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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Hurricane Rafael, from late morning into the evening, across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Hurricane Rafael... Dominant Bermuda High will prove instrumental in the upcoming track of Hurricane Rafael. Over the next 36hr, Rafael is forecast to continue its northwest trajectory across Cuba into the southeastern Gulf Basin. Low-level shear will gradually increase across the Keys into extreme southern FL, and outer convective bands will begin to affect this portion of FL, especially later this afternoon/evening. Current track (reference https://www.nhc.noaa.gov) suggests severe probabilities will not need to be expanded north across the Peninsula as strongest shear will remain offshore across the Gulf Basin. Some tornado threat can be expected with strongest, more organized convection, especially across the Keys. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Hurricane Rafael, from late morning into the evening, across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Hurricane Rafael... Dominant Bermuda High will prove instrumental in the upcoming track of Hurricane Rafael. Over the next 36hr, Rafael is forecast to continue its northwest trajectory across Cuba into the southeastern Gulf Basin. Low-level shear will gradually increase across the Keys into extreme southern FL, and outer convective bands will begin to affect this portion of FL, especially later this afternoon/evening. Current track (reference https://www.nhc.noaa.gov) suggests severe probabilities will not need to be expanded north across the Peninsula as strongest shear will remain offshore across the Gulf Basin. Some tornado threat can be expected with strongest, more organized convection, especially across the Keys. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Hurricane Rafael, from late morning into the evening, across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Hurricane Rafael... Dominant Bermuda High will prove instrumental in the upcoming track of Hurricane Rafael. Over the next 36hr, Rafael is forecast to continue its northwest trajectory across Cuba into the southeastern Gulf Basin. Low-level shear will gradually increase across the Keys into extreme southern FL, and outer convective bands will begin to affect this portion of FL, especially later this afternoon/evening. Current track (reference https://www.nhc.noaa.gov) suggests severe probabilities will not need to be expanded north across the Peninsula as strongest shear will remain offshore across the Gulf Basin. Some tornado threat can be expected with strongest, more organized convection, especially across the Keys. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Hurricane Rafael, from late morning into the evening, across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Hurricane Rafael... Dominant Bermuda High will prove instrumental in the upcoming track of Hurricane Rafael. Over the next 36hr, Rafael is forecast to continue its northwest trajectory across Cuba into the southeastern Gulf Basin. Low-level shear will gradually increase across the Keys into extreme southern FL, and outer convective bands will begin to affect this portion of FL, especially later this afternoon/evening. Current track (reference https://www.nhc.noaa.gov) suggests severe probabilities will not need to be expanded north across the Peninsula as strongest shear will remain offshore across the Gulf Basin. Some tornado threat can be expected with strongest, more organized convection, especially across the Keys. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Hurricane Rafael, from late morning into the evening, across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Hurricane Rafael... Dominant Bermuda High will prove instrumental in the upcoming track of Hurricane Rafael. Over the next 36hr, Rafael is forecast to continue its northwest trajectory across Cuba into the southeastern Gulf Basin. Low-level shear will gradually increase across the Keys into extreme southern FL, and outer convective bands will begin to affect this portion of FL, especially later this afternoon/evening. Current track (reference https://www.nhc.noaa.gov) suggests severe probabilities will not need to be expanded north across the Peninsula as strongest shear will remain offshore across the Gulf Basin. Some tornado threat can be expected with strongest, more organized convection, especially across the Keys. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected overnight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough continues ejecting northeast across the upper Great Lakes region early this evening. This feature will top the eastern US ridge over southern ON/QC toward sunrise, as the next strong upper trough digs into the Four Corners. Associated surface front has stalled across lower latitudes, but will continue to advance into the OH Valley into the early parts of the day2 period. As the primary focus for large-scale ascent shifts north of the international border, lack of focus along the trailing front should lead to only weak, and mostly shallow convection. While a few updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, conditions do not currently warrant severe probabilities the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected overnight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough continues ejecting northeast across the upper Great Lakes region early this evening. This feature will top the eastern US ridge over southern ON/QC toward sunrise, as the next strong upper trough digs into the Four Corners. Associated surface front has stalled across lower latitudes, but will continue to advance into the OH Valley into the early parts of the day2 period. As the primary focus for large-scale ascent shifts north of the international border, lack of focus along the trailing front should lead to only weak, and mostly shallow convection. While a few updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, conditions do not currently warrant severe probabilities the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected overnight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough continues ejecting northeast across the upper Great Lakes region early this evening. This feature will top the eastern US ridge over southern ON/QC toward sunrise, as the next strong upper trough digs into the Four Corners. Associated surface front has stalled across lower latitudes, but will continue to advance into the OH Valley into the early parts of the day2 period. As the primary focus for large-scale ascent shifts north of the international border, lack of focus along the trailing front should lead to only weak, and mostly shallow convection. While a few updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, conditions do not currently warrant severe probabilities the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/06/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 5 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 5 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active mid-level flow regime is likely to continue over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Strong troughing over the western US will gradually shift eastward this weekend, followed by shortwave ridging. By early next week, the upper ridge will break down, allowing stronger jet energy to move back over the West ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. This active and progressive flow pattern will continue through the end of the period, supporting the potential for critical fire-weather over parts of California. ...Southern California... On the backside of the strong trough, northerly flow will linger over southern California D3/Thursday into early D4/Friday. Offshore winds will remain fairly strong early in the period before weakening rapidly into this weekend. As the winds gradually fade, very low humidity should persist into the first part of the weekend. This may keep some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D6/Sunday across parts of southern California. Later in the weekend and into early next week, onshore flow will return, increasing RH as a progressive, low-latitude flow regime persists. Fire-weather concerns will lessen temporarily before potentially returning ahead of another deepening trough midweek next week. Medium-range guidance shows the potential for a period of offshore winds behind the large Pacific trough into week 2. Strong winds and very low relative humidity could overlap with very dry and dense fuels across much of southern California. Model guidance varies enough on the magnitude and timing of the onset of offshore winds that probabilities will be withheld for the time being. However, significant fire-weather concerns are possible at the end of the extended forecast period and through next week. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active mid-level flow regime is likely to continue over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Strong troughing over the western US will gradually shift eastward this weekend, followed by shortwave ridging. By early next week, the upper ridge will break down, allowing stronger jet energy to move back over the West ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. This active and progressive flow pattern will continue through the end of the period, supporting the potential for critical fire-weather over parts of California. ...Southern California... On the backside of the strong trough, northerly flow will linger over southern California D3/Thursday into early D4/Friday. Offshore winds will remain fairly strong early in the period before weakening rapidly into this weekend. As the winds gradually fade, very low humidity should persist into the first part of the weekend. This may keep some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D6/Sunday across parts of southern California. Later in the weekend and into early next week, onshore flow will return, increasing RH as a progressive, low-latitude flow regime persists. Fire-weather concerns will lessen temporarily before potentially returning ahead of another deepening trough midweek next week. Medium-range guidance shows the potential for a period of offshore winds behind the large Pacific trough into week 2. Strong winds and very low relative humidity could overlap with very dry and dense fuels across much of southern California. Model guidance varies enough on the magnitude and timing of the onset of offshore winds that probabilities will be withheld for the time being. However, significant fire-weather concerns are possible at the end of the extended forecast period and through next week. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active mid-level flow regime is likely to continue over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Strong troughing over the western US will gradually shift eastward this weekend, followed by shortwave ridging. By early next week, the upper ridge will break down, allowing stronger jet energy to move back over the West ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. This active and progressive flow pattern will continue through the end of the period, supporting the potential for critical fire-weather over parts of California. ...Southern California... On the backside of the strong trough, northerly flow will linger over southern California D3/Thursday into early D4/Friday. Offshore winds will remain fairly strong early in the period before weakening rapidly into this weekend. As the winds gradually fade, very low humidity should persist into the first part of the weekend. This may keep some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D6/Sunday across parts of southern California. Later in the weekend and into early next week, onshore flow will return, increasing RH as a progressive, low-latitude flow regime persists. Fire-weather concerns will lessen temporarily before potentially returning ahead of another deepening trough midweek next week. Medium-range guidance shows the potential for a period of offshore winds behind the large Pacific trough into week 2. Strong winds and very low relative humidity could overlap with very dry and dense fuels across much of southern California. Model guidance varies enough on the magnitude and timing of the onset of offshore winds that probabilities will be withheld for the time being. However, significant fire-weather concerns are possible at the end of the extended forecast period and through next week. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active mid-level flow regime is likely to continue over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Strong troughing over the western US will gradually shift eastward this weekend, followed by shortwave ridging. By early next week, the upper ridge will break down, allowing stronger jet energy to move back over the West ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. This active and progressive flow pattern will continue through the end of the period, supporting the potential for critical fire-weather over parts of California. ...Southern California... On the backside of the strong trough, northerly flow will linger over southern California D3/Thursday into early D4/Friday. Offshore winds will remain fairly strong early in the period before weakening rapidly into this weekend. As the winds gradually fade, very low humidity should persist into the first part of the weekend. This may keep some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D6/Sunday across parts of southern California. Later in the weekend and into early next week, onshore flow will return, increasing RH as a progressive, low-latitude flow regime persists. Fire-weather concerns will lessen temporarily before potentially returning ahead of another deepening trough midweek next week. Medium-range guidance shows the potential for a period of offshore winds behind the large Pacific trough into week 2. Strong winds and very low relative humidity could overlap with very dry and dense fuels across much of southern California. Model guidance varies enough on the magnitude and timing of the onset of offshore winds that probabilities will be withheld for the time being. However, significant fire-weather concerns are possible at the end of the extended forecast period and through next week. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active mid-level flow regime is likely to continue over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Strong troughing over the western US will gradually shift eastward this weekend, followed by shortwave ridging. By early next week, the upper ridge will break down, allowing stronger jet energy to move back over the West ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. This active and progressive flow pattern will continue through the end of the period, supporting the potential for critical fire-weather over parts of California. ...Southern California... On the backside of the strong trough, northerly flow will linger over southern California D3/Thursday into early D4/Friday. Offshore winds will remain fairly strong early in the period before weakening rapidly into this weekend. As the winds gradually fade, very low humidity should persist into the first part of the weekend. This may keep some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D6/Sunday across parts of southern California. Later in the weekend and into early next week, onshore flow will return, increasing RH as a progressive, low-latitude flow regime persists. Fire-weather concerns will lessen temporarily before potentially returning ahead of another deepening trough midweek next week. Medium-range guidance shows the potential for a period of offshore winds behind the large Pacific trough into week 2. Strong winds and very low relative humidity could overlap with very dry and dense fuels across much of southern California. Model guidance varies enough on the magnitude and timing of the onset of offshore winds that probabilities will be withheld for the time being. However, significant fire-weather concerns are possible at the end of the extended forecast period and through next week. ..Lyons.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... With the primary mid-level forcing moving away from the ArkLaMiss, storm coverage should generally remain more isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. Furthermore, regional VAD profiles suggest low-level shear have been decreasing with time. Given these observational trends, tornado probabilities have been reduced in the region. The marginal risk across Wisconsin has been adjusted based on surface observations. A line of shallow convection moving east through western Wisconsin may produce isolated strong/damaging winds as it moves into areas where at least muted heating has occurred. KMKX VAD suggests strong enough flow in the lowest 1-2 km to support this risk. ..Wendt.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...LA/MS... A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details on this environment. ...AR/TN/KY/IN... A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ....WI... A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... With the primary mid-level forcing moving away from the ArkLaMiss, storm coverage should generally remain more isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. Furthermore, regional VAD profiles suggest low-level shear have been decreasing with time. Given these observational trends, tornado probabilities have been reduced in the region. The marginal risk across Wisconsin has been adjusted based on surface observations. A line of shallow convection moving east through western Wisconsin may produce isolated strong/damaging winds as it moves into areas where at least muted heating has occurred. KMKX VAD suggests strong enough flow in the lowest 1-2 km to support this risk. ..Wendt.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...LA/MS... A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details on this environment. ...AR/TN/KY/IN... A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ....WI... A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... With the primary mid-level forcing moving away from the ArkLaMiss, storm coverage should generally remain more isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. Furthermore, regional VAD profiles suggest low-level shear have been decreasing with time. Given these observational trends, tornado probabilities have been reduced in the region. The marginal risk across Wisconsin has been adjusted based on surface observations. A line of shallow convection moving east through western Wisconsin may produce isolated strong/damaging winds as it moves into areas where at least muted heating has occurred. KMKX VAD suggests strong enough flow in the lowest 1-2 km to support this risk. ..Wendt.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...LA/MS... A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details on this environment. ...AR/TN/KY/IN... A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ....WI... A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... With the primary mid-level forcing moving away from the ArkLaMiss, storm coverage should generally remain more isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. Furthermore, regional VAD profiles suggest low-level shear have been decreasing with time. Given these observational trends, tornado probabilities have been reduced in the region. The marginal risk across Wisconsin has been adjusted based on surface observations. A line of shallow convection moving east through western Wisconsin may produce isolated strong/damaging winds as it moves into areas where at least muted heating has occurred. KMKX VAD suggests strong enough flow in the lowest 1-2 km to support this risk. ..Wendt.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...LA/MS... A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details on this environment. ...AR/TN/KY/IN... A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ....WI... A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... With the primary mid-level forcing moving away from the ArkLaMiss, storm coverage should generally remain more isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. Furthermore, regional VAD profiles suggest low-level shear have been decreasing with time. Given these observational trends, tornado probabilities have been reduced in the region. The marginal risk across Wisconsin has been adjusted based on surface observations. A line of shallow convection moving east through western Wisconsin may produce isolated strong/damaging winds as it moves into areas where at least muted heating has occurred. KMKX VAD suggests strong enough flow in the lowest 1-2 km to support this risk. ..Wendt.. 11/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/ ...LA/MS... A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details on this environment. ...AR/TN/KY/IN... A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ....WI... A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period. Read more