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Weber Basin Water Conservancy District has just 15% of its average water for the year. The Bureau of Reclamation, the Department of the Interior, Metropolitan Water District of Salt Lake and Sandy, Provo River Water Users, Jordan Valley Water and the Central Utah Water Conservancy District are working together to make more water available. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), May 6, 2022

Cal Water is entering stage two of its Water Shortage Contingency Plan within the Chico district. A request has been submitted to the California Public Utilities Commission to allow it to enter the second phase. Once approved, the new restrictions will go into effect. Chico Enterprise-Record (Calif.), April 28, 2022

No watches are valid as of Sat May 14 13:53:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 14 13:53:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. Some threat may redevelop late tonight across parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... The persistent midlevel low over the Southeast is in the process of evolving into more of an open wave, and a primary embedded shortwave trough will eject north-northeastward from NC to southern New England by early Sunday. This pattern evolution will be in response to gradual upstream height falls across the upper Midwest and upper MS Valley, downstream from modest height rises over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Within the primary jet, an embedded shortwave trough over MN/WI will eject northeastward toward ON, and an upstream shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will amplify some while digging southeastward over the middle MO Valley. The surface synoptic boundaries will remain rather diffuse today into early tonight, prior to some sharpening of a front near the KS/NE border by the end of the period. ...West TX to western KS this afternoon/evening... A somewhat diffuse dryline is expected this afternoon from western KS southward into west TX, where surface heating and deep mixing could allow isolated thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon. A high-based supercell or two with isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts will be possible, given sufficiently long hodographs with effective bulk shear greater than 40 kt. ...Lower MS Valley to the Great Lakes this afternoon/evening... Deep-layer flow/shear will be very weak from the lower OH River into MI, where surface heating will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (weaker north) and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Weak low-level convergence and minimal convective inhibition should support widely-scattered to scattered thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon, with the potential for isolated wind damage with downbursts. Somewhat richer low-level moisture and larger CAPE are expected farther south into the lower MS Valley region, though there is some uncertainty regarding the lingering influence of ongoing morning convection across the Ark-La-Miss. Where pockets of stronger surface heating occur, especially in conjunction with lingering outflow boundaries, a few multicell clusters with strong/isolated damaging downburst winds will be possible. ...Southeast NE/northeast KS 06-12z Sunday... The aforementioned shortwave trough and low-level frontogenesis, interacting with steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, will likely result in the formation of elevated thunderstorm clusters early Sunday morning. This convection will pose mainly an isolated large hail threat during this forecast period, before evolving into more of a damaging wind threat during the day Sunday (D2). ..Thompson.. 05/14/2022 Read more

Los Angeles Department of Water and Power customers must limit lawn watering to two days per week. Since the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California declared a water shortage emergency in April, water use must be curbed because the district has less water. The aim is to achieve at least a 35% reduction in water consumption, hopefully trimming usage to about 80 gallons per person per day. KTLA-TV WB 5 Los Angeles (Calif.), May 10, 2022

One month into Stage 2 water restrictions in San Antonio and more people are complaining about seeing neighbors wasting water. Water rule violators can be fined $120 for a first violation. Residents are urged to report the violations anonymously via saws.org. People may not want to confront a neighbor about perceived water waste unless they are on good terms with the neighbor as the interaction may end badly. Texas Public Radio (San Antonio, Texas), May 12, 2022

Most of the South Plains were extremely dry. Many irrigated cotton farmers were cutting back on the number of planted acres with a majority reporting they planned to irrigate 60%-70% of the acres they irrigated last year. Many producers were selling off cattle due to the lack of grazing and higher cattle prices. Most cattle were being supplementally fed, with a few herds grazing irrigated oats or leftover winter wheat. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 10, 2022 Extreme dry conditions continued across the South Plains. Farmers were holding off on major planting decisions until their fields received good moisture. Many cattle producers were making tough decisions on thinning down their herds due to a lack of grazing. Local sale barns were receiving larger volumes of cattle than normal each week. Cattle continued to receive supplemental feed. Some counties were battling wildfires popping up here and there, with continued high heat and heavy winds. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022

Some Rolling Plains cotton farmers were concerned about damaging farm equipment while getting seed into the dry ground. Some wheat hay was baled with about half a bale per acre reported. Some wheat was harvested, but the majority of harvestable wheat was lower quality, with the exception of some wheat in the bottom fields. Overall wheat yields were expected to be low. Sorghum planting in some areas was about a month later than normal. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 10, 2022 Some counties across the district reported 0.5-3 inches of rainfall, other counties remained extremely dry and reported high winds. Around 2,300 acres were burned in several fires. Spring work continued, and cattle producers were considering deep culls as supplemental feeding was becoming counterproductive and overgrazing was becoming a concern. Producers were reporting poor to fair body conditions in cattle. Dry, windy conditions were preventing fieldwork. Dryland wheat was 100% headed as dry weather caused early maturation. Producers were reporting thin wheat stands and small grain heads. Some wheat was being baled for hay. About half of sorghum acres were planted, but some producers were still waiting for rainfall to plant. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Conditions were hot and windy in the Rolling Plains with no moisture. Winter wheat was showing signs of growth, and some fields were in the boot stage or heading, but other fields were being plowed under. Row crop preparations were delayed by dry conditions. Cattle were grazing some late wheat growth. Forage inventories were declining, but supplemental feeding continued, and rangelands were showing very little growth. Ranchers were culling herds due to lack of forage and rising supplemental feed costs. Fire concerns remained due to dry conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Some parts of the Rolling Plains received 0.7 to 3 inches of rain. Several areas reported continued drought conditions, and drier areas remained on fire watch. Some counties were lifting burn bans. Wheat conditions improved, but fields need more rain. Some wheat fields were total losses. Rainfall runoff replenished stock tanks. High winds were drying out soils. Cattle were being supplemented with hay and feed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Scattered rain in the Rolling Plains delivered rainfall amounts up to 0.6 of an inch. Winter wheat conditions were still very poor. Some green-up in pastures helped wildlife and livestock on pasture. Cotton farmers needed to list and plow, but dry conditions were delaying fieldwork. Corn and sorghum planting was behind due to lack of moisture. Some wheat fields perked up a little following rain. Stock ponds needed a runoff rainfall event to refill. Cattle were being fed hay and supplemental feed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 Rolling Plains pastures remained in poor condition. Cattle were provided supplemental feed, and few native grasses were available for grazing. Ponds were drying up. Several wildfires were reported. Up to an inch of rain fell in parts of the district, which should help rangeland and wheat. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 Conditions were dry and windy in the Rolling Plains. Pastures and winter wheat fields looked bad. Producers were not top-dressing with fertilizer due to the cost and bad crop conditions. Hay supplies and fire danger were major concerns. Most wheat fields were in poor conditions, but some were able to be grazed, and deer were still a problem for the few that were producing. Wind erosion was becoming a problem. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Conditions were very dry in the Rolling Plains. A fire burned 566 acres. Wheat looked poor and needed some moisture. Supplemental feeding continued for cattle due to very little wheat for grazing. More rain will be needed for cotton planting. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Conditions were very dry in the Rolling Plains. A fire last week consumed 818 acres of grazing land. Most wheat was being grazed out. The soil profile received some moisture from an ice storm, which allowed some wheat to green up, but there were still several dead patches in fields. Most wheat was in poor to very poor condition. Heavy supplemental feeding continued for cattle on rangelands. Forage inventories continued to decline. Row crop tillage delays continued due to lack of moisture for proper tillage. Some producers spread fertilizer with chances of rain in the forecast, but moisture did not materialize. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Many Rolling Plains wheat fields have not emerged yet, but moisture from a recent cold front ought to help the wheat a little. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Some parts of the Rolling Plains received one-half to one inch of rain, to which the wheat responded with slightly better color, but the crop remained in mostly very poor condition. Pasture conditions did not improve, and the supplemental feeding of livestock continued. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022

Unseasonably hot weather with strong winds in the Coastal Bend continued to deplete topsoil moisture. All field crops needed moisture. A considerable amount of cotton failed, but it was too early to know the full extent. Rangeland and pasture conditions worsened, and livestock conditions declined. Producers began to decrease their herds and pulled calves ahead of schedule. Hay supplies were getting low, and supplemental feeding was still necessary. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 10, 2022 Moderate to severe drought and windy conditions continued in the Coastal Bend. Corn and grain sorghum were stressed but looked fair. Most soybean acres were planted, except fields with insufficient moisture. If some areas do not receive rain in the next seven to 10 days, crop failures were expected. Rangeland and pasture conditions were declining. Hay fields were not growing due to lack of moisture. Some livestock producers were culling and reducing stocking rates. Livestock were being fed supplements and hay. Higher cattle sale volumes could begin if rain does not materialize soon. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Dry, windy conditions continued in the Coastal Bend, and soil moisture levels continued to decline. Corn was showing early signs of drought stress. Some sorghum plantings were emerging inconsistently, and thin stands were a concern. Cotton was coming up, but a lot of acres were planted dry. Pastures and rangelands continued to decline. Livestock were running short on available grazing. Most cattle producers were feeding hay and protein. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Soil moisture conditions continued to be dry due to a lack of rain and high winds. Cotton was still being planted, and some fields had emerged where planted in moisture. Most field crops were beginning to show stress, especially in lighter soils. Pasture conditions were dry, and the available forage was poor quality. Livestock were still being fed hay and protein supplements as needed. Cattle were in fair to good condition, but were losing condition daily from lack of forage, especially the spring calves. Many producers were pulling fall calves earlier than normal due to declining conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 The Coastal Bend was experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions. Some farmers were still delaying plantings, waiting on rainfall to build soil moisture. Most corn and sorghum had emerged and were doing well, but fields needed moisture. Most rangeland and pastures were in poor condition, but there were a few areas with good enough grazing to maintain livestock body conditions. Cattle producers were culling poor performers and open cows, and the livestock market was still good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 High winds in the Coastal Bend coupled with low humidity continued to create a fire threat. Corn and most grain sorghum emerged but needed rain. Pastures were starting to green up in areas that received rain, but there was still not much growth. Livestock body conditions were declining, especially for cows with calves. Producers continued to supplement herds with protein and hay. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 Most areas had not received measurable rain in 45 days, but northern parts of the reporting area received a small amount of rain this past week. Crop planting was still in high gear despite dry conditions. Corn and sorghum were also being planted with some fields already emerged, but they needed moisture. Livestock pasture forages were getting short, and hay and protein feeding continued. Cattle remained in good condition with sale prices at very high levels. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 No significant rains were reported, and soil moisture levels were unseasonably low. Pastures and fields needed rain. Cold temperatures and dry conditions continued to delay the emergence of warm season grasses. Livestock producers were still feeding hay and protein as feed prices continued to rise. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Soil moisture was short and beginning to be a concern in the Coastal Bend. Sorghum producers were having to plant deeper than normal to find moisture. Winter pastures needed significant rainfall to finish grazing and grain crops. Most hay producers were waiting to fertilize hay fields until there was increased soil moisture. Livestock were showing signs of declining body condition and were still being fed hay and protein. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Rangeland and pasture conditions in the Coastal Bend continued to deteriorate with livestock showing signs of reduced nutrition. Hay feeding and protein supplements continued. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Conditions were very dry and windy in the Coastal Bend. Wheat, oats and ryegrass were still alive, but rain will be needed soon. The feeding of hay and protein supplements continued. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Coastal Bend rangeland and pasture conditions continued to be poor. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued with hay and protein. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 The Coastal Bend is dry, but rain is in the forecast. Dry conditions have hampered pasture growth, and producers were feeding hay and protein. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022

Cooks Peak Fire Update 5/12/2022   Fire Update:  A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 8am-9pm.  Slightly cooler temperatures and strong afternoon winds are expected with gusts up to 40 mph.  Humidity will be in the single digits.  Friday, winds will be calmer, but weather conditions will remain dry and warm.  Smoke from the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire is being pushed by strong winds toward the Cooks Peak Fire. Interior pockets of fuel will continue to burn down and smoke may be visible but the fire is not actively spreading.  Crews will patrol and mop up along existing firelines and closely watch and hold all lines as strong winds can carry hot embers across.  In addition, crews will continue suppression repair work.    Resource specialists continue to assess completed work and identify additional rehabilitation needed.  A group of incident resources will continue to support local resources with any new starts that may occur in the vicinity of the fire. There are 83...

No watches are valid as of Fri May 13 14:02:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 13 14:02:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Friday from the Upper Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains. The stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and hail. ...Upper MS Valley to the southern Plains through early tonight... Only small changes to the large-scale pattern are expected through early Saturday, as a weakening midlevel low will persist over the Southeast, and the primary belt of westerlies aloft will remain from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. In the wake of an embedded shortwave trough and occluding cyclone moving north-northeastward to southern MB and western ON, a trailing cold front will make slow southeastward progress from WI to MO and OK. Despite some low-level drying the past few days as a result of retrogression of the Southeast midlevel low, boundary-layer dewpoints remain mostly in the mid 60s ahead of the slow-moving cold front and residual outflow boundaries. The corridor of richer pre-frontal moisture will be narrowest to the north toward WI, and somewhat broader to the south toward MO and OK. Overnight/morning convection raises some uncertainty in the forecast for this afternoon/evening. It appears some of the convection may persist long enough from northeast OK to northwest MO to influence later storm development through the stabilizing effects of lingering clouds into the afternoon. Any persistent differential heating zones and/or convective outflows could also serve to focus afternoon storm development. With MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg expected and modest vertical shear, a mix of multicell clusters and some supercells will be possible later this afternoon into early tonight from OK into MO. Occasional damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main threats. The window of opportunity for severe storms toward WI will be smaller and more marginal, given relatively weak vertical shear and weaker buoyancy in a narrower corridor compared to the MO-OK area. Farther southwest in TX, aside from isolated morning storms, deep mixing with strong surface heating should support at least isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along and immediately east of a remnant dryline/front. Inverted-V profiles will support high-based storms with the threat of strong downburst winds. Mid-upper westerly flow and straight hodographs could be sufficient for some splitting supercells with isolated large hail. ...Lower MS Valley this afternoon/evening... Along a diffuse front near the MS River and beneath modest (20-25 kt) northerly flow aloft, daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 68-70 F range will contribute to MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the diffuse front by mid afternoon, and multicell clusters will subsequently spread southward across the Ark-La-Miss through this evening. Vertical shear will be relatively weak, but midlevel lapse rates/buoyancy will be sufficiently large to support marginally severe hail. Steep low-level lapse rates, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and precipitation loading suggest that strong outflow gusts will be the main concern. ..Thompson.. 05/13/2022 Read more

The drought-affected areas of Oregon provide prime conditions for grasshoppers, encouraging a massive outbreak in 2021. Grasshoppers and other insects are devouring the already short forage supplies. Ranchers worry about grasshopper populations this summer. Oregon Public Broadcasting (Portland, Ore.), May 6, 2022

Wheat in Harper County has received about one-third of normal precipitation in the last 8 months. One grower estimated that his crop had lost 30% to 40% of its yield potential. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), May 10, 2022

Precipitation in Goshen County replenished soils though moisture was insufficient and too late for some farmers. High winds once again dried fields. In Laramie County, rains revitalized struggling crops. Soil moisture levels held for a while until high winds returned and dried fields and ranges. In Niobrara County, crop and rangeland conditions improved from the snow and rain. Stock water supplies also benefitted from the moisture and a report indicated a high number of livestock were killed due to the snowstorm that occurred April 23, 2022. In Weston County, forage was greening but short due to poor growing conditions. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), May 9, 2022

The Simi Valley City Council approved a resolution on May 9 allowing outdoor watering just one day per week beginning June 1. The aim is to conserve as much water as possible sine the boards of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California and the Calleguas Municipal Water District in late April declared a water shortage emergency which also limits outdoor watering to once a week. Ventura County Star (Camarillo, Calif.), May 11, 2022