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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, and over parts of the Central Plains through evening. ...Ohio Valley... Scattered storms persist near the cold front, from southern IN across central OH and into WV. These cells may produce marginally severe hail, with storm longevity aided by long, straight hodographs. Ample moisture and instability remains mainly north of the OH River, in part due to cool temperatures aloft, and will support strong storms for a few hours before the boundary layer cools and stabilizes. ...Central Plains... Widely spaced storms persist across the central High Plains, along with isolated cells into central NE and eastern OK. Given that the area is beneath the upper ridge, the loss of heating should result in a downward trend in storm strength. Marginal hail or wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms through early evening. Additional storms are possible this evening and overnight near an east-west stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across OK and into AR. While shear will remain weak, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along with nocturnal warm advection with southwesterly 850 mb flow will support scattered storms through early morning. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with rather disorganized convection. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2019 Read more

A burn ban not to exceed 90 days was issued in Williamson County by a county judge. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug. 6, 2019

Hays County commissioners reinstated a burn ban for the unincorporated parts of the county. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug. 6, 2019

Travis County commissioners banned burning in unincorporated parts of the county through Sept. 11. As dry weather continued, the fire potential was increasing. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug. 6, 2019

Zapata County officials requested that Gov. Greg Abbott declare the county a disaster area, due to exceptional drought. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Aug. 7, 2019

Pastures and hay fields in the Coastal Bend were deteriorating and needed rain. Hay producers got a second cutting of hay, but need rain to make a third. Stock ponds were running dry. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Aug. 7, 2019

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 8 23:30:06 UTC 2019.

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ABE TO 30 N EWR TO 35 E POU TO 20 NNE BAF TO 20 N EEN. ..COOK..08/08/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-007-009-013-090040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND MAC011-013-015-090040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE NJC003-031-090040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN PASSAIC Read more

WW 563 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA VT 082040Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of western and central Connecticut western Massachusetts northern New Jersey southeastern New York parts of eastern Pennsylvania southern Vermont * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across southeast New York/northeast Pennsylvania and vicinity at this time will continue eastward over the next few hours, accompanied by a risk for locally damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Keene NH to 60 miles southwest of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 562... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Goss Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms continues
along and to the south of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and eastern Mexico. A low pressure area is forecast to form within
this area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend, and
environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
the formation of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Some thunderstorm activity is expected
to continue onshore the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and
eastern Mexico tonight and Friday, producing locally heavy rainfall,
especially in mountainous areas. These rains are forecast to
gradually spread westward along the coast of southeastern Mexico
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE PKB TO 10 W PIT TO 15 NNW LBE TO 5 WSW UNV TO 20 ESE AVP TO 30 SSW PSF TO 10 N PSF TO 10 SW RUT. ..COOK..08/08/19 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BGM...BUF...BTV...ALY...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC023-082340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARRETT NYC027-082340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUTCHESS PAC003-009-013-021-037-051-059-061-069-079-087-093-097-103-109- 111-119-125-129-082340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA COLUMBIA FAYETTE Read more

WW 562 SEVERE TSTM MD NY OH PA WV LO 081635Z - 090000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of far western Maryland central and northern New York parts of eastern Ohio a large portion of Pennsylvania the western panhandle of West Virginia Lake Ontario * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of strong/locally severe thunderstorms continues to organize as it moves across western New York/northern Pennsylvania, with other/more isolated storms to continue increasing from eastern Ohio eastward across Pennsylvania. Locally damaging winds will occur with the strongest storms, along with some hail risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Utica NY to 45 miles southwest of Latrobe PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Goss Read more

A 7-day emergency burn ban took effect in Parker County after a county judge ordered it due to heat, low humidity and no rain in the near future. Weatherford Democrat (Texas), Aug. 8, 2019

Guadalupe County commissioners approved a 90-day burn ban, due to hot, dry weather and an uptick in brush fires in the county. Seguin Gazette-Enterprise (Texas), Aug. 7, 2019

Dry weather and heat prompted Walker and Lee county officials to enact burn bans until further notice. KBTX-TV Channel 3 Bryan (Texas), Aug. 5, 2019

Bans on outdoor burning took effect on Aug. 1 for Kendall, Kerr and Blanco counties as heat and a lack of rain increased the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, indicating rising fire danger. My San Antonio.com (Texas), Aug. 7, 2019

WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ZZV TO 5 NW PIT TO 25 S DUJ TO 30 NW AVP TO 20 WNW MSV TO 40 NE MSV TO 15 SW ALB TO 30 NW ALB TO 30 SSE SLK. ..COOK..08/08/19 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BGM...BUF...BTV...ALY...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC023-082240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARRETT NYC001-021-027-039-083-091-093-105-111-113-115-082240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS GREENE RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SULLIVAN ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-082240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..COOK..08/08/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-082240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND MAC003-011-013-015-082240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE NJC003-031-037-041-082240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN PASSAIC SUSSEX WARREN Read more

The 441 fire is a lightning-caused fire, located roughly 5 miles east of Durango, 8 miles north of Highway 160, and 2.5 miles north of County Road 240 on the Columbine Ranger District of the San Juan National Forest. It was discovered July 13th and is approximately 330 acres in size. The fire is located in an area that will allow fire to play its natural role in our fire-adapted ecosystem. Fire fighters are working to establish control lines along existing trails and some of these trails are now closed as a result. See the closure tab on this site for a map of the closure area and the text of the closure order.The fire is burning in Ponderosa Pine and an area of significant dead and down within the Missionary Ridge fire scar. This type of wildfire will be allowed to naturally burn through this area to remove fuels that could feed future, severe wildfires. While there is no set end date for the wildfire, forest managers have identified a planning area of about 2,000 acres within which...

WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PIT TO 35 NNE IPT TO 35 N MSV TO 40 N UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1676 ..SMITH..08/08/19 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BGM...BUF...BTV...ALY...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC023-082130- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARRETT NYC001-021-025-027-033-035-039-041-043-057-083-089-091-093-095- 105-111-113-115-082130- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY COLUMBIA DELAWARE DUTCHESS FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER MONTGOMERY RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON Read more