Aggregator

WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0666 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Mahoney

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across portions of southern/eastern Nevada into far southwest Utah. A modest monsoonal moisture plume has been slowly spreading northwestward from southern/central AZ into southern NV over the past 12 hours per GOES water-vapor and PWAT imagery. Increasing mid-level moisture has also been noted in recent VEF soundings with PWAT values increasing to 0.85 inches as recently as 00 UTC Saturday. This moisture, combined with cool mid-level temperatures, will support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation overspreads the southern Great Basin. Slow storm motions around 10 knots should promote very narrow swaths of rainfall, but very dry boundary layer conditions (similar in nature to the 00 UTC VEF sounding) will likely be in place by peak heating and should promote limited rain accumulation away from the primary downdraft cores. While thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly isolated, dry lightning strikes are likely with any storm that can develop and will pose a fire weather concern considering ERCs are at or above the 80th percentile. Elsewhere, very dry conditions will persist across the remainder of the Great Basin with afternoon RH values in the single digits to teens. Surface gradient winds are forecast to generally remain below 15 mph for most locations, which limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. The general consensus among recent high-res guidance is that the strongest winds will likely be associated with thunderstorm outflows across southern NV/southwest UT and into central AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across portions of southern/eastern Nevada into far southwest Utah. A modest monsoonal moisture plume has been slowly spreading northwestward from southern/central AZ into southern NV over the past 12 hours per GOES water-vapor and PWAT imagery. Increasing mid-level moisture has also been noted in recent VEF soundings with PWAT values increasing to 0.85 inches as recently as 00 UTC Saturday. This moisture, combined with cool mid-level temperatures, will support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation overspreads the southern Great Basin. Slow storm motions around 10 knots should promote very narrow swaths of rainfall, but very dry boundary layer conditions (similar in nature to the 00 UTC VEF sounding) will likely be in place by peak heating and should promote limited rain accumulation away from the primary downdraft cores. While thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly isolated, dry lightning strikes are likely with any storm that can develop and will pose a fire weather concern considering ERCs are at or above the 80th percentile. Elsewhere, very dry conditions will persist across the remainder of the Great Basin with afternoon RH values in the single digits to teens. Surface gradient winds are forecast to generally remain below 15 mph for most locations, which limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. The general consensus among recent high-res guidance is that the strongest winds will likely be associated with thunderstorm outflows across southern NV/southwest UT and into central AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across portions of southern/eastern Nevada into far southwest Utah. A modest monsoonal moisture plume has been slowly spreading northwestward from southern/central AZ into southern NV over the past 12 hours per GOES water-vapor and PWAT imagery. Increasing mid-level moisture has also been noted in recent VEF soundings with PWAT values increasing to 0.85 inches as recently as 00 UTC Saturday. This moisture, combined with cool mid-level temperatures, will support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation overspreads the southern Great Basin. Slow storm motions around 10 knots should promote very narrow swaths of rainfall, but very dry boundary layer conditions (similar in nature to the 00 UTC VEF sounding) will likely be in place by peak heating and should promote limited rain accumulation away from the primary downdraft cores. While thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly isolated, dry lightning strikes are likely with any storm that can develop and will pose a fire weather concern considering ERCs are at or above the 80th percentile. Elsewhere, very dry conditions will persist across the remainder of the Great Basin with afternoon RH values in the single digits to teens. Surface gradient winds are forecast to generally remain below 15 mph for most locations, which limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. The general consensus among recent high-res guidance is that the strongest winds will likely be associated with thunderstorm outflows across southern NV/southwest UT and into central AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across portions of southern/eastern Nevada into far southwest Utah. A modest monsoonal moisture plume has been slowly spreading northwestward from southern/central AZ into southern NV over the past 12 hours per GOES water-vapor and PWAT imagery. Increasing mid-level moisture has also been noted in recent VEF soundings with PWAT values increasing to 0.85 inches as recently as 00 UTC Saturday. This moisture, combined with cool mid-level temperatures, will support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation overspreads the southern Great Basin. Slow storm motions around 10 knots should promote very narrow swaths of rainfall, but very dry boundary layer conditions (similar in nature to the 00 UTC VEF sounding) will likely be in place by peak heating and should promote limited rain accumulation away from the primary downdraft cores. While thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly isolated, dry lightning strikes are likely with any storm that can develop and will pose a fire weather concern considering ERCs are at or above the 80th percentile. Elsewhere, very dry conditions will persist across the remainder of the Great Basin with afternoon RH values in the single digits to teens. Surface gradient winds are forecast to generally remain below 15 mph for most locations, which limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. The general consensus among recent high-res guidance is that the strongest winds will likely be associated with thunderstorm outflows across southern NV/southwest UT and into central AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across portions of southern/eastern Nevada into far southwest Utah. A modest monsoonal moisture plume has been slowly spreading northwestward from southern/central AZ into southern NV over the past 12 hours per GOES water-vapor and PWAT imagery. Increasing mid-level moisture has also been noted in recent VEF soundings with PWAT values increasing to 0.85 inches as recently as 00 UTC Saturday. This moisture, combined with cool mid-level temperatures, will support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation overspreads the southern Great Basin. Slow storm motions around 10 knots should promote very narrow swaths of rainfall, but very dry boundary layer conditions (similar in nature to the 00 UTC VEF sounding) will likely be in place by peak heating and should promote limited rain accumulation away from the primary downdraft cores. While thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly isolated, dry lightning strikes are likely with any storm that can develop and will pose a fire weather concern considering ERCs are at or above the 80th percentile. Elsewhere, very dry conditions will persist across the remainder of the Great Basin with afternoon RH values in the single digits to teens. Surface gradient winds are forecast to generally remain below 15 mph for most locations, which limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. The general consensus among recent high-res guidance is that the strongest winds will likely be associated with thunderstorm outflows across southern NV/southwest UT and into central AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across portions of southern/eastern Nevada into far southwest Utah. A modest monsoonal moisture plume has been slowly spreading northwestward from southern/central AZ into southern NV over the past 12 hours per GOES water-vapor and PWAT imagery. Increasing mid-level moisture has also been noted in recent VEF soundings with PWAT values increasing to 0.85 inches as recently as 00 UTC Saturday. This moisture, combined with cool mid-level temperatures, will support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation overspreads the southern Great Basin. Slow storm motions around 10 knots should promote very narrow swaths of rainfall, but very dry boundary layer conditions (similar in nature to the 00 UTC VEF sounding) will likely be in place by peak heating and should promote limited rain accumulation away from the primary downdraft cores. While thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly isolated, dry lightning strikes are likely with any storm that can develop and will pose a fire weather concern considering ERCs are at or above the 80th percentile. Elsewhere, very dry conditions will persist across the remainder of the Great Basin with afternoon RH values in the single digits to teens. Surface gradient winds are forecast to generally remain below 15 mph for most locations, which limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. The general consensus among recent high-res guidance is that the strongest winds will likely be associated with thunderstorm outflows across southern NV/southwest UT and into central AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more