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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Discussion... A mid/upper low over the central High Plains at 12Z Saturday should pivot northeastward towards MN/IA as it transitions to an open wave by early Sunday. Occluded surface cyclone will track from western KS to the Mid-MO Valley by Saturday evening. Trailing portion of its attendant outflow-reinforced front should slow and eventually stall late in the period across parts of AR towards the TX Gulf Coast. Surface-based buoyancy will likely be confined well to the south of a compact belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies surrounding the low/trough. With weak mid-level lapse rates, elevated buoyancy should remain meager north of the Ark-La-Tex. General thunderstorms will be possible from the western Gulf Coast to the Ozarks and Lower OH Valley. The severe-storm threat appears negligible. ..Grams.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale ridge will remain in place across the West Coast, while a deep midlevel low moves slowly eastward over the Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will continue to overspread the Lower CO River Valley and southern CA. This large-scale pattern will maintain surface ridging over the Intermountain West/Great Basin, and an associated tight offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... From Thursday morning through the afternoon, the LAX-DAG gradient should remain around -4 to -5 mb -- indicating moderate to strong Santa Ana winds across southern CA. This offshore pressure gradient, combined with the northerly upper-level wind support, will favor sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20+ mph (with higher gusts) amid lower teens to single-digit RH across portions of southern CA. Over the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles into southern Ventura Counties, several hours of 40-50-mph gusts and single-digit RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions -- further exacerbating a large ongoing wildfire incident in Ventura County. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken into the evening hours, with a corresponding decrease in surface winds. However, dry boundary-layer conditions/poor overnight recoveries are expected into Day 2/Friday. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale ridge will remain in place across the West Coast, while a deep midlevel low moves slowly eastward over the Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will continue to overspread the Lower CO River Valley and southern CA. This large-scale pattern will maintain surface ridging over the Intermountain West/Great Basin, and an associated tight offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... From Thursday morning through the afternoon, the LAX-DAG gradient should remain around -4 to -5 mb -- indicating moderate to strong Santa Ana winds across southern CA. This offshore pressure gradient, combined with the northerly upper-level wind support, will favor sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20+ mph (with higher gusts) amid lower teens to single-digit RH across portions of southern CA. Over the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles into southern Ventura Counties, several hours of 40-50-mph gusts and single-digit RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions -- further exacerbating a large ongoing wildfire incident in Ventura County. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken into the evening hours, with a corresponding decrease in surface winds. However, dry boundary-layer conditions/poor overnight recoveries are expected into Day 2/Friday. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale ridge will remain in place across the West Coast, while a deep midlevel low moves slowly eastward over the Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will continue to overspread the Lower CO River Valley and southern CA. This large-scale pattern will maintain surface ridging over the Intermountain West/Great Basin, and an associated tight offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... From Thursday morning through the afternoon, the LAX-DAG gradient should remain around -4 to -5 mb -- indicating moderate to strong Santa Ana winds across southern CA. This offshore pressure gradient, combined with the northerly upper-level wind support, will favor sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20+ mph (with higher gusts) amid lower teens to single-digit RH across portions of southern CA. Over the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles into southern Ventura Counties, several hours of 40-50-mph gusts and single-digit RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions -- further exacerbating a large ongoing wildfire incident in Ventura County. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken into the evening hours, with a corresponding decrease in surface winds. However, dry boundary-layer conditions/poor overnight recoveries are expected into Day 2/Friday. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale ridge will remain in place across the West Coast, while a deep midlevel low moves slowly eastward over the Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will continue to overspread the Lower CO River Valley and southern CA. This large-scale pattern will maintain surface ridging over the Intermountain West/Great Basin, and an associated tight offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... From Thursday morning through the afternoon, the LAX-DAG gradient should remain around -4 to -5 mb -- indicating moderate to strong Santa Ana winds across southern CA. This offshore pressure gradient, combined with the northerly upper-level wind support, will favor sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20+ mph (with higher gusts) amid lower teens to single-digit RH across portions of southern CA. Over the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles into southern Ventura Counties, several hours of 40-50-mph gusts and single-digit RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions -- further exacerbating a large ongoing wildfire incident in Ventura County. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken into the evening hours, with a corresponding decrease in surface winds. However, dry boundary-layer conditions/poor overnight recoveries are expected into Day 2/Friday. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. ...TX... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return north of the Red River. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be. Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35 corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a greater severe threat may be. Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat will likely diminish after sunset. ..Grams.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. ...TX... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return north of the Red River. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be. Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35 corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a greater severe threat may be. Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat will likely diminish after sunset. ..Grams.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. ...TX... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return north of the Red River. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be. Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35 corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a greater severe threat may be. Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat will likely diminish after sunset. ..Grams.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. ...TX... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return north of the Red River. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be. Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35 corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a greater severe threat may be. Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat will likely diminish after sunset. ..Grams.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening/tonight across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are all possible. ...West Texas... Strong upper low is digging southeast across the Four Corners region, in line with latest model guidance. This feature will advance across the southern Rockies during the day1 period, finally approaching the southern High Plains by 08/12z. This eastward ejection is due to an 80+kt 500mb speed max that will translate through the base of the trough into far west TX by sunrise. As the upper trough settles into the southern Rockies, cold boundary-layer air will surge south across the High Plains. Currently, at 05z, a sharp cold front extends from southwest KS-LBB-HOB-ROW. This boundary will likely surge a bit south of 00z model guidance as its current position is well ahead of forecast position. LLJ will increase atop this boundary and low-level warm advection is expected to lead to scattered convection, as elevated buoyancy should be more than adequate for deep updrafts. Models do not exhibit strong instability across the warm sector, but surface-based parcels do become weakly inhibited by late afternoon, and SBCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg across the Edwards Plateau into far west TX, south of the wind shift. Forecast soundings favor supercells, but forcing will be limited until the latter half of the period. While scattered warm-advection storms may materialize during the day, the primary concern will be later in the evening and overnight as large-scale forcing increases ahead of the ejecting trough. Widespread convection is expected to develop across the southern High Plains and expand in areal coverage, modulated by a strengthening LLJ by 06z. Hail may be the primary concern, along with some wind gusts. However, any surface-based storms will be adequately sheared for some risk of tornadoes. An extensive convective/precip event should materialize during the overnight hours across west TX into western OK which will likely influence convective mode. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening/tonight across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are all possible. ...West Texas... Strong upper low is digging southeast across the Four Corners region, in line with latest model guidance. This feature will advance across the southern Rockies during the day1 period, finally approaching the southern High Plains by 08/12z. This eastward ejection is due to an 80+kt 500mb speed max that will translate through the base of the trough into far west TX by sunrise. As the upper trough settles into the southern Rockies, cold boundary-layer air will surge south across the High Plains. Currently, at 05z, a sharp cold front extends from southwest KS-LBB-HOB-ROW. This boundary will likely surge a bit south of 00z model guidance as its current position is well ahead of forecast position. LLJ will increase atop this boundary and low-level warm advection is expected to lead to scattered convection, as elevated buoyancy should be more than adequate for deep updrafts. Models do not exhibit strong instability across the warm sector, but surface-based parcels do become weakly inhibited by late afternoon, and SBCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg across the Edwards Plateau into far west TX, south of the wind shift. Forecast soundings favor supercells, but forcing will be limited until the latter half of the period. While scattered warm-advection storms may materialize during the day, the primary concern will be later in the evening and overnight as large-scale forcing increases ahead of the ejecting trough. Widespread convection is expected to develop across the southern High Plains and expand in areal coverage, modulated by a strengthening LLJ by 06z. Hail may be the primary concern, along with some wind gusts. However, any surface-based storms will be adequately sheared for some risk of tornadoes. An extensive convective/precip event should materialize during the overnight hours across west TX into western OK which will likely influence convective mode. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening/tonight across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are all possible. ...West Texas... Strong upper low is digging southeast across the Four Corners region, in line with latest model guidance. This feature will advance across the southern Rockies during the day1 period, finally approaching the southern High Plains by 08/12z. This eastward ejection is due to an 80+kt 500mb speed max that will translate through the base of the trough into far west TX by sunrise. As the upper trough settles into the southern Rockies, cold boundary-layer air will surge south across the High Plains. Currently, at 05z, a sharp cold front extends from southwest KS-LBB-HOB-ROW. This boundary will likely surge a bit south of 00z model guidance as its current position is well ahead of forecast position. LLJ will increase atop this boundary and low-level warm advection is expected to lead to scattered convection, as elevated buoyancy should be more than adequate for deep updrafts. Models do not exhibit strong instability across the warm sector, but surface-based parcels do become weakly inhibited by late afternoon, and SBCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg across the Edwards Plateau into far west TX, south of the wind shift. Forecast soundings favor supercells, but forcing will be limited until the latter half of the period. While scattered warm-advection storms may materialize during the day, the primary concern will be later in the evening and overnight as large-scale forcing increases ahead of the ejecting trough. Widespread convection is expected to develop across the southern High Plains and expand in areal coverage, modulated by a strengthening LLJ by 06z. Hail may be the primary concern, along with some wind gusts. However, any surface-based storms will be adequately sheared for some risk of tornadoes. An extensive convective/precip event should materialize during the overnight hours across west TX into western OK which will likely influence convective mode. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening/tonight across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are all possible. ...West Texas... Strong upper low is digging southeast across the Four Corners region, in line with latest model guidance. This feature will advance across the southern Rockies during the day1 period, finally approaching the southern High Plains by 08/12z. This eastward ejection is due to an 80+kt 500mb speed max that will translate through the base of the trough into far west TX by sunrise. As the upper trough settles into the southern Rockies, cold boundary-layer air will surge south across the High Plains. Currently, at 05z, a sharp cold front extends from southwest KS-LBB-HOB-ROW. This boundary will likely surge a bit south of 00z model guidance as its current position is well ahead of forecast position. LLJ will increase atop this boundary and low-level warm advection is expected to lead to scattered convection, as elevated buoyancy should be more than adequate for deep updrafts. Models do not exhibit strong instability across the warm sector, but surface-based parcels do become weakly inhibited by late afternoon, and SBCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg across the Edwards Plateau into far west TX, south of the wind shift. Forecast soundings favor supercells, but forcing will be limited until the latter half of the period. While scattered warm-advection storms may materialize during the day, the primary concern will be later in the evening and overnight as large-scale forcing increases ahead of the ejecting trough. Widespread convection is expected to develop across the southern High Plains and expand in areal coverage, modulated by a strengthening LLJ by 06z. Hail may be the primary concern, along with some wind gusts. However, any surface-based storms will be adequately sheared for some risk of tornadoes. An extensive convective/precip event should materialize during the overnight hours across west TX into western OK which will likely influence convective mode. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible within outermost fringes of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael this evening. ...01z Update... Hurricane Rafael has crossed Cuba and is moving northwest into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Center of circulation is about 125 mi southwest of KEY, and the outer-most convective bands continue to influence the Keys. Over the last few hours, 3km SRH has begun to gradually decrease at BYX, suggesting that the greatest tornado threat has likely peaked, and should continue to decrease through the overnight hours. Will maintain tornado probabilities across portions of south Florida, but this is primarily for this evening. ..Darrow.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible within outermost fringes of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael this evening. ...01z Update... Hurricane Rafael has crossed Cuba and is moving northwest into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Center of circulation is about 125 mi southwest of KEY, and the outer-most convective bands continue to influence the Keys. Over the last few hours, 3km SRH has begun to gradually decrease at BYX, suggesting that the greatest tornado threat has likely peaked, and should continue to decrease through the overnight hours. Will maintain tornado probabilities across portions of south Florida, but this is primarily for this evening. ..Darrow.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible within outermost fringes of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael this evening. ...01z Update... Hurricane Rafael has crossed Cuba and is moving northwest into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Center of circulation is about 125 mi southwest of KEY, and the outer-most convective bands continue to influence the Keys. Over the last few hours, 3km SRH has begun to gradually decrease at BYX, suggesting that the greatest tornado threat has likely peaked, and should continue to decrease through the overnight hours. Will maintain tornado probabilities across portions of south Florida, but this is primarily for this evening. ..Darrow.. 11/07/2024 Read more