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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SEP TO 15 ESE GYI TO 20 WNW JLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207 ..MOORE..11/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-021-023-041-061-077-079-089-091-101-115-121-127-135- 042240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA CHEROKEE CHOCTAW DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-113-119-139-147-159-223-231-251-257-277-379-387-397-449- 467-499-042240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DELTA ELLIS FANNIN FRANKLIN HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR RAINS Read more

MD 2206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE TEXARKANA REGION INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...The Texarkana region into western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041926Z - 042130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe/tornado threat appears to be gradually increasing from the Texarkana region into western Arkansas. Watch issuance is expected for western AR, but timing remains uncertain due to questions regarding short-term storm coverage across the Texarkana region. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery out of KFSM and KSHV has shown a few deeper/more robust thunderstorms beginning to develop with transient mid to low-level mesocyclones across the Texarkana region and across parts of western AR. Stable billow clouds noted earlier in satellite imagery have begun to erode as daytime heating and a lifting warm front promote steady destabilization (MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg per mesoanalysis estimates), suggesting that convection is gradually becoming rooted near the surface. Additionally, the KFSM VWP is sampling 0-1 km SRH between 150-180 m2/s2, which is adequate to support a tornado threat with discrete convection. Watch issuance is expected for portions of western AR where convective trends and recent high-res guidance suggests a severe/tornado threat is developing. Further south, weaker forcing for ascent casts some doubt on thunderstorm coverage for the short term and when watch issuance will be needed this afternoon/evening (though trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore/Hart.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 32639509 33609451 34639445 35179445 35449436 35589409 35619368 35569329 35459303 35299295 35059293 34649309 34099330 33459366 32969398 32709418 32519441 32429467 32399487 32419502 32639509 Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..11/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-097-101-113-115-127-131-143- 149-042140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MONTGOMERY NEWTON POLK POPE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL KSC021-037-042140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-039-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-167-209-213-042140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E BWD TO 25 NNE FTW TO 25 NW MLC TO 30 SSE CNU. ..MOORE..11/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-035-041-061-077-079-089-091-097-101- 115-121-127-131-135-145-042140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEQUOYAH WAGONER TXC085-113-119-121-139-147-159-181-221-223-231-251-257-277-379- 387-397-425-439-449-467-499-042140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FANNIN FRANKLIN GRAYSON HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON Read more

MD 2205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 2205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri and far northern Arkansas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041914Z - 042045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing rapidly across southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front advancing northeast across eastern Oklahoma to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and far southern Missouri. A line embedded supercell with a confirmed tornado is moving through northeast Oklahoma and should persist northeast through the afternoon/evening. The area where the line of storms interacts with the warm front will likely continue to be a favorable location for tornado development. In addition, any mature supercells which develop ahead of the line could also pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear profile which is expected to improve through the evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36989600 37689533 38109487 38159334 37539289 36609296 35999325 35839435 35829471 36989600 Read more

MD 2204 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 704... FOR NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Northern Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 704... Valid 041907Z - 042030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of higher tornado potential may be developing across northern Texas, including the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area, based on storm and environmental trends. DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with the primary upper low across eastern NM/western TX is beginning to overspread central TX as evident by an increase in cellular convection across the warm sector over the past 1-2 hours. More recently, a few cells have show signs of robust intensification within a corridor of higher MLCAPE where temperatures have climbed into the low 80s with low 70s dewpoints. The FWD VWP is sampling 0-1 km SRH values around 150 m2/s2, which, in conjunction with MLCAPE values upwards of 2000 J/kg, is supporting STP values between 1-2 across the region. A couple of robust supercells will likely emerge over the next 1-2 hours with an increasing large hail and tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) prior to the passage of a outflow-dominant squall line from the west. ..Moore.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32119794 33159736 33679698 33799653 33859613 33799571 33659552 33359546 32899563 32479598 32199623 31949648 31809675 31709709 31679738 31629761 31709788 31919808 32119794 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening. Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across central Oklahoma and western North Texas. ..Guyer.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening. Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across central Oklahoma and western North Texas. ..Guyer.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening. Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across central Oklahoma and western North Texas. ..Guyer.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening. Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across central Oklahoma and western North Texas. ..Guyer.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening. Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across central Oklahoma and western North Texas. ..Guyer.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening. Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across central Oklahoma and western North Texas. ..Guyer.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. Read more