Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - D5/Sunday: Northeast/Mid Atlantic... An amplifying trough is forecast to evolve into a rather deep mid/upper-level cyclone over parts of Ontario into the eastern Great Lakes region on Saturday, and then begin moving eastward on Sunday. Uncertainty remains regarding the intensity/location of related surface cyclogenesis, and the timing of an attendant cold front into parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. There will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward in advance of the cold front, though instability will likely remain weak. If adequate buoyancy can develop, then increasing flow fields could support some increase in severe potential across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on D4/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding frontal position increases into D5/Sunday, though some guidance suggests potential for frontal convection to develop across parts of New England before moving offshore. ...D6/Monday - D8/Wednesday... The deep trough over the eastern CONUS is generally forecast to weaken and move offshore early next week. Farther west, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify over the Southwest, while an upper trough deepens over the eastern Pacific and eventually begins to impinge upon the Pacific Coast. A persistent surface ridge over the East is expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, which will tend to limit moisture return and severe-thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - D5/Sunday: Northeast/Mid Atlantic... An amplifying trough is forecast to evolve into a rather deep mid/upper-level cyclone over parts of Ontario into the eastern Great Lakes region on Saturday, and then begin moving eastward on Sunday. Uncertainty remains regarding the intensity/location of related surface cyclogenesis, and the timing of an attendant cold front into parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. There will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward in advance of the cold front, though instability will likely remain weak. If adequate buoyancy can develop, then increasing flow fields could support some increase in severe potential across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on D4/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding frontal position increases into D5/Sunday, though some guidance suggests potential for frontal convection to develop across parts of New England before moving offshore. ...D6/Monday - D8/Wednesday... The deep trough over the eastern CONUS is generally forecast to weaken and move offshore early next week. Farther west, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify over the Southwest, while an upper trough deepens over the eastern Pacific and eventually begins to impinge upon the Pacific Coast. A persistent surface ridge over the East is expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, which will tend to limit moisture return and severe-thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - D5/Sunday: Northeast/Mid Atlantic... An amplifying trough is forecast to evolve into a rather deep mid/upper-level cyclone over parts of Ontario into the eastern Great Lakes region on Saturday, and then begin moving eastward on Sunday. Uncertainty remains regarding the intensity/location of related surface cyclogenesis, and the timing of an attendant cold front into parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. There will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward in advance of the cold front, though instability will likely remain weak. If adequate buoyancy can develop, then increasing flow fields could support some increase in severe potential across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on D4/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding frontal position increases into D5/Sunday, though some guidance suggests potential for frontal convection to develop across parts of New England before moving offshore. ...D6/Monday - D8/Wednesday... The deep trough over the eastern CONUS is generally forecast to weaken and move offshore early next week. Farther west, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify over the Southwest, while an upper trough deepens over the eastern Pacific and eventually begins to impinge upon the Pacific Coast. A persistent surface ridge over the East is expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, which will tend to limit moisture return and severe-thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - D5/Sunday: Northeast/Mid Atlantic... An amplifying trough is forecast to evolve into a rather deep mid/upper-level cyclone over parts of Ontario into the eastern Great Lakes region on Saturday, and then begin moving eastward on Sunday. Uncertainty remains regarding the intensity/location of related surface cyclogenesis, and the timing of an attendant cold front into parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. There will be some potential for low-level moisture to be drawn northward in advance of the cold front, though instability will likely remain weak. If adequate buoyancy can develop, then increasing flow fields could support some increase in severe potential across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on D4/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding frontal position increases into D5/Sunday, though some guidance suggests potential for frontal convection to develop across parts of New England before moving offshore. ...D6/Monday - D8/Wednesday... The deep trough over the eastern CONUS is generally forecast to weaken and move offshore early next week. Farther west, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify over the Southwest, while an upper trough deepens over the eastern Pacific and eventually begins to impinge upon the Pacific Coast. A persistent surface ridge over the East is expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, which will tend to limit moisture return and severe-thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity... With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity... With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity... With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity... With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity... With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Valley vicinity... With richer low-level moisture expected to remain confined near the Gulf Coast, guidance varies regarding the extent of prefrontal moistening and destabilization across parts of the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes on Friday. Development of at least modest buoyancy appears plausible, which will aid in the development of convection near the frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. Gradually increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with the digging upper-level trough could support a few relatively organized storms, and localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if adequate destabilization can occur. Depending on trends regarding destabilization and the timing of stronger ascent and deep-layer flow attendant to the digging trough, severe probabilities may eventually be needed from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ..Dean.. 09/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited through Thursday across the country. A strong upper trough is forecast to push southward out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a cool continental air mass will push southward into the Plains, reinforcing a surface trough/cold front as it pushes further south into the Midwest and southern Plains. While breezy conditions are possible behind the front, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit RH reductions. An upper-level ridge will remain over the western CONUS, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions (RH values in the teens to 20s), but relatively weak surface winds. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more