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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 4 16:18:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern Oklahoma and north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041437Z - 041700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe/tornado threat is likely to increase by late morning. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is present from north Texas to much of eastern Oklahoma with dewpoints in the upper 60s. This has already yielded 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal surface heating. Given the minimal inhibition (per SPC mesoanalysis and regional 12Z RAOBs), expect widespread thunderstorm development by late morning to early afternoon. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of all hazards. Parts of central and south-central Oklahoma (near the I-35 corridor) have the greatest uncertainty. Outflow from this mornings storms has advanced east of I-35 with low 60s dewpoints and northerly/westerly flow. However, strong, southerly flow is trying to stall this boundary and lead to northward/westward airmass recovery within this corridor. A tornado watch will eventually be needed, but it is unclear whether the threat will start to increase in the next 1 to 2 hours or closer to mid-day when the primary ascent overspreads the region. Trends will be monitored and a watch will be issued when an organized severe threat appears imminent. ..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33889847 34679833 35399776 36279652 36399579 36329531 35929498 34839505 34099554 33789591 33519652 33349771 33369825 33489886 33889847 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more