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MD 2185 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Texas South Plains...Northwest Texas...and southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030130Z - 030400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Portions of the Texas South Plains, northwest Texas, and southwest Oklahoma are being monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm potential during the next few hours. It is still unclear if a watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Along and north of an outflow boundary extending from north-central TX into the southern Permian Basin, reduced convective development on the backside of an earlier midlevel wave is leading to gradual air mass recovery. During the next few hours, the low-level jet will ramp up across the region in response to ascent in the left exit region of a subtropical jet overspreading the area. The associated deep-layer ascent and low-level warm advection atop the cold pool will support another uptick in convective development over the next few hours. Enlarging hodographs (40-50 kt of effective shear) with ample low-level clockwise curvature will conditionally support semi-discrete supercell structures initially. If these storms can root at the surface, all hazards (including brief tornadoes) will be possible. With time, the strengthening ascent amid deep moisture and minimal inhibition should promote numerous regenerative thunderstorms, leading to uncertainty in the overall severe risk (given a mixed mode). However, the aforementioned shear profiles will still conditionally support embedded supercell structures, and the low-level jet could allow for upscale growth/cold pool organization with time. It is still unclear if the overall severe risk will warrant a watch, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Hart.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33860165 34449985 34799906 34809850 34619794 34069783 33409811 32659979 32440060 32410138 32640176 33500197 33860165 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible through tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Northwest TX into OK... Scattered clusters of rain and storms persist this evening from extreme southeast NM across the South Plains and into central OK. The large-scale instability gradient currently extends south of the aggregate outflow, roughly from Midland TX to Ardmore OK, with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE to the south. Given the persistent southerly flow regime through tonight, a moist and unstable air mass will likely spread north, with elevated instability increasing over currently rain-cooled areas from northwest TX into OK. In the near term, the greatest supercell threat will remain over the Permian Basin, in closer proximity to the most unstable air, with hail or brief tornado risk. With time, storms may tend to consolidate just north of the instability gradient, with an increasing low-level jet supporting locally damaging gusts. Ambient SRH over 200 m2/s2 may also favor embedded circulations at times, especially if the activity can consolidate into a squall line as indicated by some models. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible through tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Northwest TX into OK... Scattered clusters of rain and storms persist this evening from extreme southeast NM across the South Plains and into central OK. The large-scale instability gradient currently extends south of the aggregate outflow, roughly from Midland TX to Ardmore OK, with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE to the south. Given the persistent southerly flow regime through tonight, a moist and unstable air mass will likely spread north, with elevated instability increasing over currently rain-cooled areas from northwest TX into OK. In the near term, the greatest supercell threat will remain over the Permian Basin, in closer proximity to the most unstable air, with hail or brief tornado risk. With time, storms may tend to consolidate just north of the instability gradient, with an increasing low-level jet supporting locally damaging gusts. Ambient SRH over 200 m2/s2 may also favor embedded circulations at times, especially if the activity can consolidate into a squall line as indicated by some models. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible through tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Northwest TX into OK... Scattered clusters of rain and storms persist this evening from extreme southeast NM across the South Plains and into central OK. The large-scale instability gradient currently extends south of the aggregate outflow, roughly from Midland TX to Ardmore OK, with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE to the south. Given the persistent southerly flow regime through tonight, a moist and unstable air mass will likely spread north, with elevated instability increasing over currently rain-cooled areas from northwest TX into OK. In the near term, the greatest supercell threat will remain over the Permian Basin, in closer proximity to the most unstable air, with hail or brief tornado risk. With time, storms may tend to consolidate just north of the instability gradient, with an increasing low-level jet supporting locally damaging gusts. Ambient SRH over 200 m2/s2 may also favor embedded circulations at times, especially if the activity can consolidate into a squall line as indicated by some models. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible through tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Northwest TX into OK... Scattered clusters of rain and storms persist this evening from extreme southeast NM across the South Plains and into central OK. The large-scale instability gradient currently extends south of the aggregate outflow, roughly from Midland TX to Ardmore OK, with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE to the south. Given the persistent southerly flow regime through tonight, a moist and unstable air mass will likely spread north, with elevated instability increasing over currently rain-cooled areas from northwest TX into OK. In the near term, the greatest supercell threat will remain over the Permian Basin, in closer proximity to the most unstable air, with hail or brief tornado risk. With time, storms may tend to consolidate just north of the instability gradient, with an increasing low-level jet supporting locally damaging gusts. Ambient SRH over 200 m2/s2 may also favor embedded circulations at times, especially if the activity can consolidate into a squall line as indicated by some models. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible through tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Northwest TX into OK... Scattered clusters of rain and storms persist this evening from extreme southeast NM across the South Plains and into central OK. The large-scale instability gradient currently extends south of the aggregate outflow, roughly from Midland TX to Ardmore OK, with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE to the south. Given the persistent southerly flow regime through tonight, a moist and unstable air mass will likely spread north, with elevated instability increasing over currently rain-cooled areas from northwest TX into OK. In the near term, the greatest supercell threat will remain over the Permian Basin, in closer proximity to the most unstable air, with hail or brief tornado risk. With time, storms may tend to consolidate just north of the instability gradient, with an increasing low-level jet supporting locally damaging gusts. Ambient SRH over 200 m2/s2 may also favor embedded circulations at times, especially if the activity can consolidate into a squall line as indicated by some models. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024 Read more

WW 0698 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MRF TO 55 SSE CVS. ..WEINMAN..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-389-475-495-030140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0698 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MRF TO 55 SSE CVS. ..WEINMAN..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-389-475-495-030140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0698 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MRF TO 55 SSE CVS. ..WEINMAN..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-389-475-495-030140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 698 TORNADO NM TX 021930Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into the evening across the Permian Basin. A few supercells capable of large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) are expected. As the low-level winds strengthen late this afternoon into the early evening, a risk for a couple of tornadoes may develop with the more intense supercells to the south of and immediately near an outflow boundary draped from west to east across the area. Storms will likely grow upscale into one or more small clusters later this evening with severe wind and hail becoming the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Carlsbad NM to 40 miles northeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Smith Read more

MD 2184 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 698... FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into the southern Permian Basin Concerning...Tornado Watch 698... Valid 022333Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk remains confined to a small area in the northern portion of Tornado Watch 698. DISCUSSION...The threat of a brief tornado, large hail, and locally severe gusts generally remains confined to Lea, Andrews, and Gaines Counties within Tornado Watch 698. Here, backed surface winds (along the composite outflow boundary) beneath veering/strengthening winds with height are contributing to ample clockwise hodograph curvature (per nearby VWP data and mesoanalysis). This enhanced helicity and focused mesoscale ascent is favoring the maintenance of a discrete surface-based supercell capable of producing additional brief tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging gusts. A couple semi-discrete cells to the north of the outflow boundary will also pose a localized severe risk, mainly in the form of marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32530224 32320248 32270346 32630353 33130319 33110276 32860225 32530224 Read more

MD 2184 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 698... FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into the southern Permian Basin Concerning...Tornado Watch 698... Valid 022333Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk remains confined to a small area in the northern portion of Tornado Watch 698. DISCUSSION...The threat of a brief tornado, large hail, and locally severe gusts generally remains confined to Lea, Andrews, and Gaines Counties within Tornado Watch 698. Here, backed surface winds (along the composite outflow boundary) beneath veering/strengthening winds with height are contributing to ample clockwise hodograph curvature (per nearby VWP data and mesoanalysis). This enhanced helicity and focused mesoscale ascent is favoring the maintenance of a discrete surface-based supercell capable of producing additional brief tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging gusts. A couple semi-discrete cells to the north of the outflow boundary will also pose a localized severe risk, mainly in the form of marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32530224 32320248 32270346 32630353 33130319 33110276 32860225 32530224 Read more

WW 0698 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MRF TO 50 S CVS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184 ..WEINMAN..11/02/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-030040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-389-475-495-030040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 698 TORNADO NM TX 021930Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into the evening across the Permian Basin. A few supercells capable of large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) are expected. As the low-level winds strengthen late this afternoon into the early evening, a risk for a couple of tornadoes may develop with the more intense supercells to the south of and immediately near an outflow boundary draped from west to east across the area. Storms will likely grow upscale into one or more small clusters later this evening with severe wind and hail becoming the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Carlsbad NM to 40 miles northeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 2 22:44:18 UTC 2024.

WW 0698 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 698 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..11/02/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-022340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-389-475-495-022340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2183 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 698... FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of west Texas into extreme southeastern New Mexico Concerning...Tornado Watch 698... Valid 022055Z - 022230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 698. Severe hail and wind appear to be the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes may still occur. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are in progress across extreme southeastern NM, with additional storms attempting to strengthen in far western TX near convective outflow remnant from an earlier squall line. MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that severe hail may be falling with some of the more mature supercells, and a couple of stones may be approaching 2 inches in diameter. These storms are maximizing in intensity along a stalled convective outflow boundary, which is where the greatest threat for severe storms (including a tornado or two) remains. Farther south into the warm sector, the initiation of robust storms remains uncertain. Here, ample buoyancy remains in place, but visible satellite shows a stagnant, or potentially decaying cumulus field. Still, the severe threat should persist near the outflow boundary, where lift is strongest for supporting further storm development and potential upscale growth into a squall line later this evening. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32560442 32990359 33150261 32820148 32260134 31800175 31650270 31690349 31890414 32560442 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 20:37:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 21:28:26 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 200 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Satellite imagery depicts that Lane has been struggling the last several hours, and appears more disorganized. The overall convective canopy has deteriorated with warming cloud tops. Southwesterly shear is starting to increase based on the latest visible images, and the low-level center is located on the southwest edge of the convection. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have remained steady throughout the day around 35 to 45 kt. Given the current satellite presentation and using a blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Lane continues to move generally westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, with a slight nudge to the left. Some intensity fluctuations are possible through today, though southwesterly shear is starting to increase over the system. This shear combined with a drier airmass along the forecast track will lead to a steady weakening trend beginning on Sunday. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in about 36 h, although given the small size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 11.2N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 11.4N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 022035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY