Aggregator

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States, and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening. ...Central High to northern Great Plains... A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies, with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts. This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon. ...Sabine Valley... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for a few strong downbursts and small hail. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more

MD 1930 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN OHIO...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1930 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Areas affected...Southern Ohio...Central Kentucky...Northern Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171731Z - 171930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind to increase in cover through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...An increase in cumulus development is noted in visible satellite across portions of central Kentucky along and ahead of an approaching cold front across IL/IN. A cluster of elevated convection continues to move across areas north of Lexington, with objective analysis still indicated some MLCIN may remain in place across the region. Additional cells are also developing north of Bowling Green. Daytime heating has led to temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s, with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. As a mid-level speed max and large scale forcing spreads across this region this afternoon, further thunderstorm development is expected to continue through the afternoon and evening, with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds. Should storms intensify, a watch may be needed to cover this threat later in the afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37098680 38078585 38908464 39628358 39688276 39618272 38988277 38518290 38088303 36738459 36208583 36688694 37098680 Read more

WW 0630 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0630 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0630 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0630 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 17 17:55:02 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a distinct area of
showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for
additional development of this system through the weekend, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad trough of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to
its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual
development of this system is forecasted if it remains the dominant
disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle
part of next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system
developing to its east. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South from mid-afternoon to early evening on Sunday. ...Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic States... A persistent, slow-moving mid/upper trough from the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians should amplify slightly as a mid/upper jetlet digs into the basal portion of the trough. This will result in the belt of enhanced northwesterly to west-southwesterly mid-level flow becoming centered across the Southeast by Sunday afternoon. Occluded surface cyclone should drift east across southern ON into western NY. An arcing cold front will largely extend south across the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast before trailing westward over the Deep South to Lower MS Valley. Hot temperatures from 95-103 F are expected at peak heating along the trailing portion of the front west of the Carolinas. This should yield moderate to large buoyancy amid moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated towards late afternoon along the weakly convergent front. While severe hail is possible, the rather warm thermodynamic profile should largely support a primary threat of scattered damaging winds from strong to severe wind gusts. Confidence is below average in where south-southeast moving clusters should develop, so have maintained a broad level 2-SLGT risk despite some embedded areas likely not having thunder occur. Convective coverage may become widespread across parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic States where larger-scale ascent with stronger low-level convergence is expected. Although deep-layer shear should be comparatively weaker along with poor mid-level lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and adequate heating should be sufficient for a scattered wind damage threat. Strong to localized severe gusts with slow, eastward-moving multicell clusters will be possible, and the level 2-SLGT risk has been expanded north. ...Central Plains and the Black Hills... A mid/upper ridge will remain anchored across the High Plains between the trough over the East and a trough along the Pacific Northwest coast. A plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will persist from the Ozarks into the central High Plains within a modest northwesterly mid-level flow regime. At least isolated elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across central parts of NE/SD. There's a low probability that this activity could strengthen during the day with a primary threat of isolated severe hail as it gradually sinks southward, or additional isolated surface-based storms may form within the lingering differential heating zone later in the afternoon. Isolated high-based storms may also develop from the Black Hills to eastern CO and spread east-southeast. Localized severe wind/hail will be possible through about dusk. ...Eastern Great Basin to central MT... Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the western periphery of the buoyancy plume across the Intermountain West and Rockies. Mid-level southwesterlies will be modestly greater across the eastern Great Basin with peripheral influence of the northward-moving shortwave trough along the Pacific Northwest coast. This should yield moderate storm motions and a threat for sporadic severe gusts with high-based convection. A similar steep lapse rate environment will extend farther north into central MT. However, closer proximity to the mid-level ridge should yield weak deep-layer shear. More pulse-type thunderstorms are expected here, but a threat for dry microbursts capable of strong gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 08/17/2024 Read more