Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A benign pattern for appreciable severe appears likely to commence by D4/Tuesday, although low-probability severe potential may exist during the period. In the wake of a dampening positive-tilt mid/upper trough near the Great Lakes on D4, an upstream shortwave trough digging over the northern Intermountain West should evolve into a cutoff low across the Southwest mid-week. A cold front slowing and then stalling along the western Gulf Coast to Lower MS Valley should be a focus for convection lingering from D3 into D4. Weakening of both deep-layer winds and forcing for ascent will be limiting factors to the severe-storm threat. Modified moisture return will eventually spread back towards the southern High Plains, in advance of the cutoff low. This suggests increasing thunder potential on D6/Thursday, along an inverted surface trough. Even with some ensemble members suggesting ejection of the cutoff low onto the central/southern Great Plains late in the period, the overall pattern appears unlikely to support greater than 15-percent severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX TO MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2 into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the IA/WI/IL area. The degree of instability is questionable, especially with north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley, as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively weaker instability. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX TO MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2 into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the IA/WI/IL area. The degree of instability is questionable, especially with north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley, as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively weaker instability. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX TO MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2 into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the IA/WI/IL area. The degree of instability is questionable, especially with north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley, as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively weaker instability. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX TO MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2 into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the IA/WI/IL area. The degree of instability is questionable, especially with north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley, as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively weaker instability. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX TO MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2 into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the IA/WI/IL area. The degree of instability is questionable, especially with north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley, as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively weaker instability. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into western north TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies. Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still, this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible. A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat. Convective development along the dryline near the central High Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise, some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE and north KS. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into western north TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies. Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still, this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible. A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat. Convective development along the dryline near the central High Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise, some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE and north KS. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into western north TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies. Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still, this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible. A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat. Convective development along the dryline near the central High Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise, some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE and north KS. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into western north TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies. Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still, this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible. A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat. Convective development along the dryline near the central High Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise, some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE and north KS. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more