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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart.. 11/07/2024 Read more

MD 2215 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST NM...EXTREME NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 2215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Areas affected...Northeast NM...Extreme Northwest TX Panhandle...Far Western OK Panhandle...Southeast CO Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071306Z - 071700Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall (i.e. rates exceeding 1"/hr.) are expected to persist across northeastern NM and eastern CO, and into adjacent portions of western KS and the western TX/OK Panhandle through the morning. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a notable baroclinic leaf across northeast NM and eastern CO, downstream of a deep upper low centered over AZ. This synoptic pattern is favoring strong mid-level warm-air advection across the warm sector of this cyclone, contributing to a broad area of precipitation across much of central/eastern NM and eastern CO, and into adjacent portions of western KS and the western TX/OK Panhandles. Thermodynamic profiles from east-central NM northward are cold enough for snow, and recent observations suggest moderate to occasionally heavy snow is ongoing across the region. The upper low is expected to drift slowly eastward throughout the day. With the slow motion of will keep much of this region in a favorable location for continued moderate to heavy snow, with snowfall rates occasionally topping 1" per hour across the lower elevations. The mid-level warm-air advection is currently maximized across northeast NM, suggesting the heaviest snowfall is most likely across southeast CO for the next few hours. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37950413 39090394 39290264 38250206 36540236 35730337 35760453 37950413 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. ..Hart/Lyons.. 11/07/2024 Read more