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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant weak surface low are forecast to move northeastward from western KS toward the east-central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. A cold front will extend south-southwestward from the low, with the southern portion of this front potentially becoming nearly stationary from parts of AR/MO to the upper TX Coast. Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place along/south of a warm front that is forecast to move northward across parts of AR/MO and the Mid-South. NHC is currently forecasting Tropical Cyclone Rafael to move westward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico and remain well offshore of the TX/LA coasts on Saturday. Guidance still suggests that stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, while relatively warm temperatures aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates will limit prefrontal buoyancy. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad region from LA and east TX into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys, but organized severe storms are currently not expected. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant weak surface low are forecast to move northeastward from western KS toward the east-central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. A cold front will extend south-southwestward from the low, with the southern portion of this front potentially becoming nearly stationary from parts of AR/MO to the upper TX Coast. Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place along/south of a warm front that is forecast to move northward across parts of AR/MO and the Mid-South. NHC is currently forecasting Tropical Cyclone Rafael to move westward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico and remain well offshore of the TX/LA coasts on Saturday. Guidance still suggests that stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, while relatively warm temperatures aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates will limit prefrontal buoyancy. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad region from LA and east TX into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys, but organized severe storms are currently not expected. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant weak surface low are forecast to move northeastward from western KS toward the east-central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. A cold front will extend south-southwestward from the low, with the southern portion of this front potentially becoming nearly stationary from parts of AR/MO to the upper TX Coast. Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place along/south of a warm front that is forecast to move northward across parts of AR/MO and the Mid-South. NHC is currently forecasting Tropical Cyclone Rafael to move westward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico and remain well offshore of the TX/LA coasts on Saturday. Guidance still suggests that stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, while relatively warm temperatures aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates will limit prefrontal buoyancy. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad region from LA and east TX into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys, but organized severe storms are currently not expected. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

MD 2216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and northwestern Texas and adjacent southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071826Z - 071930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Risk for hail locally -- in the 1" to 1.75" range -- is expected to very gradually increase over the next few hours. WW issuance is not anticipated in the short term, though may be considered if storms increase more rapidly in coverage/intensity than currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop and mid-level height field indicates a well-defined low centered over Arizona. Downstream, across the southern High Plains, strong/diffluent flow is in place -- supporting a zone of favorable/enhanced low-level warm advection/southeasterly flow atop a relatively cool/stable boundary layer. Within this zone of favorable quasi-geostrophic ascent, a gradual ramp-up in storm coverage and intensity has been observed over the past hour or so, with a couple of strong cells now over the western North Texas/Big Country region. With ample elevated CAPE indicated (averaging 750 to 1250 J/kg), and veering/increasing flow through the cloud-bearing layer, organized storms -- a few with mid-level rotation -- are suggested by this background environment. While the overall risk does not warrant serious WW consideration at this time, we will continue to closely monitor what should be a gradual ramp-up in storm coverage over the next several hours. ..Goss/Hart.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34820163 35110071 34849973 34049805 33269747 32059723 31269770 31029929 31180019 32390054 34820163 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more