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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may produce hail and gusty winds over parts of eastern Idaho, southwest Montana, and western Wyoming on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move east across ID into MT and WY, weakening during that time. Cooling aloft will still accompany this wave, with 500 mb wind speeds around 30-35 kt. Meanwhile, a larger upper trough will quickly exit the Northeast, with height rises over the Great Lakes and upper MS Valley. At the surface, a prominent high will affect much of the eastern CONUS, providing relatively stable conditions. A trough will develop during the afternoon over the northern High Plains, with the primary cold front affecting parts of the northern Rockies in association with the a shortwave trough moving across ID, MT, and WY. ...ID into MT and WY... Cool temperatures aloft will support early/ongoing showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday, with increasing coverage as heating occurs into parts of eastern ID, southwest MT and western WY. As the trough progresses east, scattered strong to marginally severe storms may develop as instability increases with heating. Steeper lapse rates aloft as well as elongated hodographs with effective deep-layer shear around 40 kt will favor cellular storm mode with hail, perhaps to severe levels. Veering winds with height and perhaps 100 m2/s2 SRH may support a supercell or two as well. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may produce hail and gusty winds over parts of eastern Idaho, southwest Montana, and western Wyoming on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move east across ID into MT and WY, weakening during that time. Cooling aloft will still accompany this wave, with 500 mb wind speeds around 30-35 kt. Meanwhile, a larger upper trough will quickly exit the Northeast, with height rises over the Great Lakes and upper MS Valley. At the surface, a prominent high will affect much of the eastern CONUS, providing relatively stable conditions. A trough will develop during the afternoon over the northern High Plains, with the primary cold front affecting parts of the northern Rockies in association with the a shortwave trough moving across ID, MT, and WY. ...ID into MT and WY... Cool temperatures aloft will support early/ongoing showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday, with increasing coverage as heating occurs into parts of eastern ID, southwest MT and western WY. As the trough progresses east, scattered strong to marginally severe storms may develop as instability increases with heating. Steeper lapse rates aloft as well as elongated hodographs with effective deep-layer shear around 40 kt will favor cellular storm mode with hail, perhaps to severe levels. Veering winds with height and perhaps 100 m2/s2 SRH may support a supercell or two as well. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

MD 2041 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Areas affected...parts of western and northern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011754Z - 011930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A broken line of storms may produce occasional gusty wind this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Inhibition has been mostly eroded across western and northern New York as temperatures have warmed to the upper 70s to low 80s with mid 60s dewpoints. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop along a cold front once it moves east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Storms may be not be that deep given the relatively shallow thermodynamic profile shown by the RAP forecast soundings. However, relatively strong flow through the column and a well-mixed boundary layer may support efficient transport of gusty winds to the surface within these storms. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible through the afternoon with this threat waning near sunset. ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43357915 43497832 43517714 43907704 44207653 44667583 45167503 45587378 45557370 45137334 44107369 42977513 42497697 42337806 42427885 42657931 43357915 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011708
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more