Aggregator

Dry weather in Illinois hastened the harvest, but slowed fieldwork. The dry ground was too hard for some tillage tools. Vertical drilling was not possible because the machine would not go into the ground. Some farmers with newer rippers with rolling baskets were able to get through the field. Those with older tools were leaving enormous clods of dirt. Field fires have also been a problem as the strong winds and low humidity have fueled fires across the state. Heat and drought have also delayed applications of anhydrous ammonia. The soil also needs to be somewhat moist to capture the ammonia or it is wasted. Farm Week Now (Bloomington, Ill.), Oct 31, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The soybean harvest was about four weeks ahead. In Langlade, Marinette, Oconto and Shawano counties, many farms were done harvesting at a time when farmers would typically begin to harvest. Dry weather has hurt crop quality. While soybeans are ideally sold at 14% moisture, farmers were finding the beans at 10% or lower. Soybeans were also smaller than normal. Cover crops have been planted since the harvest was completed earlier than usual, but the lack of moisture in the soil has slowed germination. In drought-affected corn fields, there were more broken stalks and fallen cobs, lowering potential yields. Wisconsin Public Radio (Madison), Oct 24, 2024

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

Rainfall has been scarce in New Jersey for much of the year. At present, farmers need moisture so they can plant cover crops, winter wheat and other crops. The crops most affected by the drought were corn, soybeans and cranberries. The berries require a lot of water, but crop losses ranged from 30% to 80%. KYW-AM 1060 Philadelphia (Pa.), Oct 31, 2024

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more