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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Pacific Coastal states on Friday, as flow remains southwesterly at mid-levels across much of the western and central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains on Friday, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F over much of Texas. By late Friday afternoon, a pocket of moderate instability is expected over parts of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop during the early evening near this pocket of instability. As moisture and low-level flow gradually increase across the southern Plains from the evening into the overnight, convective coverage is expected to expand north and northeastward across much of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A consensus of model forecasts suggests that MLCAPE will peak around 1500 J/kg in parts of west Texas Friday evening. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. The moderate deep-layer shear, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, should support the development of a severe threat. Most of the cells are expected to remain multicellular. However, areas where the environment is locally more favored could support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts. The late initiation and lack of large-scale ascent is expected to be a limiting factor, and should keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Pacific Coastal states on Friday, as flow remains southwesterly at mid-levels across much of the western and central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains on Friday, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F over much of Texas. By late Friday afternoon, a pocket of moderate instability is expected over parts of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop during the early evening near this pocket of instability. As moisture and low-level flow gradually increase across the southern Plains from the evening into the overnight, convective coverage is expected to expand north and northeastward across much of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A consensus of model forecasts suggests that MLCAPE will peak around 1500 J/kg in parts of west Texas Friday evening. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. The moderate deep-layer shear, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, should support the development of a severe threat. Most of the cells are expected to remain multicellular. However, areas where the environment is locally more favored could support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts. The late initiation and lack of large-scale ascent is expected to be a limiting factor, and should keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Pacific Coastal states on Friday, as flow remains southwesterly at mid-levels across much of the western and central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains on Friday, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F over much of Texas. By late Friday afternoon, a pocket of moderate instability is expected over parts of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop during the early evening near this pocket of instability. As moisture and low-level flow gradually increase across the southern Plains from the evening into the overnight, convective coverage is expected to expand north and northeastward across much of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A consensus of model forecasts suggests that MLCAPE will peak around 1500 J/kg in parts of west Texas Friday evening. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. The moderate deep-layer shear, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, should support the development of a severe threat. Most of the cells are expected to remain multicellular. However, areas where the environment is locally more favored could support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts. The late initiation and lack of large-scale ascent is expected to be a limiting factor, and should keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Pacific Coastal states on Friday, as flow remains southwesterly at mid-levels across much of the western and central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains on Friday, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F over much of Texas. By late Friday afternoon, a pocket of moderate instability is expected over parts of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop during the early evening near this pocket of instability. As moisture and low-level flow gradually increase across the southern Plains from the evening into the overnight, convective coverage is expected to expand north and northeastward across much of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A consensus of model forecasts suggests that MLCAPE will peak around 1500 J/kg in parts of west Texas Friday evening. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. The moderate deep-layer shear, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, should support the development of a severe threat. Most of the cells are expected to remain multicellular. However, areas where the environment is locally more favored could support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts. The late initiation and lack of large-scale ascent is expected to be a limiting factor, and should keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more

WW 0697 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE JLN TO 45 NNE SGF TO 25 NNE COU TO 15 S UIN. ..LEITMAN..10/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 697 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-009-027-029-043-051-059-067-073-077-105-109-119-125-131- 139-145-151-153-161-167-169-173-209-213-215-225-229-310640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BARRY CALLAWAY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN COLE DALLAS DOUGLAS GASCONADE GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES MILLER MONTGOMERY NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI RALLS STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

343
ABPZ20 KNHC 310501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 1700 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing limited showers and thunderstorms. Development, if
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next
couple of days while the system moves generally westward at about
15 mph. This system is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific
Basin by the weekend, where environmental conditions look
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some development of this system is possible during the next few
days while the low moves slowly to the west-northwest. By the end
of the week, however, upper-level winds should become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Dry conditions put the crop harvest at least two weeks ahead of schedule in Chippewa, Dunn and Eau Claire counties. The corn harvest was about 12 days ahead of schedule, per the USDA’s crop progress report. Dry weather has hurt crop quality. While soybeans are ideally sold at 14% moisture, farmers were finding the beans at 10% or lower. Soybeans were also smaller than normal. Cover crops have been planted since the harvest was completed earlier than usual, but the lack of moisture in the soil has slowed germination. In drought-affected corn fields, there were more broken stalks and fallen cobs, lowering potential yields Wisconsin Public Radio (Madison), Oct 24, 2024

Drought conditions continued for most South Plains counties. Some very brief showers were received in the southeastern part of the district this past weekend. Farmers continued to defoliate cotton and strip fields that were ready. Winter wheat was still being planted, but much of it had not emerged due to the very dry conditions. Cattle were in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 29, 2024 Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were declining in most areas of the South Plains due to a lack of recent rainfall. High temperatures were in the low 90s, and lows ranged from the mid-60s to low-70s. Wheat planting continued. Cotton was progressing and bolls were opening. Many irrigated cotton farmers started to apply defoliants to their fields. Some dryland fields could be defoliated and harvested, but yield returns were estimated to be less than a bale per acre. Armyworms continued to be a problem with several wheat fields experiencing major infestations. Pumpkins were still being harvested, and peanuts were nearing the end with producers expected to begin digging soon. Cattle were in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 1, 2024

Dry, unseasonably hot conditions persisted in the Coastal Bend, with no rain for 60 days and temperatures still in the 90s. Soil moisture remained low, limiting fall fieldwork and bedding to lighter soils. Grain producers arranged fertilizer and seed for the new year, but winter pasture planting was minimal so far due to high costs and lack of moisture. Pastures were dormant and drying out, with some producers feeding hay to livestock. Hay remained plentiful, but supplemental feeding increased significantly in heavily stocked areas. Cattle remained in good condition, while numbers at area sale barns remained high. The pecan harvest started. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 29, 2024 Weather conditions remained hot and dry in the Coastal Bend, with no rain and daily temperatures reaching the 90s. Soil moisture continued to decline, which put fieldwork on hold in some areas. Hay baling continued, but yields were lower due to the ongoing dry spell. Minimal winter pasture was planted, and many producers’ pastures were stressed with deteriorating grasses and lower-quality forage. Despite the lack of green grass, livestock remained in good condition. Cattle prices remained steady, and fall cattle work continued. The pecan harvest was minimal, and some native bottoms went unharvested due to light yields. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 16, 2024 Field preparations continued for most operations in the Coastal Bend. There were a few wet spots, but for the most part soil moisture conditions were drier than desired. Rangeland and pasture conditions remained good for most operations, but dry conditions were impacting growth. Armyworms showed up in some fields and pastures. Fall tillage was underway for corn fields. Acres planted for winter pasture were expected to be low this year due to an abundance of hay. Livestock continued to do well where grass was available and forage management was good. Fall cattle working continued, with large numbers being sold at area sale barns. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 1, 2024

Drought conditions affected Central Texas, and conditions were declining. Temperatures were cooler in the morning but warmed up to near- or record-high temperatures. Most pastures were in fair condition but were starting to show signs of stress. Stock tanks continued to dry down. The weather was favorable for harvesting peanuts, pecans, hay and cotton, which were close to wrapping up, but conditions were not good for dryland small grain crops. Most small grains planting stopped until it rains, and most planted fields failed to emerge, or emerged fields were dying off. The cattle, sheep and goat markets looked good. Livestock were in good condition despite beginning to run out of pasture. Stockpiled forages and supplements were given to livestock. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 29, 2024 Hay was either baled or cut for the last crop in Central Texas. The grass and crops were not suffering yet, but stock tanks were dropping, and water quality deteriorated. Corn stunt disease was found in some fields grown for silage. Winter wheat planting and field preparations continued. Armyworms were spotted, prompting treatment efforts, and fly numbers remained an issue for livestock. Livestock diets were being supplemented. Feral hogs continued to cause property damage, leading to trapping efforts in some areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 16, 2024 Half of Central Texas experienced excellent rain that greened up pastures, filled lakes and tanks, and generally improved conditions. The other half faced dry conditions and increasing drought. The entire district did experience a slight drop in temperatures. Some fields were too wet to plow, and pastures showed an increase in invasive weeds. The pecan and peanut harvests began, and winter grain planting started. The cotton harvest continued, and fall armyworms were noticed in hay fields. Livestock thrived on pastures in areas that received rain, with cattle remaining in good body condition. Producers began feeding hay and supplementing in areas where pasture conditions were declining. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 1, 2024

Unseasonably hot and dry conditions persisted in the Rolling Plains. Wheat planting slowed. Some farmers were still trying to dry plant with hopes of rain in the coming week, and others held off for planting after rain. Cotton fields not declared as failed were expected to yield very poorly. Rain was needed to replenish livestock drinking sources and help grass growth. Cattle prices were favorable for producers who continued to cull their herds. High winds and dry vegetation had all counties concerned about wildfires breaking out. Most of the district remained under a burn ban, with red flag warnings due to the dry conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 29, 2024 The Rolling Plains remained dry and unseasonably warm. Wheat planting slowed dramatically, and some dry-sewn areas had to be replanted due to drought conditions. Armyworms were reported in numerous counties. Producers reported increased fly numbers in cattle pastures and continued issues with grasshoppers. Livestock remained in decent condition, but a heavy and prolonged rain was needed to fill drinking water sources going into the fall and winter months. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 16, 2024 The Rolling Plains faced hot and dry weather that significantly impacted local vegetation and crops. Oak trees were suffering from dieback and low acorn production, while pecans were small and sparse. Wheat struggled due to insufficient water, although plantings increased after some recent rains. Pests like grasshoppers and armyworms were a concern. The cotton crop declined due to the lack of rain. Livestock were receiving feed supplementation. Early planted wheat was doing well in some areas. Overall conditions remained extremely dry, with some wheat being replanted due to washout. Hay fields benefited from cooler temperatures and recent rain. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 1, 2024 Extremely unfavorable conditions persisted across the Rolling Plains as farmers and ranchers endured the unrelenting heat and lack of rain. Cultivated crops were all showing signs of stress or nearing failure. Grasses in both pastures and roadsides were completely dried up, and the risk of wildfires was a constant danger. Some producers opted to ship or sell cattle due to diminishing pasture grazing. Grasshoppers remained across the area, even with little for them to consume. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 5, 2024

Drought conditions persisted in the district with burn bans issued in most areas. Ponds and creeks continued to dry up. Producers had mostly decided to hold off on planting winter pastures until rain arrived. Hay production wrapped up for the year. Livestock were in fair to good condition, with some supplementation taking place. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 29, 2024 Several East Texas counties were put under burn bans. Little to no rainfall worsened the drought conditions. Where possible, producers continued hay production. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short, and grass was turning brown. Pond, lake and creek water levels dropped. Some producers were holding off on planting winter pastures. Livestock were in fair to good condition, with some feed supplementation occurring. Wild pig damage continued. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 16, 2024 East Texas experienced a few showers and cooler temperatures but needed moisture. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate to short. Hay production slowed, and producers began to prepare for planting winter pastures. Cattle market prices were lower, and livestock were in fair to good condition. Armyworm infestations remained a significant problem for forage producers. Anderson County reported severe damage by feral hogs. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 1, 2024 Several counties in East Texas received much needed rainfall, however, much more will be needed to replenish soil moisture. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short to adequate. Hay production has slowed but continued. Livestock were in fair to good condition. The cattle market was steady to higher in most classes. Producers continued the fight against armyworm infestations. Feral hogs were moving and have increased their destruction. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 5, 2024

Soil moisture levels in Southeast Texas were adequate to very short. Most of the counties implemented burn bans due to extremely dry conditions. Conditions were hot and dry, but there were chances of rainfall in the forecast for some areas. Planting winter forages like ryegrass and oats was delayed due to drought conditions. The lack of winter grazing may cause an increased demand for hay this winter. Pastures were getting dry, and the pond levels were dropping. Rangeland and pasture ratings varied from fair to very poor. The cotton harvest was wrapping up. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 29, 2024 Drought conditions continued in Southeast Texas, and burn bans were initiated. Cotton harvest continued and was nearing completion in some counties. Pastures and available forage continued to decline. Soil moisture levels throughout the district were very short to adequate to very short. The first crop rice harvest was wrapping up. A cold front with lower humidity levels was in the forecast, raising concerns for wildfires. Rangeland and pasture ratings varied from poor to fair. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 16, 2024 Some areas of Southeast Texas received showers, but many counties experienced a lack of rain, leading to increased drought conditions and signs of stress in pastures. Available forages for grazing were limited and some pastures looked overgrazed. Some teal ducks were spotted over rice fields. The last round of summer forage harvest continued. Most cotton was defoliated in preparation for harvest, while cotton harvest wrapped in some areas with yields averaging 3 bales per acre. Rice harvest progressed, but the last rice was not maturing as quickly as farmers would like. Some organic and late-planted conventional rice remained unharvested. The corn harvest was complete, with one county reporting yields over 140 bushels per acre. Most pastures, ponds and cattle were still in good shape. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 1, 2024 Parts of Southeast Texas experienced drought and excessive temperatures. Soil moisture levels ranged from very short to adequate. Montgomery, Hardin and San Jacinto counties received some moisture, which benefited growing conditions in forage production around the district. Corn and sorghum harvests were complete, and cotton harvest neared completion. Rangeland and pastures were poor to excellent. Ryegrass was planted, but pastures were showing signs of drought stress. There were reports of fall armyworm damage. Some hay producers started a third cutting, and there was an abundance of round bales and standing pasture for winter. The rice harvest was delayed due to rain and a bottleneck at the commercial dryers but restarted later in the week. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 17, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms producing marginally severe gusts will be possible today, from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A moderate cyclonic flow regime aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the Plains, and across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The most prominent feature within this regime will be a shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley early in the day, which will move into the upper Great Lakes through 00Z. To the west, a lower-amplitude feature will nose into northern Great Basin during the day and into the northern High Plains by Friday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move across WI and northern Lower MI during the day, with a cold front roughly from the OH Valley into central TX by late afternoon. A midlevel dry slot will develop across MO, IL, and Lower MI, with veering 850 mb winds resulting in low-level drying. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will be most robust over TX, with a narrow plume of mid 60s F dewpoints perhaps as far north as the OH River. ...OH Valley southwestward into northeast TX... Lingering rain and a few thunderstorms may exist at 12Z from southern IL across southeast MO and into northern TX near the cold front. Much of this activity, especially over northern areas, is expected to wane. Daytime heating may result in destabilization from southwest OH across parts of KY, TN, and into the lower MS Valley, with new cells developing along the front. While deep layer shear and mean wind speeds in general will remain conducive for wind gusts, instability will be weak over northern areas. Stronger instability will exist into TX/Lower MS Valley where dewpoints will be near 70 F, but a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist, with weakening low-level wind fields. As such, only isolated marginally severe gusts are expected in any one area. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 10/31/2024 Read more