Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...parts of the South Plains...northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 040537Z - 040800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form after 06Z tonight over parts of west/northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma. Hail will be the primary risk. DISCUSSION...Height falls will persist tonight with the upper trough, while low pressure develops over western TX and into western OK through early morning. In response, low-level winds will increase out of the south, resulting in a northward return of theta-e and subsequent destabilization. Currently, modest moistening is occurring over parts of the Permian Basin, though GPS water vapor sensors show only minor increases in PWAT. However, this should evolve rapidly tonight as wind speeds increase. Given cool temperatures aloft, this warm/moist advection will likely yield a zone of thunderstorms developing from the South Plains into southwest Oklahoma late. Initial activity may not be severe, but as moisture accelerates northwestward overnight, severe hail is expected. Both cold air aloft, and lengthening hodographs with 60-70 kt deep-layer shear will favor hail. As such, trends will be monitored over the coming hours for a possible watch. ..Jewell/Smith.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34749902 34199929 33489990 32390162 32540214 33280203 34120132 34750040 34989975 34969917 34749902 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. ...FL Keys... NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys. Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night. ...Southeast... General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY, and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL. Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. ...FL Keys... NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys. Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night. ...Southeast... General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY, and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL. Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. ...FL Keys... NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys. Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night. ...Southeast... General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY, and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL. Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. ...FL Keys... NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys. Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night. ...Southeast... General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY, and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL. Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. ...FL Keys... NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys. Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night. ...Southeast... General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY, and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL. Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. ...FL Keys... NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys. Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night. ...Southeast... General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY, and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL. Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SABINE TO LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Some of this activity might produce small hail along the TX Gulf Coast portion where the surface front will likely shift off the coast by mid-morning. Farther northeast, adequate low-level shear should be maintained through at least midday, yielding potential for rotating convection. But mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, and large-scale ascent will be pulling away from the region through the day. Some convective redevelopment is possible along the front/residual outflows midday into the afternoon. Locally strong gusts and a brief tornado will be possible during the first half of the period. Low to deep-layer shear magnitudes are expected to diminish from south to north during the evening. Across the FL Keys, based on latest NHC track/intensity forecast for PTC 18 along with 00Z guidance, tornado potential is expected to remain negligible through 12Z Wednesday. ...Central/southern WI... A conditional, low-probability setup from low-topped convection is evident from about midday to mid-afternoon Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone around 995 mb should track northeast from IA to central WI. Some models suggest a mesoscale-focused corridor of modest diabatic surface heating may overlap the northwest periphery of mid to upper 50s dew points. This could yield scant surface-based buoyancy immediately ahead of the cyclone. However, this heating may occur once low-level winds begin to veer, yielding low confidence in whether enlarged hodographs will overlap the meager instability. Still, with most 00Z CAMs indicating discrete convection, low-probability tornado/wind highlights appear warranted. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SABINE TO LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Some of this activity might produce small hail along the TX Gulf Coast portion where the surface front will likely shift off the coast by mid-morning. Farther northeast, adequate low-level shear should be maintained through at least midday, yielding potential for rotating convection. But mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, and large-scale ascent will be pulling away from the region through the day. Some convective redevelopment is possible along the front/residual outflows midday into the afternoon. Locally strong gusts and a brief tornado will be possible during the first half of the period. Low to deep-layer shear magnitudes are expected to diminish from south to north during the evening. Across the FL Keys, based on latest NHC track/intensity forecast for PTC 18 along with 00Z guidance, tornado potential is expected to remain negligible through 12Z Wednesday. ...Central/southern WI... A conditional, low-probability setup from low-topped convection is evident from about midday to mid-afternoon Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone around 995 mb should track northeast from IA to central WI. Some models suggest a mesoscale-focused corridor of modest diabatic surface heating may overlap the northwest periphery of mid to upper 50s dew points. This could yield scant surface-based buoyancy immediately ahead of the cyclone. However, this heating may occur once low-level winds begin to veer, yielding low confidence in whether enlarged hodographs will overlap the meager instability. Still, with most 00Z CAMs indicating discrete convection, low-probability tornado/wind highlights appear warranted. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SABINE TO LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Some of this activity might produce small hail along the TX Gulf Coast portion where the surface front will likely shift off the coast by mid-morning. Farther northeast, adequate low-level shear should be maintained through at least midday, yielding potential for rotating convection. But mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, and large-scale ascent will be pulling away from the region through the day. Some convective redevelopment is possible along the front/residual outflows midday into the afternoon. Locally strong gusts and a brief tornado will be possible during the first half of the period. Low to deep-layer shear magnitudes are expected to diminish from south to north during the evening. Across the FL Keys, based on latest NHC track/intensity forecast for PTC 18 along with 00Z guidance, tornado potential is expected to remain negligible through 12Z Wednesday. ...Central/southern WI... A conditional, low-probability setup from low-topped convection is evident from about midday to mid-afternoon Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone around 995 mb should track northeast from IA to central WI. Some models suggest a mesoscale-focused corridor of modest diabatic surface heating may overlap the northwest periphery of mid to upper 50s dew points. This could yield scant surface-based buoyancy immediately ahead of the cyclone. However, this heating may occur once low-level winds begin to veer, yielding low confidence in whether enlarged hodographs will overlap the meager instability. Still, with most 00Z CAMs indicating discrete convection, low-probability tornado/wind highlights appear warranted. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more