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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...WI... Strong mid-level speed max will translate across eastern KS into southwest WI by 18z before advancing into ON later in the evening. This feature will assist a weak surface low that is expected to track from southern IA into southwest WI by early afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests weak buoyancy will develop ahead of the short wave and forecast soundings suggest shallow SBCAPE will develop by 21z as surface temperatures warm into the upper 50s. While surface parcels will struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning, strongly sheared, shallow convection may exhibit signs of organization, or perhaps even some weak rotation. A brief, weak tornado or some gusty winds may accompany this shallow convection for a few hours this afternoon. ...Lower MS Valley... Negligible height changes are expected during the day1 period as the primary short-wave trough/speed max eject into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes this afternoon. As a result, trailing front will likely remain draped across the Mid South-lower MS Valley-lower Sabine River Valley through the period. This boundary will serve as the focus for potential convective development within an environment that is not particularly unstable, but adequately sheared for organized convection. Given the poor lapse rates, and the absence of appreciable forcing, only scattered, mostly weak convection is expected. Even so, some risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...WI... Strong mid-level speed max will translate across eastern KS into southwest WI by 18z before advancing into ON later in the evening. This feature will assist a weak surface low that is expected to track from southern IA into southwest WI by early afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests weak buoyancy will develop ahead of the short wave and forecast soundings suggest shallow SBCAPE will develop by 21z as surface temperatures warm into the upper 50s. While surface parcels will struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning, strongly sheared, shallow convection may exhibit signs of organization, or perhaps even some weak rotation. A brief, weak tornado or some gusty winds may accompany this shallow convection for a few hours this afternoon. ...Lower MS Valley... Negligible height changes are expected during the day1 period as the primary short-wave trough/speed max eject into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes this afternoon. As a result, trailing front will likely remain draped across the Mid South-lower MS Valley-lower Sabine River Valley through the period. This boundary will serve as the focus for potential convective development within an environment that is not particularly unstable, but adequately sheared for organized convection. Given the poor lapse rates, and the absence of appreciable forcing, only scattered, mostly weak convection is expected. Even so, some risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/05/2024 Read more

MD 2211 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...parts of southern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050138Z - 050415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may effectively translate east/southeast along the cold front, with localized hail toward the I-35 corridor this evening. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push southeastward across central and southern TX, with renewed storms west of I-35 recently. The air mass is moist and unstable with little cap. Deep-layer wind fields are generally parallel to the front, with weak flow in the 850 to 700 mb layer. This may limit rightward propagation potential off the front. However, boundary-layer southeast winds will aid inflow and convergence along the front. As the front continues southeastward, new updrafts may develop, with brief hail potential. In general, most cells should not be severe for very long, and as such, a watch is not anticipated. ..Jewell.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28409940 29119936 29979870 30599799 30729724 30369683 29779704 28939778 28439829 28209904 28409940 Read more

MD 2212 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 705... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...South-central Missouri and portions of western Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 705... Valid 050214Z - 050345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 705 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for embedded severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado continues across portions of Tornado Watch 705. A local watch extension or a new watch could eventually be needed, though it is unclear how long the severe risk will persist. DISCUSSION...A northeast/southwest-oriented semi-continuous convective line continues to advance slowly east-northeastward from south-central MO into western AR, with additional warm-advection-driven cells immediately ahead of the line. Regional VWP data depicts around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented parallel to the convective line, generally supporting a continued linear mode. While meager instability is generally limiting updraft intensity, upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints (decreasing with northward extent) and a 50-55 kt low-level jet (and related warm advection/clockwise-curved hodographs) may support a continued severe threat for the next couple of hours. The primary concerns are embedded severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two (both embedded in the line and with any discrete cells ahead of the line). It is unclear if a local watch extension or new watch will be needed, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 34969455 37089265 37649234 38059240 38069209 37789161 37289149 36619180 34799346 34599393 34609454 34969455 Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW FSM TO 25 SSE SGF TO 25 NNE SGF. ..WEINMAN..11/05/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-115-127- 129-131-143-149-050240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PIKE POLK POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL MOC043-067-091-153-209-213-215-225-229-050240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS HOWELL OZARK STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW FSM TO 25 SSE SGF TO 25 NNE SGF. ..WEINMAN..11/05/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-115-127- 129-131-143-149-050240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PIKE POLK POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL MOC043-067-091-153-209-213-215-225-229-050240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS HOWELL OZARK STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW FSM TO 25 SSE SGF TO 25 NNE SGF. ..WEINMAN..11/05/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-115-127- 129-131-143-149-050240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PIKE POLK POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL MOC043-067-091-153-209-213-215-225-229-050240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS HOWELL OZARK STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW FSM TO 25 SSE SGF TO 25 NNE SGF. ..WEINMAN..11/05/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-115-127- 129-131-143-149-050240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PIKE POLK POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL MOC043-067-091-153-209-213-215-225-229-050240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS HOWELL OZARK STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 705 TORNADO AR KS MO 041930Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Extreme southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will affect the watch area this afternoon and evening. Strong winds aloft and a warm/moist environment will pose a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Joplin MO to 40 miles west southwest of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 704... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 2210 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 705... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...North-central Arkansas into south-central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 705... Valid 050007Z - 050100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 705 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential, including the risk of a tornado or two, may be increasing over portions of north-central AR into south-central MO -- on the eastern edge of Tornado Watch 705. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms out ahead of the main convective line has shown a recent uptick in intensity and organization over north-central AR into south-central MO. This may be in response to a strengthening low-level jet from the south (see LZK VWP) and associated surface pressure falls/increasing low-level confluence. Boundary-layer moisture is also increasing ahead of these storms (lower 70s dewpoints streaming northward), which should aid in intensification despite modest instability. Large clockwise-curved hodographs (around 400 m2/s2 effective SRH) will support embedded right-moving supercells with an associated tornado risk, and a strong tornado cannot be entirely ruled out given the ample boundary-layer streamwise vorticity. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36559312 37029294 37429243 37449210 37209190 36499224 36159275 36269311 36559312 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more