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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... An active day of fire weather is anticipated across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and portions of the High Plains. Morning 12z observed soundings from SLC (Salt Lake City, UT) and LKN (Elko, NV) indicate precipitable water values around 0.60". Midlevel moisture should increase through the day ahead of forcing for ascent with a midlevel wave currently just offshore in the Pacific Northwest. A mix of isolated to scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is expected by the afternoon with potential for new ignitions from lightning. In addition, Critical conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra across Nevada and in the High Plains. No changes have been made to this forecast. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 09/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... An active day of fire weather is anticipated across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and portions of the High Plains. Morning 12z observed soundings from SLC (Salt Lake City, UT) and LKN (Elko, NV) indicate precipitable water values around 0.60". Midlevel moisture should increase through the day ahead of forcing for ascent with a midlevel wave currently just offshore in the Pacific Northwest. A mix of isolated to scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is expected by the afternoon with potential for new ignitions from lightning. In addition, Critical conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra across Nevada and in the High Plains. No changes have been made to this forecast. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 09/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... An active day of fire weather is anticipated across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and portions of the High Plains. Morning 12z observed soundings from SLC (Salt Lake City, UT) and LKN (Elko, NV) indicate precipitable water values around 0.60". Midlevel moisture should increase through the day ahead of forcing for ascent with a midlevel wave currently just offshore in the Pacific Northwest. A mix of isolated to scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is expected by the afternoon with potential for new ignitions from lightning. In addition, Critical conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra across Nevada and in the High Plains. No changes have been made to this forecast. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 09/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... An active day of fire weather is anticipated across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and portions of the High Plains. Morning 12z observed soundings from SLC (Salt Lake City, UT) and LKN (Elko, NV) indicate precipitable water values around 0.60". Midlevel moisture should increase through the day ahead of forcing for ascent with a midlevel wave currently just offshore in the Pacific Northwest. A mix of isolated to scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is expected by the afternoon with potential for new ignitions from lightning. In addition, Critical conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra across Nevada and in the High Plains. No changes have been made to this forecast. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 09/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... An active day of fire weather is anticipated across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and portions of the High Plains. Morning 12z observed soundings from SLC (Salt Lake City, UT) and LKN (Elko, NV) indicate precipitable water values around 0.60". Midlevel moisture should increase through the day ahead of forcing for ascent with a midlevel wave currently just offshore in the Pacific Northwest. A mix of isolated to scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is expected by the afternoon with potential for new ignitions from lightning. In addition, Critical conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra across Nevada and in the High Plains. No changes have been made to this forecast. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 09/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... An active day of fire weather is anticipated across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and portions of the High Plains. Morning 12z observed soundings from SLC (Salt Lake City, UT) and LKN (Elko, NV) indicate precipitable water values around 0.60". Midlevel moisture should increase through the day ahead of forcing for ascent with a midlevel wave currently just offshore in the Pacific Northwest. A mix of isolated to scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is expected by the afternoon with potential for new ignitions from lightning. In addition, Critical conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra across Nevada and in the High Plains. No changes have been made to this forecast. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 09/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the northern CA/southern OR coast. This upper feature will move east through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into the early evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the upper disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and persisting into the evening. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer. Evaporative cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the northern CA/southern OR coast. This upper feature will move east through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into the early evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the upper disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and persisting into the evening. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer. Evaporative cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the northern CA/southern OR coast. This upper feature will move east through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into the early evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the upper disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and persisting into the evening. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer. Evaporative cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the northern CA/southern OR coast. This upper feature will move east through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into the early evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the upper disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and persisting into the evening. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer. Evaporative cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the northern CA/southern OR coast. This upper feature will move east through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into the early evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the upper disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and persisting into the evening. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer. Evaporative cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the northern CA/southern OR coast. This upper feature will move east through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into the early evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the upper disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and persisting into the evening. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer. Evaporative cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the northern CA/southern OR coast. This upper feature will move east through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into the early evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the upper disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and persisting into the evening. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer. Evaporative cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed low near the northern CA/southern OR coast. This upper feature will move east through OR and be situated along the OR/ID border by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of stronger flow (30-50 kt 500-mb winds) will move through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough and overspread northern NV into southwestern ID and eastern OR this afternoon into the early evening. Large-scale ascent associated with the upper disturbance and the development of weak buoyancy (mainly via heating), will facilitate the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms beginning later this afternoon and persisting into the evening. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (50 degrees F) with 9+ degrees C lapse rates into the mid levels and a dry sub-cloud layer. Evaporative cooling of the more intense downdrafts will probably yield a risk for isolated 60-70 mph gusts before weakening later this evening. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A closed upper low approaching the northern CA and OR Coast will continue eastward today across the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. Associated 35-50 kt mid-level south-southwesterlies will overspread these regions through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low has already encouraged weak, elevated convection this morning across pats of eastern OR and vicinity. Current expectations are for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon as daytime heating occurs, mainly across parts of central/eastern OR into ID and northern NV/northwest UT. This convection will likely be rather high-based (LCLs around 3-4 km AGL), as latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings show very limited low-level moisture, and total PWAT values generally 0.5-0.7 inches. Even with rather weak buoyancy forecast across much of this area, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage efficient evaporative cooling of convective downdrafts. An isolated risk for strong/gusty winds approaching and occasionally exceeding severe levels remains apparent with this high-based convection as it spreads generally north-northeastward through the afternoon/evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A closed upper low approaching the northern CA and OR Coast will continue eastward today across the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. Associated 35-50 kt mid-level south-southwesterlies will overspread these regions through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low has already encouraged weak, elevated convection this morning across pats of eastern OR and vicinity. Current expectations are for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon as daytime heating occurs, mainly across parts of central/eastern OR into ID and northern NV/northwest UT. This convection will likely be rather high-based (LCLs around 3-4 km AGL), as latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings show very limited low-level moisture, and total PWAT values generally 0.5-0.7 inches. Even with rather weak buoyancy forecast across much of this area, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage efficient evaporative cooling of convective downdrafts. An isolated risk for strong/gusty winds approaching and occasionally exceeding severe levels remains apparent with this high-based convection as it spreads generally north-northeastward through the afternoon/evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A closed upper low approaching the northern CA and OR Coast will continue eastward today across the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. Associated 35-50 kt mid-level south-southwesterlies will overspread these regions through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low has already encouraged weak, elevated convection this morning across pats of eastern OR and vicinity. Current expectations are for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon as daytime heating occurs, mainly across parts of central/eastern OR into ID and northern NV/northwest UT. This convection will likely be rather high-based (LCLs around 3-4 km AGL), as latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings show very limited low-level moisture, and total PWAT values generally 0.5-0.7 inches. Even with rather weak buoyancy forecast across much of this area, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage efficient evaporative cooling of convective downdrafts. An isolated risk for strong/gusty winds approaching and occasionally exceeding severe levels remains apparent with this high-based convection as it spreads generally north-northeastward through the afternoon/evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A closed upper low approaching the northern CA and OR Coast will continue eastward today across the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. Associated 35-50 kt mid-level south-southwesterlies will overspread these regions through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low has already encouraged weak, elevated convection this morning across pats of eastern OR and vicinity. Current expectations are for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon as daytime heating occurs, mainly across parts of central/eastern OR into ID and northern NV/northwest UT. This convection will likely be rather high-based (LCLs around 3-4 km AGL), as latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings show very limited low-level moisture, and total PWAT values generally 0.5-0.7 inches. Even with rather weak buoyancy forecast across much of this area, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage efficient evaporative cooling of convective downdrafts. An isolated risk for strong/gusty winds approaching and occasionally exceeding severe levels remains apparent with this high-based convection as it spreads generally north-northeastward through the afternoon/evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest may be capable of occasional strong to severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A closed upper low approaching the northern CA and OR Coast will continue eastward today across the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. Associated 35-50 kt mid-level south-southwesterlies will overspread these regions through the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low has already encouraged weak, elevated convection this morning across pats of eastern OR and vicinity. Current expectations are for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon as daytime heating occurs, mainly across parts of central/eastern OR into ID and northern NV/northwest UT. This convection will likely be rather high-based (LCLs around 3-4 km AGL), as latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings show very limited low-level moisture, and total PWAT values generally 0.5-0.7 inches. Even with rather weak buoyancy forecast across much of this area, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage efficient evaporative cooling of convective downdrafts. An isolated risk for strong/gusty winds approaching and occasionally exceeding severe levels remains apparent with this high-based convection as it spreads generally north-northeastward through the afternoon/evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/02/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky