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MD 2221 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO into extreme northeast NM and the western OK Panhandle Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 081951Z - 090015Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...The deep mid/upper-level cyclone over NM that is supporting the ongoing long-duration snow event is currently in the process of pivoting north-northeastward, with a weak but deepening surface low moving northward near the OK/TX Panhandle border, where 2-hour pressure falls of 2-3 mb have been noted. Some continued deepening of this system is possible through the afternoon, which will maintain favorable deep ascent across eastern CO and vicinity. Persistent low-level moisture transport and ascent attendant to the cyclone could lead to some increase in snow rates this afternoon across parts of eastern CO, as precipitation pivots northwestward to the north of the low. While low-level temperatures will remain rather marginal, precipitation may become heavy enough to support occasional snow rates of 1+ inches per hour through the afternoon. ..Dean.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36520370 36910417 37480474 38490517 39410558 39920555 40190523 40190392 39980321 39670288 38910272 37940261 36540249 36530270 36520370 Read more

WW 708 TORNADO OK TX 081950Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma North and North-Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Bands of severe storms, and potentially a few semi-discrete supercells, should continue to develop regionally through mid/late afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Fort Sill OK to 20 miles east southeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2222 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 708... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma to central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 708... Valid 082136Z - 082330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues. SUMMARY...Local, all-hazards severe risk continues across WW 708. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop depicts essentially a steady-state character over the past 1 to 2 hours, in terms of convective intensity. A few storms have exhibited transient/weak rotation, and the strongest portion of the line -- extending from south-central Oklahoma to just west of the DFW Metroplex -- remains loosely organized. Still, some additional destabilization has occurred in the past two hours -- particularly from the Metroplex southward, where lesser cloud cover has permitted heating sufficient to push mixed-layer CAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range per RAP-based objective analysis. Given the sufficient background shear which remains in place, potential for some ramp-up in severe potential could occur over the next 1 to 2 hours, primarily across the southern half of the WW. ..Goss.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX... LAT...LON 34659810 34749769 34269668 31049597 30999795 32809785 33739780 34659810 Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW TPL TO 35 NNW FTW TO 40 W ADM TO 25 S CHK. ..KERR..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-085-137-082340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TXC027-085-097-113-121-139-145-161-181-217-251-257-293-309-349- 397-439-082340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DENTON ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE GRAYSON HILL JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO ROCKWALL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW TPL TO 35 W ACT TO 20 NE MWL TO 30 E SPS TO 20 SW CHK. ..GOSS..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-085-137-082240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TXC027-035-085-097-099-113-121-139-145-161-181-217-221-251-257- 293-309-337-349-367-397-425-439-497-082240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DENTON ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE GRAYSON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MONTAGUE NAVARRO PARKER ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT WISE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more