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WW 702 TORNADO OK TX 032005Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of intense thunderstorms over southwest OK and northwest TX will track rapidly northeastward this afternoon across the watch area. Strong low-level shear will support a risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts with these storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Fort Sill OK to 45 miles southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 701... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 2196 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 702... FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 702... Valid 032252Z - 040115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes persists across the watch area, with perhaps a greater risk across the Red River Valley. DISCUSSION...A large mass of rain and thunderstorms currently extends form south-central OK into northern TX, oriented southwest to northeast and primarily north of the outflow boundary/stationary front. While favorable shear exists north of the boundary, cooler temperatures are mitigating the overall threat at this time. Farther south into TX, a very moist air mass is in place with PWAT ranging from 1.50 to 2.00" into northeast TX. Given continued southerly low-level flow, this warm advection regime will persist across the stationary front, which eventually may return north later this evening. At this time, storms have shown a disorganized structure in terms of severe threat. However, the most favorable zone in a relative sense is across the Red River Valley and surrounding counties, as the ongoing activity translates east. Storm cores along the theta-e gradient may pose a risk of damaging winds with the bowing structures. Additional single-cells cannot be ruled out forming ahead of the main band of storms, as the air mass is uncapped. A brief tornado threat could occur with any activity interacting with the boundary. If the front begins moving north, then storms may acquire rotation along it over a longer period of time. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33409790 34499659 34829601 34869544 34679482 34429460 33729451 33419479 33399579 33239692 32969763 32989806 33409790 Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 702 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW SPS TO 35 WSW ADM TO 10 SSW ADM TO 45 W MLC TO 40 W MKO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196 ..THORNTON..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 702 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-023-029-063-069-077-085-091-095-121-123-127-040040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-277-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON LAMAR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 702 TORNADO OK TX 032005Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of intense thunderstorms over southwest OK and northwest TX will track rapidly northeastward this afternoon across the watch area. Strong low-level shear will support a risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts with these storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Fort Sill OK to 45 miles southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 701... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 3 22:46:17 UTC 2024.

MD 2193 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032040Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the late afternoon and evening hours. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected and will pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Trends will be monitored for the need for a watch later this evening. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection has increased in coverage across western OK along the I-40 corridor in response to strengthening low-level warm advection and steady destabilization. MRMS VII and cloud top temperature trends suggest that much of the activity along and north of I-40 remains sub-severe, but signs of intensification have been noted in a few cells. The expectation is thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase as this activity spreads from western OK into northwest OK and south-central KS through the late afternoon and evening hours. While most convection will likely remain elevated, steady warming/moistening in the low levels may support a few surface based storms - especially where temperatures and dewpoints can reach into the low 70s and upper 60s respectively. 40-60 knot mid and upper-level flow over the region is supporting elongated hodographs favorable for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail (most likely between 1.0-1.75 inches) and severe wind gusts. Additionally, the low-level warm advection regime is yielding 0-1 km SRH values between 200-300 m2/s2 (per regional VWPs), which will support a tornado threat if surface-based convection can be realized. While this potential is noted, weak inhibition and persistent ascent will promote scattered thunderstorms with a somewhat high probability for storm interactions and unfavorable storm modes as storms spread north/northeast with time. Trends will be monitored for the need for watch issuance if semi-discrete, surface-based convection can be realized and pose a greater severe threat. ..Moore/Hart.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 35839987 36069983 37699922 37949889 37999855 37809763 37329671 37059659 36699672 36379694 35989720 35779767 35619840 35489951 35589987 35839987 Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 702 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SPS TO 35 WNW ADM TO 25 N OKC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 702 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-027-029-049-063-067-069-077-081-085-087-091- 095-099-107-109-121-123-125-127-133-032340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LINCOLN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE TXC097-147-181-277-032340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON LAMAR Read more

MD 2195 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 702... FOR PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AN NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma an North Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 702... Valid 032119Z - 032215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues. SUMMARY...A mature bowing segment and isolated leading storm will pose an increased risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Across southern portions of Tornado Watch 70s, a mature bowing segment has maintained organization as it tracks along the Red River Valley in southern OK and north TX. The environment ahead of this convection remains unstable and strongly sheared suggesting a continued severe threat. Low-level shear is expected to increase as the bow approaches the modified outflow boundary/warm front in southern OK. More isolated convection has also slowly deepened ahead of the bow across parts of Carter and Love Counties in OK. There remains the potential for a supercell or two to evolve and strengthen within the strongly sheared air mass. Along with the risk for damaging winds (some 70+ mph), a few tornadoes are possible, both from embedded circulations and with any supercells able to become established. ..Lyons.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34179807 34399761 34639700 34709653 34719612 34599596 34439587 34099593 33939593 33769605 33619632 33539686 33509722 33469766 33489783 33559793 34179807 Read more

MD 2194 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 702... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 702... Valid 032055Z - 032200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues. SUMMARY...A maturing line of storms may pose a heightened threat for severe winds and a few tornadoes over the next 1-2 hours as it approaches I-35. DISCUSSION...As of 2050 UTC, KFDR and KTLX radar imagery showed a maturing thunderstorm cluster has become better organized over the last 30 minutes as it has moved across southwestern OK. Emerging from an initial group of several independent supercells, the storm mode has trended towards a bowing/line segment over time. This trend will likely continue as it tracks along and near the stalled frontal zone over central OK. Radar velocity measurements have shown periodic strong outflow surges with embedded mesovorticies. Large low-level streamwise vorticity and strong 0-3 km line-normal shear evident on the TLX VAD hodograph will continue to favor a balanced QLCS mode as convection approaches the I-35 corridor in the next 60-90 minutes. Given the strong shear, linear mode, and potential for mature mesovorticies, damaging winds (some 70+ mph) a few embedded tornadoes are likely in central OK in the next 1-2 hours. ..Lyons.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 35719715 35609697 35279687 34959689 34849707 34669760 34579864 35309857 35639784 35729740 35719715 Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W ABI TO 20 S SPS TO 25 SSE FSI TO 30 NNE CSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 ..MOORE..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-077-083-133-237-253-337-363-399-417-429-441-447-497- 503-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN EASTLAND JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W ABI TO 20 S SPS TO 25 SSE FSI TO 30 NNE CSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 ..MOORE..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-077-083-133-237-253-337-363-399-417-429-441-447-497- 503-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN EASTLAND JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W ABI TO 20 S SPS TO 25 SSE FSI TO 30 NNE CSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 ..MOORE..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-077-083-133-237-253-337-363-399-417-429-441-447-497- 503-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN EASTLAND JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W ABI TO 20 S SPS TO 25 SSE FSI TO 30 NNE CSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 ..MOORE..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-077-083-133-237-253-337-363-399-417-429-441-447-497- 503-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN EASTLAND JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W ABI TO 20 S SPS TO 25 SSE FSI TO 30 NNE CSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 ..MOORE..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-077-083-133-237-253-337-363-399-417-429-441-447-497- 503-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN EASTLAND JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 701 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 031750Z - 032300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1150 AM until 500 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over northwest TX, in a moist and unstable environment. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds, with an increasing risk of a tornado or two by late afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south of Abilene TX to 5 miles north northwest of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ABI TO 45 SW SPS TO 10 ESE LTS TO 50 W CSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191 ..MOORE..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-031-033-055-075-141-149-032140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM COMANCHE COTTON GREER KIOWA TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-049-059-077-083-133-237-253-337-363-399-417-429-441-447- 485-497-503-032140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN EASTLAND JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WISE YOUNG Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A mid-level trough will rapidly deepen across the Interior west by mid-week, encouraging surface high pressure to build west of the Rockies. The mid-level trough will then meander over the Inter-mountain west through the remainder of the week, before ejecting into the Plains states, encouraging cyclone development and associated precipitation chances over the Plains/Mississippi Valley. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most of the CONUS for the extended period. The one major exception will be California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday), a surface pressure gradient will become aligned across the state, encouraging downslope northerly flow over the California Valley regions, and offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Despite breezy conditions expected over portions of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley areas, questions remain regarding the receptiveness of fuels given recent precipitation, with medium-range guidance also showing quite a bit of variability regarding how low RH will get by afternoon peak heating. While no Critical probabilities have been introduced for the Days 3-5 period in northern California, Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 time frame. A clearer signal for wildfire-spread conditions appears evident in the medium-range guidance consensus over southern California late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. 25+ mph sustained offshore flow (with higher gusts in terrain-favoring areas) should coincide with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting Critical probabilities. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added to portions of the Ventura Valley region for Wednesday evening, where/when confidence is highest for sustained Critical conditions for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more