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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2192 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern oklahoma and northern TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031949Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms moving into/developing in a strongly sheared air mass over parts of OK/TX may pose an increasing risk of tornadoes. A new Tornado Watch is likely needed. DISCUSSION...A robust cluster of storms is organizing west of a strongly sheared and destabilizing air mass across parts of southern OK and western North TX. While predominately linear, these storms are moving into a modified warm frontal zone with strong low-level effective helicity (0-1 km >350 ms2/s2 from the TLX VAD) sufficient for tornadoes. Diffuse heating and subtle confluence are also apparent ahead of the QLCS across western north TX. Hi-res guidance and observational trends suggests additional, more discrete, storms may develop/mature this afternoon. With moderate buoyancy and large-low level hodograph curvature, supercells and QLCS mesovorticies with the potential for tornadoes could materialize. A Tornado watch is likely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35229824 35549777 35699693 35779631 35569547 35409513 34709487 34569494 34189520 33679616 33539672 33499722 33739773 34249832 35229824 Read more

MD 2191 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 701... FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2191 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...western North Texas and southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 701... Valid 031913Z - 032045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 701 continues. SUMMARY...Severe storms continue to organize early this afternoon. The risk for damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two should increase as storms grow upscale. DISCUSSION...Across WW701, intermittent heating amidst strong low-level warm air advection has resulted in several clusters of strong to severe storms across portions of western North TX. Within an unstable and moderately sheared environment, further intensification/development of new storms is expected this afternoon and evening across portions of northwest TX and southwest OK. Storm mode has been mixed with predominately linear elements near I-20 and a few more cellular structures farther north. Hi-res guidance suggests the additional storms that develop will prompt upscale growth into one or more linear clusters or a QLCS with time. Storms should spread over much of western North TX and into southwestern Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening. The potential for numerous storm interactions and upscale growth suggests the primary severe risk over the next few hours will be wind and hail. However, shear profiles are strong enough to support supercells, and some guidance does show more discrete development is possible ahead of the primary band of storms. Should this occur, a risk for a few tornadoes could materialize near the warm front where low-level hodograph curvature is maximized. ..Lyons.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 32320030 33929998 34879942 35239900 34959807 34589782 33899756 33119750 32609813 31969900 31929907 31920010 32320030 Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0702 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0702 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ...TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. Read more