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WW 273 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 251435Z - 252200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 935 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms and isolated cells ahead of the line will track northeastward across the watch area today. Locally damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two are the main threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Greenwood MS to 30 miles west southwest of Slidell LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Hart Read more

MD 0912 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0912 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0923 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Areas affected...eastern/southeastern Louisiana into southern/central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251423Z - 251600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts and a tornado or two will be possible the remainder of the morning into the afternoon across parts of far eastern/southeastern Louisiana into southern/central Mississippi. DISCUSSION...A line of storms along a composite outflow and ahead of a surface cold front will continue to shift east/northeast through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. Pockets of heating ahead of the line and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s F is aiding in moderate destabilization this morning, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg. However, effective shear magnitudes are expected to remain modest through the day at around 30 kt. Furthermore, both low and midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak. This will limit storm intensity overall, but the parameter space will adequately support at least brief strong embedded cells or bows along the line. The main hazard with this activity will be strong gusts in the 40-50 kt range. Regional VWP data also shows enlarged, curved low-level hodograph, which could support rotation within the line or in cellular activity ahead of the line. While low-level lapse rates are poor, 0-3 km MLCAPE greater than 100 J/kg and some enhanced low-level vorticity could support a brief spin-up in more intense convection. Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may be needed. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30909181 31709177 32519159 32909123 33139038 33108988 32998940 32668896 32308870 31878854 30578846 29608870 29078906 28978977 28959038 29049109 29319143 29729171 30639171 30909181 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley, Southeast, Midwest, and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well-defined synoptic trough now over the Plains States southward to northeastern MX, with a 500-mb low re-forming across western OK at this time. The low should move erratically northeastward to near the southern part of the KS/MO line by 12Z tomorrow, with trough southward across the Arklatex and western Gulf. Small, convectively induced/augmented vorticity maxima will eject northeastward to northward ahead of the trough, across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over northeastern KS, with a cold front arching across the OK/MO border area, northeast TX, and east-central TX, to near LRD. The cold front was preceded by a convective/outflow boundary from northeastern MX and near BRO northeastward across western LA. A warm front was drawn over northern MO, north-central IL, and central portions of IN/OH, though several areas of convection have altered the sector south of the synoptic warm front. The cold front should move eastward slowly across much of AR and LA through the period, preceded at least into this evening by the convective boundary. Meanwhile, the low should split, with one part moving northeastward along the warm front to WI tonight, and the other stacking more vertically with the mid/upper cyclone center. ...Gulf Coast States, Delta region, Mid-South, TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible in multiple episodes through the period, the main one likely being associated with a band of convection now extending from western LA across the northwestern Gulf. Sporadic damaging winds and a few line-embedded tornadoes are possible. This activity, and the associated corridor of outflow- aided convective lift, are expected to shift eastward into a low-level air mass destabilized by a combination of: 1. Theta-e advection from the south, with 70s F surface dew points already common south of I-20 between western AL and western LA; 2. Patchy areas of diurnal surface heating, in relative breaks of cloud cover between the convective band and a separate area of thunderstorms initially over AL and the western FL Panhandle. These factors should offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough to support MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg over southern LA/MS, decreasing to around 500-1000 J/kg northward over parts of the Mid-South region. Mid/upper-level winds and deep speed shear will increase with time as the synoptic trough approaches, but with little change in direction in the vertical profile. As such, forecast soundings show peak effective-shear magnitudes only reaching the 30-40-kt range, supporting organized multicells, QLCS mode, short-lived supercell structures, and a few bow/LEWP formations with associated mesocirculations. Additional strong/isolated severe thunderstorms may persist this morning across the east-central Gulf Coast region from the FL Panhandle into AL, as well as develop behind the remnants of original convective line tonight across parts of LA/MS/southern AL. The severe potential with the overnight activity (wind, perhaps tornado) is more uncertain, and dependent on the extent of airmass recovery behind the daytime complex. However, the bulk of any such nocturnal threat should be contained within the upgraded outlook area as drawn. ...Eastern Ozarks, mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon in an arc along/ahead of the front, and northeast through east of the surface low, over parts of northeastern AR and eastern MO. This activity should shift into IL before weakening appreciably. Widely scattered thunderstorms also should develop today in a zone of increasing low-level moisture and slowly eroding MLCINH in the partially modified warm sector across parts of IL/IN/OH/KY ahead of the near-frontal arc. At least a marginal wind/tornado threat may develop, along with isolated hail. The convective arc will be located in a zone of relatively maximized deep-layer lift and low-level convergence ahead of the progressive mid/upper cyclone, with relatively backed near-surface flow aiding boundary-layer shear. However, weak middle-level lapse rates and muted surface heating due to cloud cover (limiting low-level lapse rates) will temper buoyancy in this regime, which will be located well north of the richest Gulf moisture. MLCAPE generally in the 300-800 J/kg range is expected with little to no MLCINH left by midafternoon, enabling development and maintenance of this activity, which may link up with the northern extent of the LA/MS convective band discussed above. If mesoscale trends and subsequent model guidance indicate more destabilization (surface or aloft), or stronger sustained lift, greater severe probabilities may need to be extended north into this region. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 05/25/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
surface trough located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Interests in
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development during the next day or so, but upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for further development by late
this week while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Green up in Montana to Colorado and Nebraska was muted due to dry conditions with little forage growth seen in many areas. Rain is needed to keep these rangelands green. Conditions this May are the worst in at least 35 years. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, this is the highest Drought Severity and Coverage Index value at 183 out of 500, for the highest DSCI value in mid-May dating back to 2000. The USDA ranked pasture and range conditions starting in May as having the highest percentage of poor to very poor conditions since 1995. As of May 1, hay stocks were: • 15.1 percent below the 2012-2021 average for the country • Down 21.7 percent from the ten-year average in the 17 western states • For the ten western states, down more than 30 percent from the ten-year average Hay prices are forecast to hit record levels in 2022, and alfalfa prices will also be high. With pasture and rangeland in poor condition, and hay being expensive, rates of beef cow slaughter were exceptionally high at 4.2% of the Jan. 1, 2022 beef cow herd total, which was above the average culling percentage of the first four months of the year of 3.0% from 1986 through 2021. Drovers Cattle Network (Lenexa, Kan.), May 23, 2022

Several years of drought in Utah have reduced big game populations across most of the state. The Division of Wildlife Resources evaluated the health of deer populations and recommended issuing a total of 73,075 general-season deer hunting permits, 950 permits fewer than the previous year. Cache Valley Daily (Logan, Utah), May 25, 2022 Drought in Utah reduced the deer population to about 305,700, based on December assessments, which is about 9,150 less than the previous year and almost 100,000 below the division’s deer population goal. Consequently, the division would like to reduce the number of permits by 950 general season buck permits, 300 antlerless deer permits, and 50 limited-entry deer permits. This is the fourth consecutive year that the division hopes to decrease the number of general season buck permits. The division plan would add about 2,200 general permits in its northern Utah region and 150 permits in southeastern Utah, where populations are faring better. It would reduce 2,750 permits in its southern region, 450 permits in central Utah, and 100 permits in northeastern Utah, where populations are faring worse. Elk populations haven't been as affected by the drought as deer. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), March 24, 2022

California's State Water Resources Control Board voted to enact a statewide ban on watering decorative turf at commercial, industrial and institutional properties. The board also voted to require local water agencies to activate Level 2 of their local contingency plans to in preparation for a shortage of up to 20%. Los Angeles Times, May 24, 2022

California's State Water Resources Control Board voted to enact a statewide ban on watering decorative turf at commercial, industrial and institutional properties. The board also voted to require local water agencies to activate Level 2 of their local contingency plans to in preparation for a shortage of up to 20%. Los Angeles Times, May 24, 2022

Jackson Lake Dam in northwest Wyoming and Palisades Reservoir in eastern Idaho are expected to be nearly empty by the end of summer 2022 at 2% to 10% of capacity as the water is sent down the Snake River for irrigation. Heat and drought in 2021 drained water stores, and low snowpack during the 2021-22 winter did not improve conditions much. The Colter Bay Marina boat ramp at Jackson Lake is out of the water and will remain so all summer, while the Signal Mountain Lodge’s boat ramp and Leeks Marina should remain useable until late August or early September, when water levels drop lower, and they become unusable. At Palisades Reservoir, the Blowout ramp may be out of the water in mid-July, while the Calamity ramp may be useable until early September. Jackson Hole News & Guide (Wyo.), May 21, 2022

Jackson Lake Dam in northwest Wyoming and Palisades Reservoir in eastern Idaho are expected to be nearly empty by the end of summer 2022 at 2% to 10% of capacity as the water is sent down the Snake River for irrigation. Heat and drought in 2021 drained water stores, and low snowpack during the 2021-22 winter did not improve conditions much. The Colter Bay Marina boat ramp at Jackson Lake is out of the water and will remain so all summer, while the Signal Mountain Lodge’s boat ramp and Leeks Marina should remain useable until late August or early September, when water levels drop lower, and they become unusable. At Palisades Reservoir, the Blowout ramp may be out of the water in mid-July, while the Calamity ramp may be useable until early September. Jackson Hole News & Guide (Wyo.), May 21, 2022

Water restrictions began in Danvers on May 1 and were increased to Level 3 three weeks later as drought concerns rose. Residents may only use sprinklers and irrigation systems on certain days between 7 p.m. until 8 a.m. the following day. Danvers, MA Patch, May 23, 2022

Water restrictions began in Danvers on May 1 and were increased to Level 3 three weeks later as drought concerns rose. Residents may only use sprinklers and irrigation systems on certain days between 7 p.m. until 8 a.m. the following day. Danvers, MA Patch, May 23, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue May 24 14:51:02 UTC 2022.

MD 0897 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPPER TEXAS COAST VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0897 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241448Z - 241615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts may occur across portions of the Upper Texas Coast the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A band of strong storms is lifting northward near the Upper Texas Coast this morning at around 40 kt. Latest radar data indicates a pocket of 45-55 kt velocities around 1-2 kft. Deep-layer flow is rather weak, but some local enhancement is likely occurring as this activity is developing on the east side of an MCV/lead shortwave impulse shifting east toward the Middle Texas Coast. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s are supporting a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line of convection. However, low and mid-level lapse rates remain weak, while DCAPE values are less than 1000 J/kg. Forecast RAP soundings do indicate a modest dry layer just above the surface, which could aid in stronger outflow as the convection advances quickly northward. Locally strong gusts may accompany this activity the remainder of the morning, but overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal and a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 28779529 28969542 29839554 30149551 30329539 30429514 30519450 30479415 30319391 29949381 29409386 29099398 28919412 28799443 28759488 28779529 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous thunderstorms are expected from west-central Texas into the ArkLaMiss region, some of which will produce hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this period will be a pronounced synoptic-scale trough -- initially located over the Rockies. An embedded vorticity maximum -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over south-central CO -- is expected to strengthen into a closed cyclone over the next several hours. The associated 500-mb low should reach east-central/southeastern CO near the KS border by 00Z, with trough south-southwestward across the TX Big Bend region. The low will move eastward over western KS overnight, while the trough assumes neutral to slightly negative tilt, reaching the TX Hill Country and Rio Grande Valley near LRD by the end of the period. A shortwave trough now evident over the Four Corners region should dig southeastward across NM today, perhaps with some convective vorticity augmentation this afternoon/evening, then become a strong basal shortwave trough tonight over the TX South Plains region, before pivoting east-northeastward toward north-central TX/south-central OK. East of the synoptic trough, a series of small shortwave perturbations -- many of them convectively induced/enhanced vorticity lobes -- will pivot northeastward across the Gulf Coast States, lower Mississippi Valley region, and GA/Carolinas. One of those -- now apparent in reflectivity composites and satellite imagery over west-central/southwestern AL -- should move northeastward to the eastern parts of TN/KY this evening while weakening. Another may arise from an MCS now offshore from deep south TX, and pivot northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by this evening. Another -- related to ongoing convection over western OK and northwest TX -- should move northeastward to MO. There likely will be more. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over NC between CLT-POB, with warm front eastward across the southern Outer Banks, and wavy/quasistationary front west-southwestward to northern LA. The boundary continues diffusely into northeast TX and southern OK as a warm front. Warm frontogenesis was evident along a boundary extending near an SPS-OKC-TUL-JLN-OWB line, and that will become the main front today as the Red River-area boundary gets more diffuse. An outflow-reinforced frontal zone extended from the SPS area southwestward to near MAF, then to near CNM and SRR. The NC low should move slowly eastward across that state today, along the front, with only slight northward drift of the boundary expected just ahead of the low. A separate low should develop by afternoon over northern OK/southern KS, becoming better defined and moving northeastward over eastern KS tonight. The trailing, outflow-reinforced cold front will move southeastward across much of OK and west TX through tonight. By 12Z, the boundary should reach from a newer/frontal-wave low over the Arklatex region southwestward across south-central TX to the Rio Grande Valley in the LRD-DRT corridor. ...Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley... A complex convective scenario will unfold this period, driven primarily (but not entirely) by activity related to the baroclinic zone and the perturbation(s) aloft pivoting through the synoptic trough. Ongoing convection over OK and near the Red River may pose a marginal wind threat as it impinges on a boundary layer with weak lapse rates, but slowly/advectively strengthening warm-sector moisture and theta-e through the afternoon. The best-organized severe potential appears to be from two other processes: 1. New development along the baroclinic zone across north through west-central TX this afternoon, some of which may be supercellular at first with large to isolated very large hail, localized damaging gusts and a tornado or two. However, this activity should grow upscale to a squall line rapidly as frontal forcing encounters (and increasing large-scale ascent passes over) the very moist warm- sector boundary layer across north, central and perhaps parts of southwest TX. The main threat will evolve to damaging and severe wind -- especially with surging/bowing segments. Localized significant (65+kt) wind corridors may develop, but will depend on mesobeta- and smaller-scale convective/cold-pool processes whose evolution still is uncertain at this point. Some potential for QLCS tornadoes will exist with this MCS as well for several hours this evening, as it encounters a combination of surface-based effective-inflow parcels and enlarging boundary-layer hodographs/SRH beneath a strengthening LLJ. Strengthening mid/upper flow through the day will improve deep-layer shear, with effective- shear magnitudes topping 50 kt near the north-central/ west-central TX frontal segment. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should increase from around 1000 J/kg over eastern OK and AR to 2000-3000 J/kg across west-central TX and the Edwards Plateau vicinity. 2. A north-south, broken belt of convection forming in the post-frontal upslope-lift regime of east-central NM and moving southeastward. Though this activity will encounter some boundary- layer air processed by prior convection, it will be supported by residual moisture, midlevel cooling/lift near the trough, and modestly diurnally enhanced low-level instability, for a threat of strong-severe gusts and hail. Some of this convection may survive to reach the frontal zone over west-central TX, then either merge with or backbuild upon the above-mentioned MCS. ...Southeastern CONUS... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, predominantly this afternoon, in a broad area of the Southeast. Damaging gusts will be the main concern. Coverage will vary greatly within this area, but likely greatest along boundaries (outflow, sea-breeze and differential-heating), and where mesoscale areas of lift related to the MCV(s) move atop the generally favorably moist environment across the region. Modest midlevel lapse rates and generally weak mid/upper winds will keep deep shear weak over most of the area, with storms mainly multicellular in nature. Brief supercell structures may develop where mass response to MCV-related processes boosts hodograph size locally. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado also may occur over portions of eastern NC, south through east of the low where the moisture/buoyancy parameter space will be maximized today in combination with low-level shear. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 05/24/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
off the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development during the next couple of days while this system
moves little. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong
for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of
days a few hundred miles south or southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Further development is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Windy, dry conditions in Texas continue to push wildfires and burn tens of thousands of acres. Many sizeable blazes continued to burn in Texas including the Coconut fire in Wilbarger County, which had charred more than 28,000 acres and was 75% contained, according to the Texas Wildfire Incident Response system at Texas A&M University. The Mesquite Heat fire in Taylor County near Abilene has exhibited extreme fire behavior, blackened more than 9,600 acres and was about 25% contained on May 21. Some other fires: The Pope 2 fire in Schleicher County, covered more than 2,500 acres and was 90% contained. The Mayfield fire in San Saba County, which spanned almost 1,300 acres and was 95% contained. The Twin Starts fire in Llano County, which burned about 450 acres and was 90% contained. The Ghost fire in Dickens County, which charred 150 acres and was not contained. The Coppic fire in Brown County, which scorched 90 acres and was 90% contained. More than 130 Texas counties had burn bans, per the Forest Service. Texas Public Radio (San Antonio, Texas), May 21, 2022

Riverside County fire authorities have suspended all outdoor burn permits effective May 23 amid concerns that the 2022 wildfire season could be even more destructive than past years, due to the persistent megadrought. Under the ban, residents cannot get a permit to burn landscape debris on their property. The ability to have campfires is not affected by the ban on outdoor burn permits, as residents can still get a campfire permit. Warmer temperatures and parched vegetation are fueling critical fire behavior. San Bernardino County Sun (Calif.), May 22, 2022

The Spokane City Council voted in favor of a water conservation and drought ordinance limiting lawns watering to no more than four days per week. From June 1 through Oct. 1, it is prohibited to water outdoor vegetation between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. KXLY-TV ABC 4 (Spokane, Wash.), May 23, 2022

Sacramento Valley’s water supply has been certain even during deep droughts in the past, but this year, for the first time ever, no water is flowing to land in the Western Sacramento Valley. Farmers and ranchers are trying to sustain their cattle and crops, refuges will get less water threatening migratory birds, and millions of salmon eggs are expected to die for lack of cold water from Shasta Dam. Even Sacramento River Settlement Contractors will receive just 18% in an effort to leave more water in Lake Shasta to keep enough cold water to stave off salmon egg deaths, but still more than half of the endangered winter-run Chinook salmon eggs are expected to die, according to the National Marine Fisheries Service. CalMatters (Sacramento, Calif.), May 23, 2022