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MD 2186 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699... FOR FAR NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...Far Northwest TX...Southern/Central/East-Central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699... Valid 030637Z - 030830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards, including a tornado or two, will continue from far northwest Texas across southern and central Oklahoma. Convective trends are being monitored across east-central Oklahoma for potential watch issuance later tonight. DISCUSSION...A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues from far northwest TX into much of western and central OK. The strongest storms thus far have been confined to the warm sector that exists to the east of the more coherent convective line extending from southwest OK into southwest TX and to the south of a warm front that extends from roughly southern Kiowa County northeastward through Cleveland County before turning more eastward in Muskogee County. This warm front demarcates the more rain-cooled air to the north, where temperatures in the low to mid 60s, from the warmer, more modified air to the south, where temperatures are in the upper 60s/low 70s. Widespread rainfall is expected to continue reinforcing this boundary, with very minimal northward progression anticipated over the next several hours. Thunderstorm development will likely continue within this warm sector, initiated by persistent warm-air advection and supported by 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Moderate to strong vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt) will persist across the warm sector as well, supporting supercell development with any discrete updrafts that are able to mature. Despite poor lapse rates, vertical shear is still strong enough to support large hail and strong downdrafts. Additionally, recent TLX VAD data sampled more than enough low-level curvature to support tornadogenesis, with the area along the warm front likely a local maximum in tornado potential due to increased low-level vorticity. Primary factor limiting a greater tornado risk is potential for storm interaction. Some severe threat may extend into more of east-central OK later tonight. Currently the airmass over this region is less buoyant, and updrafts have not been able to mature. However, some increase in buoyancy is possible and convective trends being monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 34829942 35699698 35849509 34339539 33189951 34829942 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear should preclude an organized severe threat. A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday morning. ...Great Lakes... A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional, low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI. Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

WW 0700 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0700 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0700 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0700 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more