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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the Great Plains Day 3/Monday, before ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. As this trough shifts east, another strong mid-level trough is forecast to amplify while gradually shifting southward across the western U.S. Day 3/Monday through at least Day 6/Thursday. As this occurs, high pressure is forecast to build and strengthen across the Interior West, which will promote fire weather concerns across portions of California. Day 3/Monday: Southern California Elevated to at least locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be ongoing Day 3/Monday morning across the wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California with poor overnight RH recoveries and strong/gusty north to northeast winds. Fire weather conditions are forecast to continue into the afternoon before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds lower. Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern/Northern California: Potentially stronger, more widespread, and longer duration fire-weather conditions are possible by midweek across portions of California associated with the aforementioned secondary mid-level trough. On Day 5/Wednesday, dry and breezy conditions may occur across portions of northern California, though continued uncertainties regarding minimum RH reductions and fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall (exceeding 0.5" in some areas) precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Confidence in Critical fire weather conditions is greater further south across portions of Southern California, where strong/gusty winds are expected atop fuels that remain receptive from little-to-no recent rainfall. For this outlook cycle, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were maintained on Day 5/Wednesday and 40% probabilities for Critical were introduced Day 6/Thursday across the wind-prone mountains and valley areas of Southern California. Upgrades and refinements to the outlook area are probable over the next few days as guidance continues to come into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the Great Plains Day 3/Monday, before ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. As this trough shifts east, another strong mid-level trough is forecast to amplify while gradually shifting southward across the western U.S. Day 3/Monday through at least Day 6/Thursday. As this occurs, high pressure is forecast to build and strengthen across the Interior West, which will promote fire weather concerns across portions of California. Day 3/Monday: Southern California Elevated to at least locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be ongoing Day 3/Monday morning across the wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California with poor overnight RH recoveries and strong/gusty north to northeast winds. Fire weather conditions are forecast to continue into the afternoon before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds lower. Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern/Northern California: Potentially stronger, more widespread, and longer duration fire-weather conditions are possible by midweek across portions of California associated with the aforementioned secondary mid-level trough. On Day 5/Wednesday, dry and breezy conditions may occur across portions of northern California, though continued uncertainties regarding minimum RH reductions and fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall (exceeding 0.5" in some areas) precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Confidence in Critical fire weather conditions is greater further south across portions of Southern California, where strong/gusty winds are expected atop fuels that remain receptive from little-to-no recent rainfall. For this outlook cycle, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were maintained on Day 5/Wednesday and 40% probabilities for Critical were introduced Day 6/Thursday across the wind-prone mountains and valley areas of Southern California. Upgrades and refinements to the outlook area are probable over the next few days as guidance continues to come into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the Great Plains Day 3/Monday, before ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. As this trough shifts east, another strong mid-level trough is forecast to amplify while gradually shifting southward across the western U.S. Day 3/Monday through at least Day 6/Thursday. As this occurs, high pressure is forecast to build and strengthen across the Interior West, which will promote fire weather concerns across portions of California. Day 3/Monday: Southern California Elevated to at least locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be ongoing Day 3/Monday morning across the wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California with poor overnight RH recoveries and strong/gusty north to northeast winds. Fire weather conditions are forecast to continue into the afternoon before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds lower. Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern/Northern California: Potentially stronger, more widespread, and longer duration fire-weather conditions are possible by midweek across portions of California associated with the aforementioned secondary mid-level trough. On Day 5/Wednesday, dry and breezy conditions may occur across portions of northern California, though continued uncertainties regarding minimum RH reductions and fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall (exceeding 0.5" in some areas) precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Confidence in Critical fire weather conditions is greater further south across portions of Southern California, where strong/gusty winds are expected atop fuels that remain receptive from little-to-no recent rainfall. For this outlook cycle, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were maintained on Day 5/Wednesday and 40% probabilities for Critical were introduced Day 6/Thursday across the wind-prone mountains and valley areas of Southern California. Upgrades and refinements to the outlook area are probable over the next few days as guidance continues to come into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the Great Plains Day 3/Monday, before ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. As this trough shifts east, another strong mid-level trough is forecast to amplify while gradually shifting southward across the western U.S. Day 3/Monday through at least Day 6/Thursday. As this occurs, high pressure is forecast to build and strengthen across the Interior West, which will promote fire weather concerns across portions of California. Day 3/Monday: Southern California Elevated to at least locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be ongoing Day 3/Monday morning across the wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California with poor overnight RH recoveries and strong/gusty north to northeast winds. Fire weather conditions are forecast to continue into the afternoon before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds lower. Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern/Northern California: Potentially stronger, more widespread, and longer duration fire-weather conditions are possible by midweek across portions of California associated with the aforementioned secondary mid-level trough. On Day 5/Wednesday, dry and breezy conditions may occur across portions of northern California, though continued uncertainties regarding minimum RH reductions and fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall (exceeding 0.5" in some areas) precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Confidence in Critical fire weather conditions is greater further south across portions of Southern California, where strong/gusty winds are expected atop fuels that remain receptive from little-to-no recent rainfall. For this outlook cycle, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were maintained on Day 5/Wednesday and 40% probabilities for Critical were introduced Day 6/Thursday across the wind-prone mountains and valley areas of Southern California. Upgrades and refinements to the outlook area are probable over the next few days as guidance continues to come into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the Great Plains Day 3/Monday, before ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. As this trough shifts east, another strong mid-level trough is forecast to amplify while gradually shifting southward across the western U.S. Day 3/Monday through at least Day 6/Thursday. As this occurs, high pressure is forecast to build and strengthen across the Interior West, which will promote fire weather concerns across portions of California. Day 3/Monday: Southern California Elevated to at least locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be ongoing Day 3/Monday morning across the wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California with poor overnight RH recoveries and strong/gusty north to northeast winds. Fire weather conditions are forecast to continue into the afternoon before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds lower. Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern/Northern California: Potentially stronger, more widespread, and longer duration fire-weather conditions are possible by midweek across portions of California associated with the aforementioned secondary mid-level trough. On Day 5/Wednesday, dry and breezy conditions may occur across portions of northern California, though continued uncertainties regarding minimum RH reductions and fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall (exceeding 0.5" in some areas) precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Confidence in Critical fire weather conditions is greater further south across portions of Southern California, where strong/gusty winds are expected atop fuels that remain receptive from little-to-no recent rainfall. For this outlook cycle, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were maintained on Day 5/Wednesday and 40% probabilities for Critical were introduced Day 6/Thursday across the wind-prone mountains and valley areas of Southern California. Upgrades and refinements to the outlook area are probable over the next few days as guidance continues to come into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2182 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2182 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of west Texas into extreme southeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021824Z - 022000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. A WW issuance may be needed in the next couple of hours pending robust storm intensification. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening across the Permian Basin amid a destabilizing boundary layer, with NLDN data depicting lightning already occurring with the deeper updrafts. 17Z mesoanalysis shows some remaining MLCINH in place. However, surface temperatures are approaching 80 F in spots, amid 60 F dewpoints, yielding 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical wind profiles gradually veer from southeasterly at the surface, to southwesterly at 500 mb, with considerable strengthening with height noted in forecast soundings. Hodographs are relatively straight and elongated in the near-term, supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. However, strengthening low-level flow later this afternoon and evening will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and larger, curved low-level hodographs. As such, multicells and transient supercells should develop over the next couple of hours, though more sustained supercells may materialize by mid to late afternoon. The more intense, long-lived storms may produce severe gusts and large hail (with some stones potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Low-level shear may also become strong enough to support the risk for a couple of tornadoes later this afternoon into early evening, when hodographs enlarge. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31730415 32240395 32500357 32640296 32770210 32900140 32810099 32150078 31550141 31290224 31240294 31240347 31280390 31730415 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

MD 2181 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021752Z - 021945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts will be possible across southern OK heading into the afternoon hours as a line of T-storms continues to organize. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a weak line of convection across southwest OK has shown signs of increasing organization/intensity in the form of a consolidating/more balanced outflow and increasing VIL/VII values and lightning counts. Downstream, continued low-level theta-e advection into southern/central OK is promoting MLCAPE values up to around 500 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis estimates, and the KFDR VWP is sampling 0-3 km BWD values of around 30 knots with shear vectors oriented largely orthogonal to the line. These convective and environmental trends suggest that further intensification of the line is possible with an attendant increase in damaging wind potential in the coming hours. However, extensive cloud cover will likely modulate overall destabilization of an already spatially limited warm sector across southern OK, which should limit convective intensity. Trends will continue to be monitored, but this line is not expected to reach sufficient intensity to prompt a watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34369966 34519958 34769949 35029945 35149932 35369840 35449765 35309736 35129721 34869726 34589739 34309763 34109792 33999817 33959843 34199950 34219969 34369966 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... The large upper trough in the Southwest will continue its eastward progression into the southern Plains. With time, the trough will lift northeast and lose amplitude. A strong mid-level jet will eject into the southern Plains and mid-Missouri Valley during the late morning and afternoon. A surface low initially in western Oklahoma will begin to accelerate northeastward, reaching the Upper Midwest by Tuesday Morning. The focus for severe storms will along the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas, which will eventually be overtaken by a cold front, and the cold front extending from Kansas into the Midwest. ...Oklahoma/Texas... The current expectation is for strongly forced line of convection to be ongoing in western Oklahoma into western North Texas. Additional convection is also possible farther east into parts of the Ozarks within a broad area of warm advection. How the western convection evolves with time will be modulated by the eastern precipitation and eventual degree of surface-based destabilization. Surface heating will be key as mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor. Even without significant surface heating, a very moist airmass should support the continuation of the convective line into central/eastern Oklahoma. Guidance is consistent in showing a linear mode and shear vectors largely parallel to the boundary support this outcome. Very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will promote a risk for severe winds and QLCS tornadoes. Should greater surface heating occur, portions of eastern Oklahoma appear to be favorably positioned for a greater severe threat given the potential combination of destabilization and large-scale ascent. Portions of East Texas should observe greater surface heating. Deep-layer shear will be weaker, however. Severe wind gusts and line-embedded circulations will also be possible in these areas. ...Ozarks... Initial morning convection could pose a marginal severe threat. Weaker forcing and limited buoyancy should keep any threat isolated. The greater threat for severe weather will come with the line of convection along the cold front moving in from the west during the evening into parts of the overnight. Buoyancy will still be limited and decrease with eastward extent, but strong low-level and deep-layer wind fields will continue to support some risk for damaging winds and perhaps QLCS tornadoes. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more