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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas. ...Texas... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A surface low will move northward from the TX Panhandle vicinity into southwest KS, as a trailing outflow-reinforced cold front moves through parts of TX/OK. A surface ridge initially covering parts of the Plains and Midwest will tend to shift eastward with time, though the lingering influence of this ridge will tend to limit the northern extent of more substantial moisture return. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated severe threat could accompany the storms along the southern periphery of ongoing convection during the morning, where somewhat more favorable instability will be in place. Uncertainties remain regarding the northward extent of substantial destabilization through the day. However, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear will support potential for organized cells/clusters with at least an isolated severe threat. This threat could spread northeastward across parts of central/north TX through the day, before a likely weakening trend during the evening as stronger large-scale ascent lifts away from the warm sector. A minor expansion to the Marginal Risk has been made across parts of TX based on the latest guidance, though uncertainty remains high regarding the eastern and northern extent of the organized severe threat, as well as the location of any corridors where a somewhat greater threat could evolve. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas. ...Texas... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A surface low will move northward from the TX Panhandle vicinity into southwest KS, as a trailing outflow-reinforced cold front moves through parts of TX/OK. A surface ridge initially covering parts of the Plains and Midwest will tend to shift eastward with time, though the lingering influence of this ridge will tend to limit the northern extent of more substantial moisture return. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated severe threat could accompany the storms along the southern periphery of ongoing convection during the morning, where somewhat more favorable instability will be in place. Uncertainties remain regarding the northward extent of substantial destabilization through the day. However, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear will support potential for organized cells/clusters with at least an isolated severe threat. This threat could spread northeastward across parts of central/north TX through the day, before a likely weakening trend during the evening as stronger large-scale ascent lifts away from the warm sector. A minor expansion to the Marginal Risk has been made across parts of TX based on the latest guidance, though uncertainty remains high regarding the eastern and northern extent of the organized severe threat, as well as the location of any corridors where a somewhat greater threat could evolve. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas. ...Texas... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A surface low will move northward from the TX Panhandle vicinity into southwest KS, as a trailing outflow-reinforced cold front moves through parts of TX/OK. A surface ridge initially covering parts of the Plains and Midwest will tend to shift eastward with time, though the lingering influence of this ridge will tend to limit the northern extent of more substantial moisture return. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated severe threat could accompany the storms along the southern periphery of ongoing convection during the morning, where somewhat more favorable instability will be in place. Uncertainties remain regarding the northward extent of substantial destabilization through the day. However, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear will support potential for organized cells/clusters with at least an isolated severe threat. This threat could spread northeastward across parts of central/north TX through the day, before a likely weakening trend during the evening as stronger large-scale ascent lifts away from the warm sector. A minor expansion to the Marginal Risk has been made across parts of TX based on the latest guidance, though uncertainty remains high regarding the eastern and northern extent of the organized severe threat, as well as the location of any corridors where a somewhat greater threat could evolve. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas. ...Texas... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A surface low will move northward from the TX Panhandle vicinity into southwest KS, as a trailing outflow-reinforced cold front moves through parts of TX/OK. A surface ridge initially covering parts of the Plains and Midwest will tend to shift eastward with time, though the lingering influence of this ridge will tend to limit the northern extent of more substantial moisture return. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated severe threat could accompany the storms along the southern periphery of ongoing convection during the morning, where somewhat more favorable instability will be in place. Uncertainties remain regarding the northward extent of substantial destabilization through the day. However, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear will support potential for organized cells/clusters with at least an isolated severe threat. This threat could spread northeastward across parts of central/north TX through the day, before a likely weakening trend during the evening as stronger large-scale ascent lifts away from the warm sector. A minor expansion to the Marginal Risk has been made across parts of TX based on the latest guidance, though uncertainty remains high regarding the eastern and northern extent of the organized severe threat, as well as the location of any corridors where a somewhat greater threat could evolve. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas. ...Texas... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A surface low will move northward from the TX Panhandle vicinity into southwest KS, as a trailing outflow-reinforced cold front moves through parts of TX/OK. A surface ridge initially covering parts of the Plains and Midwest will tend to shift eastward with time, though the lingering influence of this ridge will tend to limit the northern extent of more substantial moisture return. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. An isolated severe threat could accompany the storms along the southern periphery of ongoing convection during the morning, where somewhat more favorable instability will be in place. Uncertainties remain regarding the northward extent of substantial destabilization through the day. However, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear will support potential for organized cells/clusters with at least an isolated severe threat. This threat could spread northeastward across parts of central/north TX through the day, before a likely weakening trend during the evening as stronger large-scale ascent lifts away from the warm sector. A minor expansion to the Marginal Risk has been made across parts of TX based on the latest guidance, though uncertainty remains high regarding the eastern and northern extent of the organized severe threat, as well as the location of any corridors where a somewhat greater threat could evolve. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a deep/closed midlevel low over the Southwest, strong deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA -- downstream of an amplified large-scale ridge over the West Coast. This upper-level pattern will maintain an expansive surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, with a related tight offshore pressure gradient and Santa Ana winds across southern CA. ...Southern California... While the offshore pressure gradient will be gradually weakening across southern CA (compared to Day 1/Wednesday), LAX-DAG should still be around -5 mb from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon -- a strong indicator of continued critical fire-weather conditions. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting a continuation of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and lower teens to single-digit RH. The best overlap and longest duration of these conditions is once again expected across the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles and southern Ventura Counties, where Critical highlights are in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a deep/closed midlevel low over the Southwest, strong deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA -- downstream of an amplified large-scale ridge over the West Coast. This upper-level pattern will maintain an expansive surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, with a related tight offshore pressure gradient and Santa Ana winds across southern CA. ...Southern California... While the offshore pressure gradient will be gradually weakening across southern CA (compared to Day 1/Wednesday), LAX-DAG should still be around -5 mb from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon -- a strong indicator of continued critical fire-weather conditions. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting a continuation of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and lower teens to single-digit RH. The best overlap and longest duration of these conditions is once again expected across the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles and southern Ventura Counties, where Critical highlights are in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a deep/closed midlevel low over the Southwest, strong deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA -- downstream of an amplified large-scale ridge over the West Coast. This upper-level pattern will maintain an expansive surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, with a related tight offshore pressure gradient and Santa Ana winds across southern CA. ...Southern California... While the offshore pressure gradient will be gradually weakening across southern CA (compared to Day 1/Wednesday), LAX-DAG should still be around -5 mb from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon -- a strong indicator of continued critical fire-weather conditions. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting a continuation of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and lower teens to single-digit RH. The best overlap and longest duration of these conditions is once again expected across the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles and southern Ventura Counties, where Critical highlights are in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a deep/closed midlevel low over the Southwest, strong deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA -- downstream of an amplified large-scale ridge over the West Coast. This upper-level pattern will maintain an expansive surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, with a related tight offshore pressure gradient and Santa Ana winds across southern CA. ...Southern California... While the offshore pressure gradient will be gradually weakening across southern CA (compared to Day 1/Wednesday), LAX-DAG should still be around -5 mb from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon -- a strong indicator of continued critical fire-weather conditions. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting a continuation of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and lower teens to single-digit RH. The best overlap and longest duration of these conditions is once again expected across the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles and southern Ventura Counties, where Critical highlights are in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a deep/closed midlevel low over the Southwest, strong deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA -- downstream of an amplified large-scale ridge over the West Coast. This upper-level pattern will maintain an expansive surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, with a related tight offshore pressure gradient and Santa Ana winds across southern CA. ...Southern California... While the offshore pressure gradient will be gradually weakening across southern CA (compared to Day 1/Wednesday), LAX-DAG should still be around -5 mb from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon -- a strong indicator of continued critical fire-weather conditions. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting a continuation of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and lower teens to single-digit RH. The best overlap and longest duration of these conditions is once again expected across the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles and southern Ventura Counties, where Critical highlights are in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a deep/closed midlevel low over the Southwest, strong deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA -- downstream of an amplified large-scale ridge over the West Coast. This upper-level pattern will maintain an expansive surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, with a related tight offshore pressure gradient and Santa Ana winds across southern CA. ...Southern California... While the offshore pressure gradient will be gradually weakening across southern CA (compared to Day 1/Wednesday), LAX-DAG should still be around -5 mb from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon -- a strong indicator of continued critical fire-weather conditions. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting a continuation of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and lower teens to single-digit RH. The best overlap and longest duration of these conditions is once again expected across the wind-prone corridor of northern Los Angeles and southern Ventura Counties, where Critical highlights are in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ...Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ...Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ...Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ...Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ...Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ...Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ...Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ...Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... Current observations show strong offshore flow across terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with sustained 30+ mph winds (and gusts well exceeding 60 mph) amid RH near 15 percent in the Ventura Valley region. These conditions should persist through much of the afternoon, necessitating the maintenance of Extremely Critical highlights. Observations in higher-terrain areas around Los Angeles toward the Laguna Mountains show solidly Critical conditions ongoing, with 20+ mph sustained winds and gusts exceeding 45 mph coinciding with 15-20 percent RH. These conditions should continue to the end of the period. Finally, guidance consensus continues to show Elevated conditions across the northern California Valley region, where downslope flow will encourage 15-20 mph sustained northerly winds amid 15-20 percent RH through the period. ..Squitieri.. 11/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a highly amplified large-scale ridge over the West Coast, and a deep midlevel trough extending from the northern Plains into the Four Corners, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread the Great Basin into southern CA. In response, an expansive surface anticyclone will be reinforced over the Intermountain West. These factors will yield a strong offshore pressure gradient and ample upper-level support across southern CA, leading to a strong Santa Ana wind event. ...Southern California... From Wednesday morning into Wednesday night, the tightening offshore pressure gradient (LAX-DAG peaking around -7 to -8 mb), coupled with the strong deep-layer north-northeasterly flow directed toward the coast, will favor sustained northeasterly surface winds of 30+ mph and gusts upwards of 60 mph across much of southern CA. Higher gusts (70+ mph) are expected over the wind-prone mountains and slopes. These strong/gusty winds will combine with lower teens/single-digit RH, leading to dangerous fire-weather conditions. The most volatile and long-duration combination of strong winds and low RH over receptive fuels is expected over the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor of southern Ventura and northern Los Angeles Counties -- where Extremely Critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern/Central California... The tight pressure gradient peripheral to the strong surface anticyclone and enhanced deep-layer northerly flow will also favor strong northerly surface winds amid low RH over the western Sacramento Valley to the coast. Given modestly receptive fuels across this region, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected from Wednesday morning into Wednesday night. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more