Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lane, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
further development of this system is possible over the next few
days and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system drifts generally eastward to
east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lane are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lane are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more