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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 701 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191 ..MOORE..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC031-033-065-075-141-032040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COMANCHE COTTON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN TXC009-023-049-059-077-083-133-155-197-207-237-253-275-337-363- 399-417-429-441-447-485-487-497-503-032040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN EASTLAND FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL JACK JONES KNOX MONTAGUE PALO PINTO RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Gulf Coast states into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A few storms could also occur across parts of the Great Lakes region. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will de-amplify and move quickly northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Sabine River and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, but the airmass will likely remain stable along most of the front throughout the day. The only exception could be in far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana where weak instability is expected. In that area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will likely be insufficient for severe convection. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Gulf Coast states into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A few storms could also occur across parts of the Great Lakes region. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will de-amplify and move quickly northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Sabine River and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, but the airmass will likely remain stable along most of the front throughout the day. The only exception could be in far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana where weak instability is expected. In that area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will likely be insufficient for severe convection. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Gulf Coast states into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A few storms could also occur across parts of the Great Lakes region. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will de-amplify and move quickly northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Sabine River and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, but the airmass will likely remain stable along most of the front throughout the day. The only exception could be in far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana where weak instability is expected. In that area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will likely be insufficient for severe convection. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Gulf Coast states into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A few storms could also occur across parts of the Great Lakes region. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will de-amplify and move quickly northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Sabine River and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, but the airmass will likely remain stable along most of the front throughout the day. The only exception could be in far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana where weak instability is expected. In that area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will likely be insufficient for severe convection. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Gulf Coast states into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A few storms could also occur across parts of the Great Lakes region. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will de-amplify and move quickly northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Sabine River and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, but the airmass will likely remain stable along most of the front throughout the day. The only exception could be in far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana where weak instability is expected. In that area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will likely be insufficient for severe convection. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Gulf Coast states into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A few storms could also occur across parts of the Great Lakes region. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will de-amplify and move quickly northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Sabine River and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, but the airmass will likely remain stable along most of the front throughout the day. The only exception could be in far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana where weak instability is expected. In that area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will likely be insufficient for severe convection. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Gulf Coast states into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A few storms could also occur across parts of the Great Lakes region. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will de-amplify and move quickly northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Sabine River and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, but the airmass will likely remain stable along most of the front throughout the day. The only exception could be in far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana where weak instability is expected. In that area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will likely be insufficient for severe convection. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2024 Read more