Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor modifications. The thunder area over part of the central Plains and Midwest was trimmed behind the advancing cold front. The thunder line was also adjusted eastward over parts of western Lake Michigan. Across parts of the central Mississippi Valley, several multi-cell clusters are ongoing. The environment remains broadly favorable for occasional damaging winds with wet microbursts. The MRGL area was expanded slightly across parts of MO, IL and IN to better account for a few of these clusters as they track eastward. Similarly across parts of the southern Appalachians and western Carolinas, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the higher terrain of northern GA and western SC, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. The MRGL area was expanded slightly southwestward to better capture the risk for occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Otherwise the prior outlook remains valid, see the previous discussion. ..Marlow/Lyons.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. Read more

MD 2036 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 2036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Lower Michigan into extreme northeast Indiana and extreme northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301825Z - 302000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon across portions of eastern Lower Michigan and immediate surrounding areas. Severe gusts are the main concern, though a couple of tornadoes or instances of large hail also cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours pending favorable convective trends. DISCUSSION...Adequate insolation has supported surface temperatures reaching the mid 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, contributing to nearly 3000 J/kg SBCAPE (per 17Z mesoanalysis, and when modifying the 12Z DTX observed sounding). However, both the mesoanalysis and the modified sounding show MLCAPE under 500 J/kg with appreciable MLCINH remaining given some 850 mb dry-air advection from the southwest. Nonetheless, continued diurnal heating and the approach of a 500 mb trough and accompanying surface cold front will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity into the afternoon. The approach of the upper trough will encourage some strengthening/veering of tropospheric winds, resulting in 30 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated/curved hodographs. Multicells and line segments are the main storm modes expected, though a transient supercell is also possible. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes or instances of severe hail could also occur. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41468590 42578510 43358456 43798388 44058323 43958288 43228237 42698250 41958305 41508333 41328399 41268496 41298539 41468590 Read more