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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Western Gulf Coast to Lower MO/OH Valleys... A vertically stacked cyclone will pivot northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest during the period. An occluded/cold front will initially arc southeast to south from the surface low. The trailing portion will slow and become nearly stationary from AR to the TX Gulf Coast by early Sunday. A warm front will attempt to advance north across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South by late afternoon Saturday. Rich low-level moisture will be present along/south of the front. But the belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone will remain displaced well north of the warm front. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly hamper warm-sector buoyancy. Much of the thunderstorm activity should remain elevated and driven by the warm conveyor in a weakly buoyant profile. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Western Gulf Coast to Lower MO/OH Valleys... A vertically stacked cyclone will pivot northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest during the period. An occluded/cold front will initially arc southeast to south from the surface low. The trailing portion will slow and become nearly stationary from AR to the TX Gulf Coast by early Sunday. A warm front will attempt to advance north across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South by late afternoon Saturday. Rich low-level moisture will be present along/south of the front. But the belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone will remain displaced well north of the warm front. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly hamper warm-sector buoyancy. Much of the thunderstorm activity should remain elevated and driven by the warm conveyor in a weakly buoyant profile. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Western Gulf Coast to Lower MO/OH Valleys... A vertically stacked cyclone will pivot northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest during the period. An occluded/cold front will initially arc southeast to south from the surface low. The trailing portion will slow and become nearly stationary from AR to the TX Gulf Coast by early Sunday. A warm front will attempt to advance north across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South by late afternoon Saturday. Rich low-level moisture will be present along/south of the front. But the belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone will remain displaced well north of the warm front. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly hamper warm-sector buoyancy. Much of the thunderstorm activity should remain elevated and driven by the warm conveyor in a weakly buoyant profile. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Western Gulf Coast to Lower MO/OH Valleys... A vertically stacked cyclone will pivot northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest during the period. An occluded/cold front will initially arc southeast to south from the surface low. The trailing portion will slow and become nearly stationary from AR to the TX Gulf Coast by early Sunday. A warm front will attempt to advance north across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South by late afternoon Saturday. Rich low-level moisture will be present along/south of the front. But the belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone will remain displaced well north of the warm front. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly hamper warm-sector buoyancy. Much of the thunderstorm activity should remain elevated and driven by the warm conveyor in a weakly buoyant profile. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Western Gulf Coast to Lower MO/OH Valleys... A vertically stacked cyclone will pivot northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest during the period. An occluded/cold front will initially arc southeast to south from the surface low. The trailing portion will slow and become nearly stationary from AR to the TX Gulf Coast by early Sunday. A warm front will attempt to advance north across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South by late afternoon Saturday. Rich low-level moisture will be present along/south of the front. But the belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone will remain displaced well north of the warm front. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly hamper warm-sector buoyancy. Much of the thunderstorm activity should remain elevated and driven by the warm conveyor in a weakly buoyant profile. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies, will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics, late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS. In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered convection atop the cooler boundary layer. Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two can be expected with this activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies, will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics, late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS. In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered convection atop the cooler boundary layer. Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two can be expected with this activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies, will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics, late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS. In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered convection atop the cooler boundary layer. Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two can be expected with this activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies, will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics, late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS. In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered convection atop the cooler boundary layer. Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two can be expected with this activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies, will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics, late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS. In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered convection atop the cooler boundary layer. Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two can be expected with this activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024 Read more

WW 0707 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE 6R6 TO 35 WSW ABI TO 30 N ABI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 707 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08/05Z. ..KERR..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-235-253-399-413-417-435-441-451- 080500- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION JONES RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more