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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KS TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central to southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough across the central to southern Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will still remain on the backside of the trough before finally ejecting through the base on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains. This low should reach the Upper Midwest by 12Z Monday, with additional cyclogenesis occurring in west TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup is expected on Sunday into Sunday night with multiple competing elements that should support/hinder severe potential, along with substantial mesoscale uncertainty. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk remains warranted at this juncture. Extensive convection is expected late D1 through much of D2 across the southern High Plains into the central and southern Great Plains. Some of this will linger into Sunday, most likely in the OK to north TX area. With persistent low-level warm theta-e advection and upper-level difluence, convection may continue through the diurnal heating cycle. Best chance for severe in this regime may be focused along the trailing outflow/baroclinic zone where it intersects with the west TX dryline. A separate area of severe potential should develop near the central High Plains cyclone in western to central KS. Here, steeper mid-level lapse rates along and another day of moisture influx should be adequate for late afternoon to evening storms. With eastern extent, however, the deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection may yield a more confined/limited MLCAPE plume in KS/NE. A final round of severe convection may develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent becomes strong ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across all regimes, mid to upper hodograph elongation should be pronounced, yielding a conditionally favorable environment for supercells and organized clusters. ..Grams.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KS TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central to southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough across the central to southern Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will still remain on the backside of the trough before finally ejecting through the base on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains. This low should reach the Upper Midwest by 12Z Monday, with additional cyclogenesis occurring in west TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup is expected on Sunday into Sunday night with multiple competing elements that should support/hinder severe potential, along with substantial mesoscale uncertainty. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk remains warranted at this juncture. Extensive convection is expected late D1 through much of D2 across the southern High Plains into the central and southern Great Plains. Some of this will linger into Sunday, most likely in the OK to north TX area. With persistent low-level warm theta-e advection and upper-level difluence, convection may continue through the diurnal heating cycle. Best chance for severe in this regime may be focused along the trailing outflow/baroclinic zone where it intersects with the west TX dryline. A separate area of severe potential should develop near the central High Plains cyclone in western to central KS. Here, steeper mid-level lapse rates along and another day of moisture influx should be adequate for late afternoon to evening storms. With eastern extent, however, the deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection may yield a more confined/limited MLCAPE plume in KS/NE. A final round of severe convection may develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent becomes strong ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across all regimes, mid to upper hodograph elongation should be pronounced, yielding a conditionally favorable environment for supercells and organized clusters. ..Grams.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KS TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central to southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough across the central to southern Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will still remain on the backside of the trough before finally ejecting through the base on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains. This low should reach the Upper Midwest by 12Z Monday, with additional cyclogenesis occurring in west TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup is expected on Sunday into Sunday night with multiple competing elements that should support/hinder severe potential, along with substantial mesoscale uncertainty. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk remains warranted at this juncture. Extensive convection is expected late D1 through much of D2 across the southern High Plains into the central and southern Great Plains. Some of this will linger into Sunday, most likely in the OK to north TX area. With persistent low-level warm theta-e advection and upper-level difluence, convection may continue through the diurnal heating cycle. Best chance for severe in this regime may be focused along the trailing outflow/baroclinic zone where it intersects with the west TX dryline. A separate area of severe potential should develop near the central High Plains cyclone in western to central KS. Here, steeper mid-level lapse rates along and another day of moisture influx should be adequate for late afternoon to evening storms. With eastern extent, however, the deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection may yield a more confined/limited MLCAPE plume in KS/NE. A final round of severe convection may develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent becomes strong ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across all regimes, mid to upper hodograph elongation should be pronounced, yielding a conditionally favorable environment for supercells and organized clusters. ..Grams.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough, preceded by strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow, will advance slowly eastward across the western CONUS. This will promote breezy south-southwesterly surface winds from the Southwest into the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions and dry fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough tracking east-northeastward across the Northeast, deep tropospheric drying will occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic behind a related cold front. A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level flow will yield 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph). These winds will overlap 25-35 percent RH behind the front during the afternoon, and given very dry fuels across the region (90th percentile ERCs), a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. While there will be some potential for isolated early-day showers along the front, this activity should be too light and/or isolated to have an appreciable impact on the receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough tracking east-northeastward across the Northeast, deep tropospheric drying will occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic behind a related cold front. A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level flow will yield 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph). These winds will overlap 25-35 percent RH behind the front during the afternoon, and given very dry fuels across the region (90th percentile ERCs), a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. While there will be some potential for isolated early-day showers along the front, this activity should be too light and/or isolated to have an appreciable impact on the receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough tracking east-northeastward across the Northeast, deep tropospheric drying will occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic behind a related cold front. A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level flow will yield 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph). These winds will overlap 25-35 percent RH behind the front during the afternoon, and given very dry fuels across the region (90th percentile ERCs), a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. While there will be some potential for isolated early-day showers along the front, this activity should be too light and/or isolated to have an appreciable impact on the receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough tracking east-northeastward across the Northeast, deep tropospheric drying will occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic behind a related cold front. A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level flow will yield 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph). These winds will overlap 25-35 percent RH behind the front during the afternoon, and given very dry fuels across the region (90th percentile ERCs), a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. While there will be some potential for isolated early-day showers along the front, this activity should be too light and/or isolated to have an appreciable impact on the receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough tracking east-northeastward across the Northeast, deep tropospheric drying will occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic behind a related cold front. A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level flow will yield 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph). These winds will overlap 25-35 percent RH behind the front during the afternoon, and given very dry fuels across the region (90th percentile ERCs), a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. While there will be some potential for isolated early-day showers along the front, this activity should be too light and/or isolated to have an appreciable impact on the receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles, within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak, suggesting localized strong gusts early. A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple tornadoes may develop as well. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection, the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night. ..Grams.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles, within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak, suggesting localized strong gusts early. A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple tornadoes may develop as well. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection, the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night. ..Grams.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles, within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak, suggesting localized strong gusts early. A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple tornadoes may develop as well. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection, the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night. ..Grams.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles, within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak, suggesting localized strong gusts early. A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple tornadoes may develop as well. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection, the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night. ..Grams.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles, within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak, suggesting localized strong gusts early. A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple tornadoes may develop as well. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection, the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night. ..Grams.. 11/01/2024 Read more

Valley High School in Wetzel County will be closed on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 because the school lacks water due to drought. Classes will be remote on those days. Decisions have not yet been made about classes next week. WDTV-TV (Bridgeport, W.V.), Oct 31, 2024

Dry, warm conditions persisted in Southwest Texas. Temperatures rose back into the high-80s, with no rain in sight. Soils remained dry with visible cracks, and forage availability dwindled. The last cotton bales were hauled to the gin. The pecan harvest was completed. High temperatures and a lack of moisture prevented cool-season forage from germinating, while warm-season plants continued to go dormant. There was a significant amount of dry fuel that could contribute to fire risks. Irrigated oats and wheat looked fair, but pastures and rangelands dried up due to above-average temperatures and insufficient rainfall. Water well levels were a concern, and Canyon Lake’s levels dropped to the point that stricter water restrictions were anticipated. Livestock received supplementation and were mostly in fair condition. Wildlife were active, with whitetail bucks beginning their rut. There was a slight chance of rain in the forecast, with cooler temperatures expected. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 29, 2024 Dry conditions continued in Southwest Texas, and it was very dusty. Overnight temperatures dropped to the high 60s to low 70s. No rainfall was reported, and none was in the forecast. Moisture conditions continued to decline, leading to a deterioration in pasture and rangeland conditions. Emerged small grains were holding on, but producers were waiting to plant winter forages until they received some moisture. The cotton harvest concluded, yielding better results than the previous year for both irrigated and dryland fields. Producers sold cattle at lighter weights, and some were destocking their herd. Stock tanks were drying up, necessitating supplemental water for livestock. Livestock markets were steady. Acorn crops matured as deer season began, and livestock grazed and received some supplemental forage. Wildlife were active and seeking water. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 16, 2024 Conditions in Southwest Texas were hot and humid with no rain and some relief from cooler morning temperatures. Nighttime temperatures dropped into the mid-50s to 60s in some areas. There was no rain and soils were drying and beginning to crack. Row crop harvests were complete. Pastures were going dormant and forage quality declined due to the dry conditions. Wildlife activity started to pick up as oaks and wild pecans began to drop nuts and acorns. White-tailed deer became more active. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Overall, livestock and wildlife remained in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 1, 2024