Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 2 18:27:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more