Aggregator

The South Dakota wheat crop was variable across the state. In some places, the seed had not germinated, with the seed in dry dirt. In other areas, the stand of wheat was good. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Nov 1, 2024

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 1 23:54:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 1 23:54:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to the southern Plains by Monday morning. ...Central and southern Plains... The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate, given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this, an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which may persist well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 11/01/2024 Read more