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WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CBM TO 25 NNE BHM TO 25 NW ATL TO 5 N AHN TO 20 S AND. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-021-027-029-037-047-051-057-063-065- 073-075-081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121- 123-125-127-182240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER GAC009-013-021-023-035-045-053-059-063-067-077-079-081-089-091- 093-097-113-121-125-133-135-141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163- 167-169-171-175-193-195-197-199-207-211-215-217-219-221-223-225- 231-233-235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-285-289-293-297- Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CBM TO 25 NNE BHM TO 25 NW ATL TO 5 N AHN TO 20 S AND. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-021-027-029-037-047-051-057-063-065- 073-075-081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121- 123-125-127-182240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER GAC009-013-021-023-035-045-053-059-063-067-077-079-081-089-091- 093-097-113-121-125-133-135-141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163- 167-169-171-175-193-195-197-199-207-211-215-217-219-221-223-225- 231-233-235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-285-289-293-297- Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-007-011-013-017-019-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-125-127-131-143-149-182240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BENTON BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL LAC035-065-067-083-123-182240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-007-011-013-017-019-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-125-127-131-143-149-182240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BENTON BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL LAC035-065-067-083-123-182240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 182102 CCA TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 Correct depression to Gilma in the motion section ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 112.3W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 112.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Gilma is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 18 the center of Gilma was located near 14.7, -112.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

MD 1947 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1947 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...central Arkansas...northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181953Z - 182100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the afternoon with potential for large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is likely across central Arkansas into northern Mississippi over the next 1-2 hours as a cold front sags south through time. The air mass ahead of the front is characterized by as sharp MLCAPE gradient around 1000-3000 J/kg with temperatures near 100 F and dew points in the low to mid 70s. A belt of deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and the moist and unstable air mass will support multicell clusters, capable of damaging wind and instances of severe hail. A watch will likely be needed for portions of this area to cover this threat soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 33279179 32658985 32598899 32898866 33148849 33388848 33918832 34128845 34318965 34799083 35359212 35349216 36049315 36419410 36049457 35059446 34109355 33389217 33279179 Read more

MD 1945 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1945 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southern Virginia and the Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181858Z - 182100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cu across much of the region from central/southern Virginia southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development is likely to begin in these regions over the next 1-2 hours. A few cells have developed across western North Carolina near the higher terrain. The air mass east of this development is characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg with temperatures in the upper 80s-90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. This moist and unstable air mass will support multicell clusters capable of downbursts. A watch will likely be needed to cover this threat soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE... GSP... LAT...LON 33378181 33688201 33978199 35348160 36008126 36708076 37018039 37337988 37577930 37967789 38127730 37957664 37767606 37717601 35957705 34207883 32728138 33378181 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 20:44:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 21:29:12 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 182042 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 Despite continued moderate easterly vertical wind shear, deep convection has been expanding and has now built over the center of the system. Accordingly, the Dvorak estimates have nudged upward and are now between 30 and 35 kt. Based on those classifications and the improving convective pattern, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Gilma. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt is expected to continue during the next day or so, which should limit the amount of strengthening in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen some after that, and the somewhat more favorable upper-level wind environment combined with warm waters and a relatively moist atmosphere should allow for gradual strengthening throughout much of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and roughly between the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Gilma is moving west-northwestward, or 285 degrees, at 12 kt. A high pressure ridge situated to the system’s north should cause the storm to move westward to west-northwestward at about the same speed during the next couple of days. Later in the week, the models show the ridge weakening as a trough amplifies off the west coast of the U.S., which should cause the system to slow down and turn a bit to the right. There is quite a bit of along-track spread in the models, with the GFS being the slowest model and HWRF/HAFS the fastest. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one through 60 h and then is a little to the north of the prior track after that. This forecast is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.7N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 15.6N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 15.9N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.2N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 16.6N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 16.9N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 17.7N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 18.6N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 182041 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 13 29(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 115W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 11(38) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 182041 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 112.3W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 112.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. The depression is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 18 the center of Gilma was located near 14.7, -112.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 182041 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.6N 116.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 118.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 119.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 121.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.9N 122.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.7N 125.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.6N 127.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

MD 1946 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1946 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...northern Alabama...northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181921Z - 182045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the afternoon with potential for large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cu across much of northern Alabama and Georgia, with a few cells developing over the last 30 min to an hour. Thunderstorm development is likely to expand southward in coverage across these regions over the next 1-2 hours as a cold front sags south through time. The air mass ahead of the front is characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg with temperatures in the upper 80s - mid 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. A belt of deep layer shear around 35-40 kts and the moist and unstable air mass will support multicell clusters, capable of downbursts and instances of severe hail. A watch will likely be needed to cover this threat soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33528891 34388768 34448666 34448588 34468471 34398380 34358292 34118275 33778266 33458263 33078264 32868264 32818267 32378308 31788505 31908645 32088756 32148810 32348855 32528870 32738883 33018890 33438890 33528891 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more