Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern on Sunday across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the northern CA coast. This feature is expected to begin moving onshore Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Broadscale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread northern CA/southern OR and the northern Great Basin, resulting in slightly stronger surface winds compared to previous days (though generally at or below 15 mph) and isolated thunderstorm chances. Forecast soundings from across the region suggest buoyancy will be adequate for convection on the northern fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume, but mixed-layer LCLs between 3 to 3.5 km (indicative of a deep, dry boundary-layer) will promote little rain accumulation. As such, dry lightning appears likely and will pose a fire weather threat given regional ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentiles. Stronger forcing for ascent may result in higher thunderstorm coverage across the Great Basin compared to previous days, and recent CAM solutions hint that central to northeast NV may see the greatest potential for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

MD 2039 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 2039 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Ohio...southwest Pennsylvania...northern/central West Virginia...far western Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311639Z - 311845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Development of scattered thunderstorms is possible ahead of the cold front. Wind damage will be the main hazard this afternoon. A watch is possible depending on trends in convective intensity. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front, some areas have already heated up into the mid/upper 80s F. Morning observed soundings from across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity show very weak mid-level lapse rates. This should act to limit overall buoyancy despite the warming temperatures and moderately moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Further, developing thunderstorms will take time to intensify in such an environment. With very broad, low amplitude troughing across the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, deep-layer shear will also be relatively modest as well. The primary risk with storms this afternoon will be damaging winds as low-level lapse rates should be steep by the afternoon. This will especially be true if/where clustering of cold pools can occur. ..Wendt/Bunting.. 08/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38328244 39068234 39558184 40248119 40978027 40947915 40277875 39027940 38188090 38068225 38328244 Read more

WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0666 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0666 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts still appear possible from southern New England into the southern Appalachians on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the northeastern U.S. as an upper ridge builds across the Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface cold front accompanying the eastern upper trough will sweep across much of the central, northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the period, serving as a lifting mechanism for at least scattered thunderstorms from New England down to the Southern Plains. The best chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be from southern New England into the central Appalachians, where modest mid-level flow will overspread a mixing boundary layer by afternoon. ...Southern New England into the central Appalachians... At least scattered clusters of thunderstorms should develop ahead of the cold front from southern New England into the central Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, when convective temperatures in the mid 80s F are reached. With surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to just over 70 F, MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg in most spots, with parts of the Carolinas seeing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear is expected to lag the surface cold front, with effective bulk shear values likely remaining under 30 kts over most locales. As such, pulse-cellular and perhaps briefly multicellular convection will be the dominant storm modes. Given a heated, mixed boundary layer, storms from southern New England into the central Appalachians may produce a few strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024 Read more