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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MWL TO 30 NNE MWL TO 30 WSW ADM TO 45 S CQB TO 30 WNW TUL TO 30 SW CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203 ..MOORE..11/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-061-063-069-077-079- 085-089-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-111-115-121-123-127-131-133- 135-143-145-147-041940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-143-147-159-181-221-223-231-251-257- Read more

MD 2203 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 704... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and north-central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 704... Valid 041812Z - 041915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing across north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed east of I-35 in central Oklahoma and is slowly drifting east. These storms are showing some sign of severe intensity and occasional rotation, but they are struggling to move ahead of the boundary. However, visible satellite is showing signs of some development ahead of the boundary across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. This development will likely pose a greater severe weather threat with supercells capable of large hail, severe wind and several tornadoes (some which may be strong) through the afternoon hours. Currently, flow is southerly or south-southwesterly across the warm sector, but is expected to back to 160-170 by later this afternoon with the deepening cyclone and a strengthening low-level jet. Therefore, the greatest tornado threat will be with any discrete supercells after 21Z across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. ..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32139854 34659721 35369692 36379685 36969624 36999428 36409421 34239461 32729554 31999655 31979794 32139854 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 4 17:58:31 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower MS. ...East TX/Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible, particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting upper shortwave trough. ...WI... Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential, at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally strong gusts appears possible. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower MS. ...East TX/Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible, particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting upper shortwave trough. ...WI... Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential, at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally strong gusts appears possible. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower MS. ...East TX/Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible, particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting upper shortwave trough. ...WI... Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential, at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally strong gusts appears possible. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower MS. ...East TX/Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible, particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting upper shortwave trough. ...WI... Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential, at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally strong gusts appears possible. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower MS. ...East TX/Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible, particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting upper shortwave trough. ...WI... Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential, at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally strong gusts appears possible. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more