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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas. ...TX... A mid- to upper-level low will meander slowly east across the Desert Southwest during the period. In between a surface high centered over the central High Plains and TC Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico, easterly low-level flow in the western Gulf Basin and TX will favor a gradual westward push of modified moisture return into west-central TX. A surface trough will likely serve as the western delimiter of moisture/instability. Models indicate at least weak to moderate buoyancy developing by mid-late afternoon in the Concho Valley. Shear profiles will support storm organization, including the possibility for supercells. Have made a small westward adjustment to low-severe probabilities over west-central TX based on the latest model guidance. Large hail appears to be the primary threat, although a confined zone may exhibit a short-duration threat for a tornado. A hail/wind risk could linger well into the evening and perhaps early overnight depending on storm-scale details unknown/not resolvable at this time. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas. ...TX... A mid- to upper-level low will meander slowly east across the Desert Southwest during the period. In between a surface high centered over the central High Plains and TC Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico, easterly low-level flow in the western Gulf Basin and TX will favor a gradual westward push of modified moisture return into west-central TX. A surface trough will likely serve as the western delimiter of moisture/instability. Models indicate at least weak to moderate buoyancy developing by mid-late afternoon in the Concho Valley. Shear profiles will support storm organization, including the possibility for supercells. Have made a small westward adjustment to low-severe probabilities over west-central TX based on the latest model guidance. Large hail appears to be the primary threat, although a confined zone may exhibit a short-duration threat for a tornado. A hail/wind risk could linger well into the evening and perhaps early overnight depending on storm-scale details unknown/not resolvable at this time. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas. ...TX... A mid- to upper-level low will meander slowly east across the Desert Southwest during the period. In between a surface high centered over the central High Plains and TC Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico, easterly low-level flow in the western Gulf Basin and TX will favor a gradual westward push of modified moisture return into west-central TX. A surface trough will likely serve as the western delimiter of moisture/instability. Models indicate at least weak to moderate buoyancy developing by mid-late afternoon in the Concho Valley. Shear profiles will support storm organization, including the possibility for supercells. Have made a small westward adjustment to low-severe probabilities over west-central TX based on the latest model guidance. Large hail appears to be the primary threat, although a confined zone may exhibit a short-duration threat for a tornado. A hail/wind risk could linger well into the evening and perhaps early overnight depending on storm-scale details unknown/not resolvable at this time. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Low-level flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon. Mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible. The tornado threat will probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Low-level flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon. Mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible. The tornado threat will probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Low-level flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon. Mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible. The tornado threat will probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Low-level flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon. Mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible. The tornado threat will probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Low-level flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon. Mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible. The tornado threat will probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Low-level flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon. Mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible. The tornado threat will probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Low-level flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon. Mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible. The tornado threat will probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Smith.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the Elevated area over northern CA. Slightly stronger winds and lower humidity may occur over the higher peaks of the coastal ranges this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and lower humidity may also extend farther south down the Central Valley. This could support elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. The elevated area was shifted slightly south. Across southern CA, offshore pressure gradients should increase overnight Tue into early Wed. Below 15% humidity and winds greater than 20 mph are possible over the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges and sustained Elevated conditions potentially beginning prior to 12z Wed. Thus, have added an Elevated area to better account for the increasing fire-weather threat into early Wed morning. Otherwise, see the previous outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the Elevated area over northern CA. Slightly stronger winds and lower humidity may occur over the higher peaks of the coastal ranges this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and lower humidity may also extend farther south down the Central Valley. This could support elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. The elevated area was shifted slightly south. Across southern CA, offshore pressure gradients should increase overnight Tue into early Wed. Below 15% humidity and winds greater than 20 mph are possible over the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges and sustained Elevated conditions potentially beginning prior to 12z Wed. Thus, have added an Elevated area to better account for the increasing fire-weather threat into early Wed morning. Otherwise, see the previous outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the Elevated area over northern CA. Slightly stronger winds and lower humidity may occur over the higher peaks of the coastal ranges this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and lower humidity may also extend farther south down the Central Valley. This could support elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. The elevated area was shifted slightly south. Across southern CA, offshore pressure gradients should increase overnight Tue into early Wed. Below 15% humidity and winds greater than 20 mph are possible over the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges and sustained Elevated conditions potentially beginning prior to 12z Wed. Thus, have added an Elevated area to better account for the increasing fire-weather threat into early Wed morning. Otherwise, see the previous outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the Elevated area over northern CA. Slightly stronger winds and lower humidity may occur over the higher peaks of the coastal ranges this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and lower humidity may also extend farther south down the Central Valley. This could support elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. The elevated area was shifted slightly south. Across southern CA, offshore pressure gradients should increase overnight Tue into early Wed. Below 15% humidity and winds greater than 20 mph are possible over the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges and sustained Elevated conditions potentially beginning prior to 12z Wed. Thus, have added an Elevated area to better account for the increasing fire-weather threat into early Wed morning. Otherwise, see the previous outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the Elevated area over northern CA. Slightly stronger winds and lower humidity may occur over the higher peaks of the coastal ranges this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and lower humidity may also extend farther south down the Central Valley. This could support elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. The elevated area was shifted slightly south. Across southern CA, offshore pressure gradients should increase overnight Tue into early Wed. Below 15% humidity and winds greater than 20 mph are possible over the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges and sustained Elevated conditions potentially beginning prior to 12z Wed. Thus, have added an Elevated area to better account for the increasing fire-weather threat into early Wed morning. Otherwise, see the previous outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the Elevated area over northern CA. Slightly stronger winds and lower humidity may occur over the higher peaks of the coastal ranges this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and lower humidity may also extend farther south down the Central Valley. This could support elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. The elevated area was shifted slightly south. Across southern CA, offshore pressure gradients should increase overnight Tue into early Wed. Below 15% humidity and winds greater than 20 mph are possible over the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges and sustained Elevated conditions potentially beginning prior to 12z Wed. Thus, have added an Elevated area to better account for the increasing fire-weather threat into early Wed morning. Otherwise, see the previous outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the Elevated area over northern CA. Slightly stronger winds and lower humidity may occur over the higher peaks of the coastal ranges this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and lower humidity may also extend farther south down the Central Valley. This could support elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. The elevated area was shifted slightly south. Across southern CA, offshore pressure gradients should increase overnight Tue into early Wed. Below 15% humidity and winds greater than 20 mph are possible over the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges and sustained Elevated conditions potentially beginning prior to 12z Wed. Thus, have added an Elevated area to better account for the increasing fire-weather threat into early Wed morning. Otherwise, see the previous outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...LA/MS... A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details on this environment. ...AR/TN/KY/IN... A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ....WI... A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...LA/MS... A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details on this environment. ...AR/TN/KY/IN... A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ....WI... A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...LA/MS... A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details on this environment. ...AR/TN/KY/IN... A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ....WI... A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/05/2024 Read more