor by late afternoon or early evening. Relatively strong mid-level flow on the periphery of the large mid/upper-level low will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for some storm organization. Low-level flow is expected to remain rather weak, but relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind gusts potential with the strongest cells/clusters through around sunset. ...Georgia to Carolinas/southeast Virginia... Prevalent multi-layer clouds exist or are moving into the region today in advance of an eastward-moving cold front. More appreciable forcing for ascent will be directed north of the region, but weak height falls will tend to occur along with a strengthening of winds aloft, especially with northward extent. Although questions exist regarding the exact degree of destabilization due to early day cloud cover, at least modest diurnal destabilization is expected by mid/late afternoon ahead of the cold front and probable increasing thunderstorm development. This developing afternoon convection may remain somewhat disorganized due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some potential for damaging winds with the strongest storms. Marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out in areas where somewhat stronger buoyancy can materialize. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/14/2022 Read more

Stage 1 fire restrictions took effect in Fountain and unincorporated El Paso County on April 11. Open burning, the sale or use of fireworks, and smoking outdoors are all prohibited. There are additional restrictions in Fountain. The restrictions were introduced after a number of fires over the preceding weekend. Colorado Springs Gazette (Colo.), April 11, 2022

The Side Oats fire started on April 13, 2022 at approximately 2:15 pm in Lynn CountyThe Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with the local

Research Fire started on April 12, 2022 at approximately 2:00 pm.Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with the local

On April 7, 2022, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) declared the Overflow Prescribed Fire to be a wildfire when an unexpected fire whirl carried fire across the control lines. The fire is located southeast of Roswell, along the Pecos River corridor, in Chaves County.Prescribed fire ignitions began at 11:35 a.m., within pre-determined parameters, called a prescription. The fire whirl, a dust-devil-like phenomenon, changed the fire intensity along control lines and spread the fire across the boundary. A fire whirl is a vortex-induced by extreme heat in the fire environment and is often composed of flame, debris, and ash and can travel distances similar to tornadoes. Fuels in the area are dry grasses and salt cedar. Upon the breach of the control lines, the BLM declared the event an escaped prescribed fire, which converted to a wildfire, at 1:25 p.m. The following cooperating agencies have contributed resources to the containment of the Overflow Fire: Chaves County, Carlsbad and...

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 13 14:46:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 13 14:46:02 UTC 2022.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0814 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Arkansas Central and Southern Illinois Western and Middle Tennessee Southern and Eastern Missouri Western and Central Kentucky Mississippi Central and Southern Indiana Louisiana Western and Northern Alabama * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. ...Northeast States... Low-level moistening will occur today in the wake of a northward-shifting warm front, with isolated thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon expected to be aided by a northeastward-moving shortwave trough aside from orographic lift. Weak to locally moderate destabilization across central New York into central/eastern Pennsylvania may support a few severe storms as lapse rates diurnally steepen. A few instances of wind damage and hail would be the primary hazards. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. ...Northeast States... Low-level moistening will occur today in the wake of a northward-shifting warm front, with isolated thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon expected to be aided by a northeastward-moving shortwave trough aside from orographic lift. Weak to locally moderate destabilization across central New York into central/eastern Pennsylvania may support a few severe storms as lapse rates diurnally steepen. A few instances of wind damage and hail would be the primary hazards. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/13/2022 Read more

MD 0472 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO...WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...central and eastern MO...western IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131238Z - 131445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible through the mid morning. Storm coverage and the limited magnitude of the risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance in the short term (through 10am). DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of thunderstorms over central MO in the vicinity of a cold front pushing east-southeast across the lower MO Valley this morning. Surface temperatures ahead of this thunderstorm activity are in the mid to upper 60s with lower 60s dewpoints, yielding a marginally unstable airmass. There is some uncertainty regarding destabilization this morning over the mid MS Valley due in part to an extensive cloud shield and deleterious effects emanating from the puddle of convectively processed air over the lower MS Valley at least potentially affecting this region. Nonetheless, as an intense mid-level shortwave trough over the TX Panhandle approaches this region later today, an uptick in both storm coverage and intensity is expected. However, in the meantime, the overall limited buoyancy in place across the mid MS Valley through mid morning will likely limit both the magnitude and coverage to a potential severe threat. Marginally severe hail and wind damage would be the hazards with this activity. ..Smith/Guyer.. 04/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37899301 39549185 39849078 39639013 39199003 38479058 37579255 37899301 Read more