Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models have come into a bit better agreement with each other, through late next week, with respect to their handling of the large-scale features. Day 4 (Thursday), the upper trough crossing central portions of Canada and the north-central U.S. is progged to continue digging southeastward -- reaching a roughly upper Mississippi Valley to Mid-Missouri Valley position by Friday morning. As this occurs, a corresponding eastward/southward advance of a surface cold front will occur, crossing the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and drifting as far south as the central Plains overnight. Preceding the front, limited low-level moisture is expected, with Gulf moisture remaining restricted to the southern-tier states. Thus, while a few strong/severe storms may evolve within a southern Upper Great Lakes to central Plains corridor, potential for a more widespread severe event appears limited at this time. Day 5 (Friday), a continued southeastward advance/amplification of the upper trough is anticipated, shifting across the Great Lakes and Midwest through the day, and with cyclonic flow surrounding the trough to encompass the entire eastern half of the country by Saturday morning. The associated cold front -- crossing the central U.S. through the day, is expected to reach a Lower Great Lakes to Lower Mississippi Valley to Texas position overnight. Meanwhile, the height falls associated with this trough into the southeastern U.S. may support frontal wave development along the remnant baroclinic zone likely to be lingering over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast area. While still uncertain, this low may shift across the Southeast Friday, reaching the eastern Carolinas vicinity by Sunday morning. While it is not out of the question that -- with this front/low marking the northward extent of tropical low-level air, that low-end severe risk could evolve overnight. However, this scenario is uncertain, and would seem likely to remain limited in terms of significance. Day 6, some negative tilt of the upper trough is expected as it advances across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes area, with models suggesting evolution into a closed low over the eastern Ontario vicinity with time. Meanwhile, the advancing cold front is progged to begin to overtake the remnant baroclinic zone and frontal wave, with the combined front to linger near -- and eventually move off -- the Atlantic Seaboard as the frontal low moves toward/into southern New England overnight. Again, some severe potential may manifest ahead of the consolidating surface front, but at this time, models suggest that destabilization will remain largely just offshore. By Sunday (Day 7) and continuing through the end of the period, model divergence increases -- with evolution/positioning of the deepening closed low over eastern NOAM, and -- as a result, the upstream flow pattern over the western half of the country. Overall severe risk would appear to be low overall however, with general ridging likely over the western half of the country. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models have come into a bit better agreement with each other, through late next week, with respect to their handling of the large-scale features. Day 4 (Thursday), the upper trough crossing central portions of Canada and the north-central U.S. is progged to continue digging southeastward -- reaching a roughly upper Mississippi Valley to Mid-Missouri Valley position by Friday morning. As this occurs, a corresponding eastward/southward advance of a surface cold front will occur, crossing the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and drifting as far south as the central Plains overnight. Preceding the front, limited low-level moisture is expected, with Gulf moisture remaining restricted to the southern-tier states. Thus, while a few strong/severe storms may evolve within a southern Upper Great Lakes to central Plains corridor, potential for a more widespread severe event appears limited at this time. Day 5 (Friday), a continued southeastward advance/amplification of the upper trough is anticipated, shifting across the Great Lakes and Midwest through the day, and with cyclonic flow surrounding the trough to encompass the entire eastern half of the country by Saturday morning. The associated cold front -- crossing the central U.S. through the day, is expected to reach a Lower Great Lakes to Lower Mississippi Valley to Texas position overnight. Meanwhile, the height falls associated with this trough into the southeastern U.S. may support frontal wave development along the remnant baroclinic zone likely to be lingering over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast area. While still uncertain, this low may shift across the Southeast Friday, reaching the eastern Carolinas vicinity by Sunday morning. While it is not out of the question that -- with this front/low marking the northward extent of tropical low-level air, that low-end severe risk could evolve overnight. However, this scenario is uncertain, and would seem likely to remain limited in terms of significance. Day 6, some negative tilt of the upper trough is expected as it advances across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes area, with models suggesting evolution into a closed low over the eastern Ontario vicinity with time. Meanwhile, the advancing cold front is progged to begin to overtake the remnant baroclinic zone and frontal wave, with the combined front to linger near -- and eventually move off -- the Atlantic Seaboard as the frontal low moves toward/into southern New England overnight. Again, some severe potential may manifest ahead of the consolidating surface front, but at this time, models suggest that destabilization will remain largely just offshore. By Sunday (Day 7) and continuing through the end of the period, model divergence increases -- with evolution/positioning of the deepening closed low over eastern NOAM, and -- as a result, the upstream flow pattern over the western half of the country. Overall severe risk would appear to be low overall however, with general ridging likely over the western half of the country. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models have come into a bit better agreement with each other, through late next week, with respect to their handling of the large-scale features. Day 4 (Thursday), the upper trough crossing central portions of Canada and the north-central U.S. is progged to continue digging southeastward -- reaching a roughly upper Mississippi Valley to Mid-Missouri Valley position by Friday morning. As this occurs, a corresponding eastward/southward advance of a surface cold front will occur, crossing the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and drifting as far south as the central Plains overnight. Preceding the front, limited low-level moisture is expected, with Gulf moisture remaining restricted to the southern-tier states. Thus, while a few strong/severe storms may evolve within a southern Upper Great Lakes to central Plains corridor, potential for a more widespread severe event appears limited at this time. Day 5 (Friday), a continued southeastward advance/amplification of the upper trough is anticipated, shifting across the Great Lakes and Midwest through the day, and with cyclonic flow surrounding the trough to encompass the entire eastern half of the country by Saturday morning. The associated cold front -- crossing the central U.S. through the day, is expected to reach a Lower Great Lakes to Lower Mississippi Valley to Texas position overnight. Meanwhile, the height falls associated with this trough into the southeastern U.S. may support frontal wave development along the remnant baroclinic zone likely to be lingering over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast area. While still uncertain, this low may shift across the Southeast Friday, reaching the eastern Carolinas vicinity by Sunday morning. While it is not out of the question that -- with this front/low marking the northward extent of tropical low-level air, that low-end severe risk could evolve overnight. However, this scenario is uncertain, and would seem likely to remain limited in terms of significance. Day 6, some negative tilt of the upper trough is expected as it advances across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes area, with models suggesting evolution into a closed low over the eastern Ontario vicinity with time. Meanwhile, the advancing cold front is progged to begin to overtake the remnant baroclinic zone and frontal wave, with the combined front to linger near -- and eventually move off -- the Atlantic Seaboard as the frontal low moves toward/into southern New England overnight. Again, some severe potential may manifest ahead of the consolidating surface front, but at this time, models suggest that destabilization will remain largely just offshore. By Sunday (Day 7) and continuing through the end of the period, model divergence increases -- with evolution/positioning of the deepening closed low over eastern NOAM, and -- as a result, the upstream flow pattern over the western half of the country. Overall severe risk would appear to be low overall however, with general ridging likely over the western half of the country. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models have come into a bit better agreement with each other, through late next week, with respect to their handling of the large-scale features. Day 4 (Thursday), the upper trough crossing central portions of Canada and the north-central U.S. is progged to continue digging southeastward -- reaching a roughly upper Mississippi Valley to Mid-Missouri Valley position by Friday morning. As this occurs, a corresponding eastward/southward advance of a surface cold front will occur, crossing the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and drifting as far south as the central Plains overnight. Preceding the front, limited low-level moisture is expected, with Gulf moisture remaining restricted to the southern-tier states. Thus, while a few strong/severe storms may evolve within a southern Upper Great Lakes to central Plains corridor, potential for a more widespread severe event appears limited at this time. Day 5 (Friday), a continued southeastward advance/amplification of the upper trough is anticipated, shifting across the Great Lakes and Midwest through the day, and with cyclonic flow surrounding the trough to encompass the entire eastern half of the country by Saturday morning. The associated cold front -- crossing the central U.S. through the day, is expected to reach a Lower Great Lakes to Lower Mississippi Valley to Texas position overnight. Meanwhile, the height falls associated with this trough into the southeastern U.S. may support frontal wave development along the remnant baroclinic zone likely to be lingering over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast area. While still uncertain, this low may shift across the Southeast Friday, reaching the eastern Carolinas vicinity by Sunday morning. While it is not out of the question that -- with this front/low marking the northward extent of tropical low-level air, that low-end severe risk could evolve overnight. However, this scenario is uncertain, and would seem likely to remain limited in terms of significance. Day 6, some negative tilt of the upper trough is expected as it advances across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes area, with models suggesting evolution into a closed low over the eastern Ontario vicinity with time. Meanwhile, the advancing cold front is progged to begin to overtake the remnant baroclinic zone and frontal wave, with the combined front to linger near -- and eventually move off -- the Atlantic Seaboard as the frontal low moves toward/into southern New England overnight. Again, some severe potential may manifest ahead of the consolidating surface front, but at this time, models suggest that destabilization will remain largely just offshore. By Sunday (Day 7) and continuing through the end of the period, model divergence increases -- with evolution/positioning of the deepening closed low over eastern NOAM, and -- as a result, the upstream flow pattern over the western half of the country. Overall severe risk would appear to be low overall however, with general ridging likely over the western half of the country. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models have come into a bit better agreement with each other, through late next week, with respect to their handling of the large-scale features. Day 4 (Thursday), the upper trough crossing central portions of Canada and the north-central U.S. is progged to continue digging southeastward -- reaching a roughly upper Mississippi Valley to Mid-Missouri Valley position by Friday morning. As this occurs, a corresponding eastward/southward advance of a surface cold front will occur, crossing the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and drifting as far south as the central Plains overnight. Preceding the front, limited low-level moisture is expected, with Gulf moisture remaining restricted to the southern-tier states. Thus, while a few strong/severe storms may evolve within a southern Upper Great Lakes to central Plains corridor, potential for a more widespread severe event appears limited at this time. Day 5 (Friday), a continued southeastward advance/amplification of the upper trough is anticipated, shifting across the Great Lakes and Midwest through the day, and with cyclonic flow surrounding the trough to encompass the entire eastern half of the country by Saturday morning. The associated cold front -- crossing the central U.S. through the day, is expected to reach a Lower Great Lakes to Lower Mississippi Valley to Texas position overnight. Meanwhile, the height falls associated with this trough into the southeastern U.S. may support frontal wave development along the remnant baroclinic zone likely to be lingering over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast area. While still uncertain, this low may shift across the Southeast Friday, reaching the eastern Carolinas vicinity by Sunday morning. While it is not out of the question that -- with this front/low marking the northward extent of tropical low-level air, that low-end severe risk could evolve overnight. However, this scenario is uncertain, and would seem likely to remain limited in terms of significance. Day 6, some negative tilt of the upper trough is expected as it advances across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes area, with models suggesting evolution into a closed low over the eastern Ontario vicinity with time. Meanwhile, the advancing cold front is progged to begin to overtake the remnant baroclinic zone and frontal wave, with the combined front to linger near -- and eventually move off -- the Atlantic Seaboard as the frontal low moves toward/into southern New England overnight. Again, some severe potential may manifest ahead of the consolidating surface front, but at this time, models suggest that destabilization will remain largely just offshore. By Sunday (Day 7) and continuing through the end of the period, model divergence increases -- with evolution/positioning of the deepening closed low over eastern NOAM, and -- as a result, the upstream flow pattern over the western half of the country. Overall severe risk would appear to be low overall however, with general ridging likely over the western half of the country. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models have come into a bit better agreement with each other, through late next week, with respect to their handling of the large-scale features. Day 4 (Thursday), the upper trough crossing central portions of Canada and the north-central U.S. is progged to continue digging southeastward -- reaching a roughly upper Mississippi Valley to Mid-Missouri Valley position by Friday morning. As this occurs, a corresponding eastward/southward advance of a surface cold front will occur, crossing the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and drifting as far south as the central Plains overnight. Preceding the front, limited low-level moisture is expected, with Gulf moisture remaining restricted to the southern-tier states. Thus, while a few strong/severe storms may evolve within a southern Upper Great Lakes to central Plains corridor, potential for a more widespread severe event appears limited at this time. Day 5 (Friday), a continued southeastward advance/amplification of the upper trough is anticipated, shifting across the Great Lakes and Midwest through the day, and with cyclonic flow surrounding the trough to encompass the entire eastern half of the country by Saturday morning. The associated cold front -- crossing the central U.S. through the day, is expected to reach a Lower Great Lakes to Lower Mississippi Valley to Texas position overnight. Meanwhile, the height falls associated with this trough into the southeastern U.S. may support frontal wave development along the remnant baroclinic zone likely to be lingering over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast area. While still uncertain, this low may shift across the Southeast Friday, reaching the eastern Carolinas vicinity by Sunday morning. While it is not out of the question that -- with this front/low marking the northward extent of tropical low-level air, that low-end severe risk could evolve overnight. However, this scenario is uncertain, and would seem likely to remain limited in terms of significance. Day 6, some negative tilt of the upper trough is expected as it advances across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes area, with models suggesting evolution into a closed low over the eastern Ontario vicinity with time. Meanwhile, the advancing cold front is progged to begin to overtake the remnant baroclinic zone and frontal wave, with the combined front to linger near -- and eventually move off -- the Atlantic Seaboard as the frontal low moves toward/into southern New England overnight. Again, some severe potential may manifest ahead of the consolidating surface front, but at this time, models suggest that destabilization will remain largely just offshore. By Sunday (Day 7) and continuing through the end of the period, model divergence increases -- with evolution/positioning of the deepening closed low over eastern NOAM, and -- as a result, the upstream flow pattern over the western half of the country. Overall severe risk would appear to be low overall however, with general ridging likely over the western half of the country. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Risk for isolated strong to severe storms -- capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds -- will be possible from parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains Wednesday/Wednesday night. Marginal hail with stronger storms may also occur across the northern Plains region. ...Synopsis... The main upper feature of interest with respect to convective/local severe risk will be a short-wave trough initially situated from the northern Intermountain region to the Great Basin. As this feature advances eastward toward -- and eventually into -- the northern and central Plains, it is expected to gradually phase with larger-scale trough digging southeastward into the Canadian Prairie. This will result in slow amplification of the upper pattern over Canada and the adjacent northern half of the U.S. through Thursday morning. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to linger in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico, at the southern fringe of a drier Continental airmass represented by a large area of high pressure over the eastern and into the central states. Meanwhile, a second cold front -- ahead of the evolving northern U.S. upper trough -- will shift eastward across the northern Plains and southward into the central Plains through the period. By Thursday morning, the front should extend from Minnesota southwestward to the Far West Texas vicinity. ...Northern Plains into parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado... Diurnal heating in the wake of the advancing cold front/beneath the upper trough will result in modest destabilization across portions of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado during the afternoon -- resulting in development of isolated thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies supporting locally stronger updrafts, and a deep mixed layer suggesting some evaporative enhancement potential in the sub-cloud layer, a few instances of strong/severe outflow winds are expected. Farther east, destabilization near/ahead of the advancing from should support isolated storm by late afternoon, and continuing into the evening hours. With shear becoming sufficient for organized updrafts, a few stronger storms during the afternoon and evening should prove capable of producing strong/gusty winds and marginal hail, before nocturnally weakening. ..Goss.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Risk for isolated strong to severe storms -- capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds -- will be possible from parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains Wednesday/Wednesday night. Marginal hail with stronger storms may also occur across the northern Plains region. ...Synopsis... The main upper feature of interest with respect to convective/local severe risk will be a short-wave trough initially situated from the northern Intermountain region to the Great Basin. As this feature advances eastward toward -- and eventually into -- the northern and central Plains, it is expected to gradually phase with larger-scale trough digging southeastward into the Canadian Prairie. This will result in slow amplification of the upper pattern over Canada and the adjacent northern half of the U.S. through Thursday morning. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to linger in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico, at the southern fringe of a drier Continental airmass represented by a large area of high pressure over the eastern and into the central states. Meanwhile, a second cold front -- ahead of the evolving northern U.S. upper trough -- will shift eastward across the northern Plains and southward into the central Plains through the period. By Thursday morning, the front should extend from Minnesota southwestward to the Far West Texas vicinity. ...Northern Plains into parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado... Diurnal heating in the wake of the advancing cold front/beneath the upper trough will result in modest destabilization across portions of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado during the afternoon -- resulting in development of isolated thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies supporting locally stronger updrafts, and a deep mixed layer suggesting some evaporative enhancement potential in the sub-cloud layer, a few instances of strong/severe outflow winds are expected. Farther east, destabilization near/ahead of the advancing from should support isolated storm by late afternoon, and continuing into the evening hours. With shear becoming sufficient for organized updrafts, a few stronger storms during the afternoon and evening should prove capable of producing strong/gusty winds and marginal hail, before nocturnally weakening. ..Goss.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Risk for isolated strong to severe storms -- capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds -- will be possible from parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains Wednesday/Wednesday night. Marginal hail with stronger storms may also occur across the northern Plains region. ...Synopsis... The main upper feature of interest with respect to convective/local severe risk will be a short-wave trough initially situated from the northern Intermountain region to the Great Basin. As this feature advances eastward toward -- and eventually into -- the northern and central Plains, it is expected to gradually phase with larger-scale trough digging southeastward into the Canadian Prairie. This will result in slow amplification of the upper pattern over Canada and the adjacent northern half of the U.S. through Thursday morning. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to linger in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico, at the southern fringe of a drier Continental airmass represented by a large area of high pressure over the eastern and into the central states. Meanwhile, a second cold front -- ahead of the evolving northern U.S. upper trough -- will shift eastward across the northern Plains and southward into the central Plains through the period. By Thursday morning, the front should extend from Minnesota southwestward to the Far West Texas vicinity. ...Northern Plains into parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado... Diurnal heating in the wake of the advancing cold front/beneath the upper trough will result in modest destabilization across portions of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado during the afternoon -- resulting in development of isolated thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies supporting locally stronger updrafts, and a deep mixed layer suggesting some evaporative enhancement potential in the sub-cloud layer, a few instances of strong/severe outflow winds are expected. Farther east, destabilization near/ahead of the advancing from should support isolated storm by late afternoon, and continuing into the evening hours. With shear becoming sufficient for organized updrafts, a few stronger storms during the afternoon and evening should prove capable of producing strong/gusty winds and marginal hail, before nocturnally weakening. ..Goss.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Risk for isolated strong to severe storms -- capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds -- will be possible from parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains Wednesday/Wednesday night. Marginal hail with stronger storms may also occur across the northern Plains region. ...Synopsis... The main upper feature of interest with respect to convective/local severe risk will be a short-wave trough initially situated from the northern Intermountain region to the Great Basin. As this feature advances eastward toward -- and eventually into -- the northern and central Plains, it is expected to gradually phase with larger-scale trough digging southeastward into the Canadian Prairie. This will result in slow amplification of the upper pattern over Canada and the adjacent northern half of the U.S. through Thursday morning. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to linger in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico, at the southern fringe of a drier Continental airmass represented by a large area of high pressure over the eastern and into the central states. Meanwhile, a second cold front -- ahead of the evolving northern U.S. upper trough -- will shift eastward across the northern Plains and southward into the central Plains through the period. By Thursday morning, the front should extend from Minnesota southwestward to the Far West Texas vicinity. ...Northern Plains into parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado... Diurnal heating in the wake of the advancing cold front/beneath the upper trough will result in modest destabilization across portions of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado during the afternoon -- resulting in development of isolated thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies supporting locally stronger updrafts, and a deep mixed layer suggesting some evaporative enhancement potential in the sub-cloud layer, a few instances of strong/severe outflow winds are expected. Farther east, destabilization near/ahead of the advancing from should support isolated storm by late afternoon, and continuing into the evening hours. With shear becoming sufficient for organized updrafts, a few stronger storms during the afternoon and evening should prove capable of producing strong/gusty winds and marginal hail, before nocturnally weakening. ..Goss.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Risk for isolated strong to severe storms -- capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds -- will be possible from parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains Wednesday/Wednesday night. Marginal hail with stronger storms may also occur across the northern Plains region. ...Synopsis... The main upper feature of interest with respect to convective/local severe risk will be a short-wave trough initially situated from the northern Intermountain region to the Great Basin. As this feature advances eastward toward -- and eventually into -- the northern and central Plains, it is expected to gradually phase with larger-scale trough digging southeastward into the Canadian Prairie. This will result in slow amplification of the upper pattern over Canada and the adjacent northern half of the U.S. through Thursday morning. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to linger in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico, at the southern fringe of a drier Continental airmass represented by a large area of high pressure over the eastern and into the central states. Meanwhile, a second cold front -- ahead of the evolving northern U.S. upper trough -- will shift eastward across the northern Plains and southward into the central Plains through the period. By Thursday morning, the front should extend from Minnesota southwestward to the Far West Texas vicinity. ...Northern Plains into parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado... Diurnal heating in the wake of the advancing cold front/beneath the upper trough will result in modest destabilization across portions of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado during the afternoon -- resulting in development of isolated thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies supporting locally stronger updrafts, and a deep mixed layer suggesting some evaporative enhancement potential in the sub-cloud layer, a few instances of strong/severe outflow winds are expected. Farther east, destabilization near/ahead of the advancing from should support isolated storm by late afternoon, and continuing into the evening hours. With shear becoming sufficient for organized updrafts, a few stronger storms during the afternoon and evening should prove capable of producing strong/gusty winds and marginal hail, before nocturnally weakening. ..Goss.. 09/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday as an upper wave (currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast) translates east across the northern Rockies. However, fire weather conditions are not expected to be as intense or widespread as compared to Monday across on either side of the continental divide. ...Nevada into Idaho... Portions of northeast NV and central ID are forecast to remain within the dry slot of the maturing upper-level low. This will maintain clear skies/warm conditions across the region, but will also support broad scale subsidence/drying and windy conditions across the region. Regional orographic influences - namely the Snake River Plain in eastern ID as well as the Independence and Ruby mountains of northeast NV, will augment the dry/windy conditions and should support several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also anticipated across northern ID, MT, and WY by late afternoon as the low shifts east. While a few dry thunderstorms are possible based on forecast thermal profiles, recent ensemble guidance shows a stronger signal for wetting rainfall compared to Monday, limiting confidence in the dry-lightning threat. ...Central/Northern Plains... A lee trough is expected to become established over the next 24 hours, but will see more substantial deepening through Tuesday afternoon amid increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave. This will result in not only strengthening westerly downslope flow across eastern WY, but will also bolster pressure gradient winds across central NE into SD. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in maintaining at least a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions with 15-20 mph winds and RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Persistent southerly flow overnight Monday into Tuesday will support some degree of moisture return into the Plains, which is expected to limit the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. That said, guidance typically struggles to accurately capture boundary-layer mixing/RH reductions in such return flow regimes, and fire weather conditions may be more widespread across NE/SD than currently depicted. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday as an upper wave (currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast) translates east across the northern Rockies. However, fire weather conditions are not expected to be as intense or widespread as compared to Monday across on either side of the continental divide. ...Nevada into Idaho... Portions of northeast NV and central ID are forecast to remain within the dry slot of the maturing upper-level low. This will maintain clear skies/warm conditions across the region, but will also support broad scale subsidence/drying and windy conditions across the region. Regional orographic influences - namely the Snake River Plain in eastern ID as well as the Independence and Ruby mountains of northeast NV, will augment the dry/windy conditions and should support several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also anticipated across northern ID, MT, and WY by late afternoon as the low shifts east. While a few dry thunderstorms are possible based on forecast thermal profiles, recent ensemble guidance shows a stronger signal for wetting rainfall compared to Monday, limiting confidence in the dry-lightning threat. ...Central/Northern Plains... A lee trough is expected to become established over the next 24 hours, but will see more substantial deepening through Tuesday afternoon amid increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave. This will result in not only strengthening westerly downslope flow across eastern WY, but will also bolster pressure gradient winds across central NE into SD. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in maintaining at least a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions with 15-20 mph winds and RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Persistent southerly flow overnight Monday into Tuesday will support some degree of moisture return into the Plains, which is expected to limit the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. That said, guidance typically struggles to accurately capture boundary-layer mixing/RH reductions in such return flow regimes, and fire weather conditions may be more widespread across NE/SD than currently depicted. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday as an upper wave (currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast) translates east across the northern Rockies. However, fire weather conditions are not expected to be as intense or widespread as compared to Monday across on either side of the continental divide. ...Nevada into Idaho... Portions of northeast NV and central ID are forecast to remain within the dry slot of the maturing upper-level low. This will maintain clear skies/warm conditions across the region, but will also support broad scale subsidence/drying and windy conditions across the region. Regional orographic influences - namely the Snake River Plain in eastern ID as well as the Independence and Ruby mountains of northeast NV, will augment the dry/windy conditions and should support several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also anticipated across northern ID, MT, and WY by late afternoon as the low shifts east. While a few dry thunderstorms are possible based on forecast thermal profiles, recent ensemble guidance shows a stronger signal for wetting rainfall compared to Monday, limiting confidence in the dry-lightning threat. ...Central/Northern Plains... A lee trough is expected to become established over the next 24 hours, but will see more substantial deepening through Tuesday afternoon amid increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave. This will result in not only strengthening westerly downslope flow across eastern WY, but will also bolster pressure gradient winds across central NE into SD. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in maintaining at least a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions with 15-20 mph winds and RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Persistent southerly flow overnight Monday into Tuesday will support some degree of moisture return into the Plains, which is expected to limit the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. That said, guidance typically struggles to accurately capture boundary-layer mixing/RH reductions in such return flow regimes, and fire weather conditions may be more widespread across NE/SD than currently depicted. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday as an upper wave (currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast) translates east across the northern Rockies. However, fire weather conditions are not expected to be as intense or widespread as compared to Monday across on either side of the continental divide. ...Nevada into Idaho... Portions of northeast NV and central ID are forecast to remain within the dry slot of the maturing upper-level low. This will maintain clear skies/warm conditions across the region, but will also support broad scale subsidence/drying and windy conditions across the region. Regional orographic influences - namely the Snake River Plain in eastern ID as well as the Independence and Ruby mountains of northeast NV, will augment the dry/windy conditions and should support several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also anticipated across northern ID, MT, and WY by late afternoon as the low shifts east. While a few dry thunderstorms are possible based on forecast thermal profiles, recent ensemble guidance shows a stronger signal for wetting rainfall compared to Monday, limiting confidence in the dry-lightning threat. ...Central/Northern Plains... A lee trough is expected to become established over the next 24 hours, but will see more substantial deepening through Tuesday afternoon amid increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave. This will result in not only strengthening westerly downslope flow across eastern WY, but will also bolster pressure gradient winds across central NE into SD. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in maintaining at least a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions with 15-20 mph winds and RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Persistent southerly flow overnight Monday into Tuesday will support some degree of moisture return into the Plains, which is expected to limit the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. That said, guidance typically struggles to accurately capture boundary-layer mixing/RH reductions in such return flow regimes, and fire weather conditions may be more widespread across NE/SD than currently depicted. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday as an upper wave (currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast) translates east across the northern Rockies. However, fire weather conditions are not expected to be as intense or widespread as compared to Monday across on either side of the continental divide. ...Nevada into Idaho... Portions of northeast NV and central ID are forecast to remain within the dry slot of the maturing upper-level low. This will maintain clear skies/warm conditions across the region, but will also support broad scale subsidence/drying and windy conditions across the region. Regional orographic influences - namely the Snake River Plain in eastern ID as well as the Independence and Ruby mountains of northeast NV, will augment the dry/windy conditions and should support several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also anticipated across northern ID, MT, and WY by late afternoon as the low shifts east. While a few dry thunderstorms are possible based on forecast thermal profiles, recent ensemble guidance shows a stronger signal for wetting rainfall compared to Monday, limiting confidence in the dry-lightning threat. ...Central/Northern Plains... A lee trough is expected to become established over the next 24 hours, but will see more substantial deepening through Tuesday afternoon amid increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave. This will result in not only strengthening westerly downslope flow across eastern WY, but will also bolster pressure gradient winds across central NE into SD. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in maintaining at least a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions with 15-20 mph winds and RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Persistent southerly flow overnight Monday into Tuesday will support some degree of moisture return into the Plains, which is expected to limit the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. That said, guidance typically struggles to accurately capture boundary-layer mixing/RH reductions in such return flow regimes, and fire weather conditions may be more widespread across NE/SD than currently depicted. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday as an upper wave (currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast) translates east across the northern Rockies. However, fire weather conditions are not expected to be as intense or widespread as compared to Monday across on either side of the continental divide. ...Nevada into Idaho... Portions of northeast NV and central ID are forecast to remain within the dry slot of the maturing upper-level low. This will maintain clear skies/warm conditions across the region, but will also support broad scale subsidence/drying and windy conditions across the region. Regional orographic influences - namely the Snake River Plain in eastern ID as well as the Independence and Ruby mountains of northeast NV, will augment the dry/windy conditions and should support several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also anticipated across northern ID, MT, and WY by late afternoon as the low shifts east. While a few dry thunderstorms are possible based on forecast thermal profiles, recent ensemble guidance shows a stronger signal for wetting rainfall compared to Monday, limiting confidence in the dry-lightning threat. ...Central/Northern Plains... A lee trough is expected to become established over the next 24 hours, but will see more substantial deepening through Tuesday afternoon amid increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave. This will result in not only strengthening westerly downslope flow across eastern WY, but will also bolster pressure gradient winds across central NE into SD. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in maintaining at least a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions with 15-20 mph winds and RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Persistent southerly flow overnight Monday into Tuesday will support some degree of moisture return into the Plains, which is expected to limit the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. That said, guidance typically struggles to accurately capture boundary-layer mixing/RH reductions in such return flow regimes, and fire weather conditions may be more widespread across NE/SD than currently depicted. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN OREGON INTO FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO...NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... An active fire weather day is anticipated across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns across the West will be associated with a progressive upper wave currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast, which is forecast to migrate into the interior Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, strengthening low-level winds will support dry/windy conditions, and lift ahead of the wave will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To the east, flow across the northern to central Rockies is forecast to strengthen slightly within the apex of an upper ridge. This will result in modest surface pressure falls along the High Plains, which when juxtaposed with a building surface high over the Midwest will yield strong southerly winds and dry conditions. Fuels across both regions remain very dry (ERCs at or above the 90th percentile) after multiple days of dry conditions, which will support the fire weather concerns. ...Pacific Northwest/Great Basin... Regional VWPs along the West Coast are beginning to observe the influence of the approaching wave with winds in the lowest few kilometers slowly strengthening since 00 UTC. Further intensification of the low-level wind field is anticipated, which will strengthen downslope flow off the central to northern Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions are already in place and will be maintained within the augmented downslope regime. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for afternoon RH values to fall into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. The strongest winds (and highest probability for sustained critical conditions) are expected from northeast CA into southern OR and far northwest NV as the mid-level jet max passes overhead around peak heating. Over the past several days, a plume of monsoonal moisture has been tracked from southern AZ into northern NV and central to eastern OR. The 00 UTC MFR sounding sampled this air mass well, which is characterized by sufficient mid-level moisture to support weak convection, but a very dry boundary layer favorable for dry thunderstorms. Over the past two days, thunderstorms within this air mass across the Great Basin have been predominantly dry, and are expected to mainly be dry once again today for much of the region (one exception is from the Blue Mountains in northeast OR to the Salmon River Mountains in central ID where orographic ascent should support more prolonged convection with a higher probability for wetting rainfall). Stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent should result in greater thunderstorm coverage compared to previous days, warranting a scattered dry thunderstorm risk area from eastern OR into ID, northeast NV, and far northwest UT where latest CAM guidance shows the best convective signal. ...High Plains... A recent frontal intrusion into the Plains/Midwest has shunted seasonally rich moisture southward into the southern Plains. A strong surface high in the wake of the front will shift east through the day concurrent with the deepening of a weak lee trough. A dry return flow regime will become established through the day as winds become more southerly. Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions show a fairly strong signal for 20-25 mph winds (gusting to 35 mph) across western NE into western SD with RH values falling into the low 20s to teens. Consequently, confidence in sustained critical conditions over an appreciable area has increased enough to warrant introducing a Critical risk area. ..Moore.. 09/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more