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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas. ...TX... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will increase across much of TX in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. 00Z models differ substantially in the location of this trough, largely bracketed by a farther east GFS and west ECMWF. This yields longitudinal uncertainty with the potential severe-storm corridor. Much of the convective development will probably be elevated to the cool side of the surface trough. Even so, a threat for severe hail should exist given favorably strong southwesterly speed shear. Surface-based buoyancy should struggle to develop north/west of central TX, ahead of the inverted trough. This may be adequate for a confined corridor of surface-based supercell threat starting Thursday afternoon. Given the spatial uncertainties and relatively nebulous setup, only low severe probabilities appear warranted. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... Per the latest NHC forecast and probable compact nature of strong low-level winds surrounding TC Rafael, a coastal tornado threat appears unlikely on Thursday to early Friday. Still, with large spread in guidance regarding the evolution of TC Rafael in the eastern to central Gulf, there remains potential for a tornado-threat highlight during this time frame in later outlooks. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas. ...TX... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will increase across much of TX in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. 00Z models differ substantially in the location of this trough, largely bracketed by a farther east GFS and west ECMWF. This yields longitudinal uncertainty with the potential severe-storm corridor. Much of the convective development will probably be elevated to the cool side of the surface trough. Even so, a threat for severe hail should exist given favorably strong southwesterly speed shear. Surface-based buoyancy should struggle to develop north/west of central TX, ahead of the inverted trough. This may be adequate for a confined corridor of surface-based supercell threat starting Thursday afternoon. Given the spatial uncertainties and relatively nebulous setup, only low severe probabilities appear warranted. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... Per the latest NHC forecast and probable compact nature of strong low-level winds surrounding TC Rafael, a coastal tornado threat appears unlikely on Thursday to early Friday. Still, with large spread in guidance regarding the evolution of TC Rafael in the eastern to central Gulf, there remains potential for a tornado-threat highlight during this time frame in later outlooks. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas. ...TX... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will increase across much of TX in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. 00Z models differ substantially in the location of this trough, largely bracketed by a farther east GFS and west ECMWF. This yields longitudinal uncertainty with the potential severe-storm corridor. Much of the convective development will probably be elevated to the cool side of the surface trough. Even so, a threat for severe hail should exist given favorably strong southwesterly speed shear. Surface-based buoyancy should struggle to develop north/west of central TX, ahead of the inverted trough. This may be adequate for a confined corridor of surface-based supercell threat starting Thursday afternoon. Given the spatial uncertainties and relatively nebulous setup, only low severe probabilities appear warranted. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... Per the latest NHC forecast and probable compact nature of strong low-level winds surrounding TC Rafael, a coastal tornado threat appears unlikely on Thursday to early Friday. Still, with large spread in guidance regarding the evolution of TC Rafael in the eastern to central Gulf, there remains potential for a tornado-threat highlight during this time frame in later outlooks. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas. ...TX... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will increase across much of TX in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. 00Z models differ substantially in the location of this trough, largely bracketed by a farther east GFS and west ECMWF. This yields longitudinal uncertainty with the potential severe-storm corridor. Much of the convective development will probably be elevated to the cool side of the surface trough. Even so, a threat for severe hail should exist given favorably strong southwesterly speed shear. Surface-based buoyancy should struggle to develop north/west of central TX, ahead of the inverted trough. This may be adequate for a confined corridor of surface-based supercell threat starting Thursday afternoon. Given the spatial uncertainties and relatively nebulous setup, only low severe probabilities appear warranted. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... Per the latest NHC forecast and probable compact nature of strong low-level winds surrounding TC Rafael, a coastal tornado threat appears unlikely on Thursday to early Friday. Still, with large spread in guidance regarding the evolution of TC Rafael in the eastern to central Gulf, there remains potential for a tornado-threat highlight during this time frame in later outlooks. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas. ...TX... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will increase across much of TX in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. 00Z models differ substantially in the location of this trough, largely bracketed by a farther east GFS and west ECMWF. This yields longitudinal uncertainty with the potential severe-storm corridor. Much of the convective development will probably be elevated to the cool side of the surface trough. Even so, a threat for severe hail should exist given favorably strong southwesterly speed shear. Surface-based buoyancy should struggle to develop north/west of central TX, ahead of the inverted trough. This may be adequate for a confined corridor of surface-based supercell threat starting Thursday afternoon. Given the spatial uncertainties and relatively nebulous setup, only low severe probabilities appear warranted. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... Per the latest NHC forecast and probable compact nature of strong low-level winds surrounding TC Rafael, a coastal tornado threat appears unlikely on Thursday to early Friday. Still, with large spread in guidance regarding the evolution of TC Rafael in the eastern to central Gulf, there remains potential for a tornado-threat highlight during this time frame in later outlooks. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOS ANGELES AND SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific and CA coast, as a belt of strong midlevel northerly flow extends from the Northwest to southern CA. This large-scale pattern will reinforce a strong surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, leading to a robust offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will be peaking from the morning into the afternoon/evening time frame, with most guidance depicting a LAX-TPH pressure gradient less than -13 mb and LAX-DAG gradient less than -6 mb -- both indicating a strong Santa Ana event across southern CA. This pressure gradient, combined with the strong deep-layer northerly flow directed toward the coast, will promote 30+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds across the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridors. Over the wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern Ventura and northern/northwestern Los Angeles Counties, gusts of 60+ mph will combine with RH decreasing into the lower teens/single digits for several hours -- leading to extremely critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels. ...Northern/Central California... The tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow will yield another day of breezy/gusty northerly surface winds amid low RH across the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOS ANGELES AND SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific and CA coast, as a belt of strong midlevel northerly flow extends from the Northwest to southern CA. This large-scale pattern will reinforce a strong surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, leading to a robust offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will be peaking from the morning into the afternoon/evening time frame, with most guidance depicting a LAX-TPH pressure gradient less than -13 mb and LAX-DAG gradient less than -6 mb -- both indicating a strong Santa Ana event across southern CA. This pressure gradient, combined with the strong deep-layer northerly flow directed toward the coast, will promote 30+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds across the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridors. Over the wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern Ventura and northern/northwestern Los Angeles Counties, gusts of 60+ mph will combine with RH decreasing into the lower teens/single digits for several hours -- leading to extremely critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels. ...Northern/Central California... The tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow will yield another day of breezy/gusty northerly surface winds amid low RH across the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOS ANGELES AND SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific and CA coast, as a belt of strong midlevel northerly flow extends from the Northwest to southern CA. This large-scale pattern will reinforce a strong surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, leading to a robust offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will be peaking from the morning into the afternoon/evening time frame, with most guidance depicting a LAX-TPH pressure gradient less than -13 mb and LAX-DAG gradient less than -6 mb -- both indicating a strong Santa Ana event across southern CA. This pressure gradient, combined with the strong deep-layer northerly flow directed toward the coast, will promote 30+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds across the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridors. Over the wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern Ventura and northern/northwestern Los Angeles Counties, gusts of 60+ mph will combine with RH decreasing into the lower teens/single digits for several hours -- leading to extremely critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels. ...Northern/Central California... The tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow will yield another day of breezy/gusty northerly surface winds amid low RH across the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOS ANGELES AND SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific and CA coast, as a belt of strong midlevel northerly flow extends from the Northwest to southern CA. This large-scale pattern will reinforce a strong surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, leading to a robust offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will be peaking from the morning into the afternoon/evening time frame, with most guidance depicting a LAX-TPH pressure gradient less than -13 mb and LAX-DAG gradient less than -6 mb -- both indicating a strong Santa Ana event across southern CA. This pressure gradient, combined with the strong deep-layer northerly flow directed toward the coast, will promote 30+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds across the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridors. Over the wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern Ventura and northern/northwestern Los Angeles Counties, gusts of 60+ mph will combine with RH decreasing into the lower teens/single digits for several hours -- leading to extremely critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels. ...Northern/Central California... The tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow will yield another day of breezy/gusty northerly surface winds amid low RH across the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOS ANGELES AND SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific and CA coast, as a belt of strong midlevel northerly flow extends from the Northwest to southern CA. This large-scale pattern will reinforce a strong surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, leading to a robust offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will be peaking from the morning into the afternoon/evening time frame, with most guidance depicting a LAX-TPH pressure gradient less than -13 mb and LAX-DAG gradient less than -6 mb -- both indicating a strong Santa Ana event across southern CA. This pressure gradient, combined with the strong deep-layer northerly flow directed toward the coast, will promote 30+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds across the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridors. Over the wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern Ventura and northern/northwestern Los Angeles Counties, gusts of 60+ mph will combine with RH decreasing into the lower teens/single digits for several hours -- leading to extremely critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels. ...Northern/Central California... The tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow will yield another day of breezy/gusty northerly surface winds amid low RH across the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOS ANGELES AND SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific and CA coast, as a belt of strong midlevel northerly flow extends from the Northwest to southern CA. This large-scale pattern will reinforce a strong surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, leading to a robust offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will be peaking from the morning into the afternoon/evening time frame, with most guidance depicting a LAX-TPH pressure gradient less than -13 mb and LAX-DAG gradient less than -6 mb -- both indicating a strong Santa Ana event across southern CA. This pressure gradient, combined with the strong deep-layer northerly flow directed toward the coast, will promote 30+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds across the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridors. Over the wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern Ventura and northern/northwestern Los Angeles Counties, gusts of 60+ mph will combine with RH decreasing into the lower teens/single digits for several hours -- leading to extremely critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels. ...Northern/Central California... The tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow will yield another day of breezy/gusty northerly surface winds amid low RH across the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more