Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE GRR TO 20 NNE LAN TO 30 E HTL. ..MOORE..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC011-017-023-025-045-049-059-063-065-075-087-091-093-099-115- 125-145-147-151-155-157-161-163-302240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARENAC BAY BRANCH CALHOUN EATON GENESEE HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464- 302240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER Read more

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0665 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 30 20:16:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 30 20:16:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2035 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Areas affected...much of central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301809Z - 302015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage from northern into central North Carolina, with isolated damaging gusts possible. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible imagery show a cold front extending from parts of western VA into northern/northeastern NC. A moist and unstable air mass exists south of this front with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, although midlevel lapse rates are poor and below 6.0 C/km. Storms are already forming along the front, as well as north of the wind shift into southern VA. As heating continues, steepening low-level lapse rates along with ample precipitable water will support locally strong downdrafts. Although winds aloft/shear are weak, clustering of storms near the front may result in a few southward-propagating clusters as outflows merge, yielding areas of strong or locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 35138022 35448072 35808083 36168070 36438023 36537969 36517930 36297882 36117830 36047775 36117699 36267651 36177618 36057602 35547588 35227639 34977666 34867692 34757786 34967950 35138022 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend isolated dry thunderstorm chances further westward in southern Nevada in agreement with latest guidance. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more