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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely, mainly during the afternoon into early evening across parts of central to east Texas through the Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but isolated tornadoes and large hail will also be possible. ...Central and east TX to the Mid-South... The remnants of extensive convective overturning overnight are ongoing across parts of MO/AR/OK. A lead MCV associated with a decaying MCS has reached southeast MO, outpacing most CAM guidance. Flow enhancement attendant to the MCV should largely remain on the cool side of the surface warm front and outpace richer boundary-layer moisture as it tracks into the Lower OH Valley. It appears plausible that trailing convective outflow oriented from northeast to southwest will effectively serve as the primary boundary for afternoon storm development in the Mid-South region of the MS Valley. Steepening low-level lapse rates to its east/south should promote a main threat of scattered damaging wind gusts, with low confidence tornado potential focused near the warm front/outflow intersection. Farther west-southwest, elevated convection over southeast OK spreading east-southeast combined with additional convective development blossoming along the composite surface cold front/outflow into central TX should foster widespread thunderstorms this afternoon. The most favorable low-level hodographs should tend to be focused near the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine Valley where embedded supercells would be capable of producing a few tornadoes. Given the progressiveness of the composite cold front/outflow along with the bulk of deep-layer winds largely paralleling this boundary (especially with southwest extent in TX), a linear convective mode with surging cold pools is expected to dominate. While large hail is possible given a plume of 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, damaging winds should be the most prolific hazard in terms of coverage. The severe threat should diminish after dusk as MCSs shift south/east away from stronger low-level flow attendant to the KS/Ozark Plateau upper low and stronger instability in south TX. ...Ozark Plateau vicinity... Large-scale ascent tied to the primary mid-level vorticity maximum embedded within the upper low over western KS will approach the KS/OK/MO/AR borders region this afternoon. Extensive convective overturning this morning and residual cloudiness will likely mitigate substantial boundary-layer heating. Nevertheless, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the low and adequate deep-layer shear should promote a threat for mainly isolated severe hail during the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Broyles.. 05/05/2022 Read more

The George Washington and Jefferson National Forests will conduct prescribed burns in multiple counties this spring. Prescribed burns improve wildlife habitat by restoring open woodlands and grasslands to the forest landscape. Safety is the Forest Service’s top priority, and Forest fire managers will conduct prescribed burns only under appropriate weather conditions. Experienced fire managers will closely monitor local weather conditions, such as wind and humidity, and adjust the schedule as needed to ensure the safety of both crewmembers and local residents. Prior to lighting the burn, crews construct and designate firebreaks to ensure the fire does not leave the burn area. The burn will mimic historic natural fire as much as possible. Some individual trees will burn, but the fire should travel mostly across the forest floor. For thousands of years, fire shaped our forests and wildlife and our lands need fire to be healthy. Low intensity prescribed burns create open areas where a...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... The ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and latest trends is morning guidance. The 12 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled a dry boundary layer over NM and surface observations show RH already falling into the upper teens to low 20s. Further drying is expected as broad subsidence overspreads the region to the south of an upper-level low over CO. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the fire weather threat across the western TX Panhandle, and will be dependent on where the dryline sharpens this afternoon. Additionally, morning clouds and light rainfall across southeast NM and southwest TX introduce some uncertainty regrading the RH forecast for this afternoon. However, there are several factors that justify maintaining the ongoing risk areas, including regional ERCs above the 90th percentile, limited observed recent rainfall at the surface, observed RH falls on the western periphery of the cloud deck, and a strong signal in ensemble guidance for elevated to critical conditions by late afternoon. ..Moore.. 05/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough across the Four Corners and central Rockies will move eastward into the central/southern Plains today. A surface cyclone will deepen in eastern New Mexico. Fire weather concerns will be focused across New Mexico. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Strong surface winds are expected to develop behind a composite front/dryline in West Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph are probable across much southern, central, and northeastern New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common, but locally 5-10% is possible. Critical conditions may extend into parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains at least briefly. With modest uncertainty in the dryline position and possible South Plains precipitation this morning, Elevated highlights will be maintained in these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed May 4 14:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 4 14:46:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TX...AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. Strong tornado and very large hail potential are most probable across the southeast Texas Panhandle into portions of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Great Plains... A wide variety of potential forecast outcomes are evident today with unusually large spread among guidance at this stage of the outlook cycle. As such, the middle categorical risk is probably the most statistically appropriate forecast, even though potential does exist for intense supercells capable of producing very large hail and strong tornadoes. Initially, guidance diverges with the degree of late morning elevated convective coverage within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. The western and southern extent of this activity differs substantially which provides low confidence in how far the surface warm front will advance. The leading edge of rich western Gulf moisture characterized by mid 60s surface dew points has spread across the Permian Basin and the Edwards Plateau into eastern TX. Guidance that is subdued with elevated convection such as the 09Z RAP/HRRR suggests this moisture plume and warm front will reach the southeast TX Panhandle and at least the southern half of OK. This profoundly impacts the potential intensity of dryline supercells, with several HRRR runs adamant of long-lived, high-end 2-5 km updraft helicity near the dryline/surface warm front intersection. Under a more suppressive scenario such as the 06Z NAM or 00Z ARW-NSSL, MLCAPE into the TX Panhandle would be much more subdued in amplitude and spatial extent leading to initial discrete supercells tending to quickly evolve across a cooler boundary layer over the eastern panhandle and western OK. Differences are also pronounced with the degree of warm sector convective development well ahead of the dryline from the Big Country to north-central TX during the afternoon. This too will have impacts spatially on how far north MCS development occurs this evening. The primary strengthening of broad low-level southerlies is anticipated in the 03-06Z time frame as the primary vorticity lobe within the slow-moving southern Rockies shortwave trough ejects onto the south-central High Plains. By this time, convective mode will probably be dominated by eastward-moving MCSs with the primary severe threat confined to along and south of the spatially unclear warm front. ...Southeast VA and the Carolinas... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes will move east into southern New England this evening. To the south of this wave, a cold front will push southeast across the Lower Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Convergence along the cold front and coastal sea breezes should support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be modest, it should be adequate for multicells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds. Convection should largely shift offshore and/or weaken after dusk. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/04/2022 Read more

Drought and fire have been hard on Nebraska farms. Some ground cover, hay bales and pastureland burned in fires; some livestock have been lost while others have been scattered in the fires. Top soil is eroding, and the lack of snow during the past winter left the land exposed. Many miles of fencing were consumed in the fires, and a single mile of four-wire fencing costs $13,000 to $19,000 to replace, if supplies can be found. Some farmers turned to electric fences temporarily, but given the dry ground, the fences cannot carry a current because they can’t get a good “ground,” and cattle walk through them. Omaha World-Herald (Neb.), May 2, 2022

The beef cow slaughter through mid-April is up 16.9% year over year and is a surprisingly high rate of cow slaughter for spring. Drought impacts from 2021, combined with very strong cull cow prices and limited forage prospects are likely reflected in the rate. Significant beef cow herd liquidation may occur in 2022 unless drought improves quickly and substantially. Beef Magazine (St. Charles, Ill.), April 30, 2022

After a dry fall and winter in the Great Plains, and very arid, windy spring, the wheat has had about as much as it can take. In southwestern Kansas, a wheat grower abandoned 800 acres at planting time due to no soil moisture. Hopefully recent moisture can improve the growth and yield of his remaining wheat, otherwise it will only be 12 inches tall. Dribs and drabs of precipitation have kept the wheat alive in northwest Kanas, but yield potential is already lost and increasing. Large areas of the major wheat growing regions may be on track to see below average yields as dry weather persists from the central to the southern Plains. The high winds have stolen away moisture and resulted in blowing dust and buried wheat crops. In eastern Nebraska, the endless wind has left the dryland wheat “graying out,” while even the irrigated wheat stands are thin and uneven. Evapotranspiration has topped 10 inches this year, twice the norm. Many wheat fields in western Oklahoma were abandoned due to drought. DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), May 3, 2022

The Idaho Department of Water Resources issued a drought declaration for 34 counties south of the Salmon River on April 28. The declarations will let water users file “extraordinary” water right-related applications allowing them more flexibility to move water. Boise State Public Radio (Idaho), May 3, 2022

 This prescribed burn was successfully completed on

No watches are valid as of Tue May 3 13:51:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 3 13:51:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY AND A SMALL PART OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon through about dusk. Isolated very large hail will be possible along a small portion of the Rio Grande Valley this evening. ...OH Valley... Scattered convection is ongoing across parts of the OH Valley and Midwest regions within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This early-day activity will likely persist into this afternoon, lowering confidence in the degree of boundary-layer heating with northern extent. Nevertheless, a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points emanating northeast from the Lower OH Valley should eventually yield a pronounced gradient in MLCAPE from northeast to southwest this afternoon. Primary severe potential should develop during the afternoon as scattered convection forms ahead of the cold front. Amid predominately unidirectional southwesterly flow, low-level hodographs should be modestly enlarged. However, winds above 700 mb will largely be similar to or weakening in speed with height. As such, a cluster convective mode with transient supercell structures will probably dominate. Damaging winds should be the primary threat, but a couple tornadoes along with isolated severe hail will also be possible. ...Rio Grande Valley in southwest TX... Strong heating across northern Coahuila should contribute to convection developing over the higher terrain west of Del Rio where return flow remains moist. A couple supercells (most likely a left-mover but possibly right) could approach/cross the international border with an attendant threat for significant large hail given large buoyancy and rather favorable deep-layer shear. Much of the convection should remain west of the U.S. border. ...Elsewhere in TX... Near a decaying MCS over the Sabine Valley, residual convective outflow intersecting with a slowing cold front may support an isolated severe storm or two this afternoon. Despite weak low-level shear, sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for a supercell capable of isolated large hail and locally strong gusts. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z HRRR are two models most insistent on elevated convection developing overnight in the TX South Plains vicinity as robust warm theta-e advection occurs well downstream of a shortwave trough gradually shifting east from the Great Basin to the central/southern Rockies. Other guidance suggest profiles will remain capped in this region with highly elevated convection possible farther to the northeast near the end of the period. While the threat appears conditional, very steep mid-level lapse rates and ample cloud-bearing shear would support a threat for severe hail. ...VA/NC... Isolated severe storms will be possible along and west of a stalled front draped across this region. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west/south front and this should allow surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures by mid to late afternoon. A few thunderstorms should develop along the higher terrain and near the frontal zone. 25-30 kts of 500-mb westerly flow could allow a few updrafts to briefly organize. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/03/2022 Read more

The Skiles 429 Fire is located northeast of Clayton along the Oklahoma border in Union County. The fire is burning in steep canyons and very rough terrain. The fire started April 29, 2022 at approximately 3:15 p.m. The cause is under investigation.Individuals sensitive to wildfire smoke should take precautions and use the New Mexico Department of Health 5-3-1 Visibility Method to determine if it’s safe to be outside. Learn more

The Nogal Canyon Fire that started on April 12, 2022, burned 6 primary residences and 8 outbuildings. The fire was located about 12 miles west of Capitan, NM. Evacuations have now been lifted for this fire. The fire has burned 412 acres of grass, brush and trees. Firefighters continue to identify and put out hot spots on the

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent rainfall reports, morning surface observations, and trends in the latest hi-res guidance. Fire weather concerns remain most likely across central to southern NM this afternoon where RH values are already near or below 15% and westerly winds are increase to 15-20 mph. To the east across the TX Panhandle, MRMS rainfall estimates show several swaths of 0.10+ inches of rainfall from last night's thunderstorms. While critical conditions are possible across much of the TX Panhandle (including along and north of the I-40 corridor and possibly into northwest OK), the Elevated risk area is limited to the local rainfall minimums where fuels are likely still receptive. A cold front is noted across eastern CO/western KS in morning surface observations, and will likely reach the I-40 corridor with gusty northerly winds by around 00 UTC. ..Moore.. 05/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains today. Farther west, another shortwave trough will move into the Great Basin. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen in the Texas Panhandle before moving northeastward through the day. A cold front will eventually move southward into the High Plains region. ...New Mexico... Despite weaker mid-level winds, critical fire weather is possible during the afternoon due to the strong surface pressure gradient. Westerly winds will reach 20+ mph in some parts of central and southern New Mexico. The airmass will remain quite dry and RH will fall to 10-15%. ...Texas Panhandle into the Permian Basin... Critical meteorological conditions are possible in the Panhandle and South Plains. However, scattered thunderstorms on Sunday evening have produced rainfall across the region, particularly in the Panhandle. Highlights have been adjusted to account for rain-impacted fuels. Localized fire weather concerns are still possible in those areas, however. ...Southern Nevada... With the approaching trough, southerly/southwesterly winds will increase ahead of a Pacific boundary. Fuels that have become critically dry will promote large fire potential. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common, but isolated higher speeds are possible. RH should generally range from 15-20% during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 2 14:38:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 2 14:38:02 UTC 2022.