SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707

10 months 2 weeks ago
WW 707 SEVERE TSTM TX 072320Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have formed early this evening along a boundary, and will move generally east-northeastward over the next several hours. Scattered large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter should be the main threat with this activity, although some severe wind gusts up to 60-70 mph may also occur. A tornado also appears possible with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Abilene TX to 80 miles south southwest of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707 Status Reports

10 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0707 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BGS TO 35 WSW ABI TO 50 NNW ABI. ..THORNTON..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-235-253-399-413-417-435-441-451- 080440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION JONES RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 2218

10 months 2 weeks ago
MD 2218 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707... FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Areas affected...west central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707... Valid 080151Z - 080245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707 continues. SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts may persist through late evening, southwest of San Angelo into and northeast of the San Angelo vicinity. DISCUSSION...Initial stronger convection has generally consolidated into one small cluster with an embedded supercell, likely aided by low-level forcing for ascent associated with weak warm advection. This convection might now be at least slightly elevated above more stable boundary-layer air and probably will begin to acquire more stable updraft inflow as it progresses slowly east-northeastward into areas northwest of Brownwood during the next hour or two. To the south and southwest of San Angelo, more discrete widely scattered convective cells are still struggling to overcome somewhat stronger mid-level inhibition. However, low-level convergence appears to have increased along a remnant dryline where it is being overtaken by a cold frontal surge. The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests this might become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development through 04-06Z, though the convection may tend to intensify to the cool side of the surface boundary. ..Kerr.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31360085 32129992 32299946 32049878 31429999 30120122 30850140 31360085 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707 Status Reports

10 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0707 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BGS TO 35 WSW ABI TO 50 NNW ABI. ..THORNTON..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-235-253-399-413-417-435-441-451- 080340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION JONES RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707 Status Reports

10 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0707 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BGS TO 35 WSW ABI TO 50 NNW ABI. ..THORNTON..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-081-083-095-105-235-253-399-413-417-435-441-451-080240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION JONES RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 2217

10 months 2 weeks ago
MD 2217 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0504 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Areas affected...part of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072304Z - 080100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is slowly increasing with further upscale growth possible into mid to late evening, accompanied by a risk for severe hail initially, then perhaps a few strong surface gusts later this evening. The risk for tornadoes appears low, but perhaps not out of the question. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is in the process of initiating near/southwest through northwest of San Angelo. This appears focused along a diffuse dryline structure, near its intersection with a baroclinic zone within broad weak surface troughing. Although mid-level lapse rates do not appear particularly steep, a fairly deep moist boundary may be contributing to CAPE up to 1500 J/kg, beneath strong, broadly difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow. Despite generally weak to modest low-level forcing for ascent, continuing moist unstable inflow in the presence of weakened mid-level inhibition may be sufficient to support a gradual further increase in convective development and upscale growth. Given the environment, this may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail in stronger storms initially, then perhaps some increase in potential for strong surface gusts later this evening as activity slowly shifts northeastward/eastward. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31360098 32070070 32549982 31650004 31100038 30890090 31070105 31360098 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707 Status Reports

10 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0707 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 707 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-081-083-095-105-151-235-253-353-399-413-417-435-441-451- 080140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT FISHER IRION JONES NOLAN RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 2217

10 months 2 weeks ago
MD 2217 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0504 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Areas affected...part of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072304Z - 080100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is slowly increasing with further upscale growth possible into mid to late evening, accompanied by a risk for severe hail initially, then perhaps a few strong surface gusts later this evening. The risk for tornadoes appears low, but perhaps not out of the question. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is in the process of initiating near/southwest through northwest of San Angelo. This appears focused along a diffuse dryline structure, near its intersection with a baroclinic zone within broad weak surface troughing. Although mid-level lapse rates do not appear particularly steep, a fairly deep moist boundary may be contributing to CAPE up to 1500 J/kg, beneath strong, broadly difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow. Despite generally weak to modest low-level forcing for ascent, continuing moist unstable inflow in the presence of weakened mid-level inhibition may be sufficient to support a gradual further increase in convective development and upscale growth. Given the environment, this may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail in stronger storms initially, then perhaps some increase in potential for strong surface gusts later this evening as activity slowly shifts northeastward/eastward. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31360098 32070070 32549982 31650004 31100038 30890090 31070105 31360098 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707

10 months 2 weeks ago
WW 707 SEVERE TSTM TX 072320Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have formed early this evening along a boundary, and will move generally east-northeastward over the next several hours. Scattered large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter should be the main threat with this activity, although some severe wind gusts up to 60-70 mph may also occur. A tornado also appears possible with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Abilene TX to 80 miles south southwest of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Gleason Read more