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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will shift east/northeast into southern Quebec and the Northeast. A quasi-stationary surface boundary will extend southwest from a Great Lakes/southeastern Canada low into the Mid-South and east Texas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm sector ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates, weak instability and weakening vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. A few thunderstorms may develop near the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday/early Monday as a shortwave upper trough approaches the region. Additional thunderstorms also are possible across south FL from late afternoon onward as moisture increases within a southeasterly flow regime. ...Coastal Louisiana... Forecast guidance continues to show some spread regarding the central position of Rafael on Sunday. However, ECMWF ensembles mostly still align with latest track guidance from the National Hurricane Center, keeping the low well offshore the Gulf Coast. As such, tornado potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will shift east/northeast into southern Quebec and the Northeast. A quasi-stationary surface boundary will extend southwest from a Great Lakes/southeastern Canada low into the Mid-South and east Texas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm sector ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates, weak instability and weakening vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. A few thunderstorms may develop near the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday/early Monday as a shortwave upper trough approaches the region. Additional thunderstorms also are possible across south FL from late afternoon onward as moisture increases within a southeasterly flow regime. ...Coastal Louisiana... Forecast guidance continues to show some spread regarding the central position of Rafael on Sunday. However, ECMWF ensembles mostly still align with latest track guidance from the National Hurricane Center, keeping the low well offshore the Gulf Coast. As such, tornado potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 8 17:57:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more