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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

MD 2201 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwest/South-Central/Central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041101Z - 041300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts is increasing across central Oklahoma, with some increase in the threat across southwest Oklahoma and adjacent far northwest Texas as well. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low between SNK and SWW in the Low Rolling Plains region of TX. A warm front extends northeastward from this low through northwest TX and south-central OK into southeast OK. Location of this front is roughly demarcated by the 70 deg F isotherm. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this boundary from far northwest TX into southwest OK, supported by both low-level warm-air advection and increasing large-scale ascent (attendant to the approaching shortwave trough). A few of the cells over west-central/southwest OK have become better organized over the past hour or so, with the cell in Tillman County exhibiting a notable forward surge while also producing a 55 kt gust at FDR. The threat for damaging gusts will continue with this developing line as it continues northeastward into central OK. The tornado threat should be limited by the low buoyancy and persisting modest convective inhibition. That being said, if this line is able to become surface-based, or even near-surface-based, there is enough low-level shear to promote circulations embedded within the line. While not evident at the moment, a similar evolution, where the elevated storms become organized into a more coherent line, is also possible farther south across far northwest TX. Overall convective trends will be monitored for a potential watch or watches across this region. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33060030 33800046 35769829 35969648 34619633 33819842 33060030 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will occur across TX on D4/Thursday in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains to Mid-MO Valley will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. This suggests convective development will primarily be elevated near and west of the inverted trough. To its east, a mesoscale corridor of at least low-probability severe should emerge across a part of west TX in later outlooks. Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains on D5-6/Friday-Saturday. This overall synoptic pattern and related instability/shear combinations appear to be on the lower-end spectrum for the OK/TX/AR/LA vicinity. But daily bouts of mesoscale-driven severe risk are plausible. In the wake of this wave, a lack of dry continental air intruding into the western Gulf may yield a broader warm-moist sector beyond D8. Both 00Z ensemble and deterministic guidance depict above-normal consistency with indications of an amplifying upper trough around the Rockies vicinity on D9/Tuesday. Finally, the forecast evolution of PTC 18 into the Gulf later this week will bear monitoring for a potential TC-tornado threat along some portion of the coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will occur across TX on D4/Thursday in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains to Mid-MO Valley will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. This suggests convective development will primarily be elevated near and west of the inverted trough. To its east, a mesoscale corridor of at least low-probability severe should emerge across a part of west TX in later outlooks. Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains on D5-6/Friday-Saturday. This overall synoptic pattern and related instability/shear combinations appear to be on the lower-end spectrum for the OK/TX/AR/LA vicinity. But daily bouts of mesoscale-driven severe risk are plausible. In the wake of this wave, a lack of dry continental air intruding into the western Gulf may yield a broader warm-moist sector beyond D8. Both 00Z ensemble and deterministic guidance depict above-normal consistency with indications of an amplifying upper trough around the Rockies vicinity on D9/Tuesday. Finally, the forecast evolution of PTC 18 into the Gulf later this week will bear monitoring for a potential TC-tornado threat along some portion of the coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will occur across TX on D4/Thursday in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains to Mid-MO Valley will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. This suggests convective development will primarily be elevated near and west of the inverted trough. To its east, a mesoscale corridor of at least low-probability severe should emerge across a part of west TX in later outlooks. Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains on D5-6/Friday-Saturday. This overall synoptic pattern and related instability/shear combinations appear to be on the lower-end spectrum for the OK/TX/AR/LA vicinity. But daily bouts of mesoscale-driven severe risk are plausible. In the wake of this wave, a lack of dry continental air intruding into the western Gulf may yield a broader warm-moist sector beyond D8. Both 00Z ensemble and deterministic guidance depict above-normal consistency with indications of an amplifying upper trough around the Rockies vicinity on D9/Tuesday. Finally, the forecast evolution of PTC 18 into the Gulf later this week will bear monitoring for a potential TC-tornado threat along some portion of the coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will occur across TX on D4/Thursday in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains to Mid-MO Valley will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. This suggests convective development will primarily be elevated near and west of the inverted trough. To its east, a mesoscale corridor of at least low-probability severe should emerge across a part of west TX in later outlooks. Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains on D5-6/Friday-Saturday. This overall synoptic pattern and related instability/shear combinations appear to be on the lower-end spectrum for the OK/TX/AR/LA vicinity. But daily bouts of mesoscale-driven severe risk are plausible. In the wake of this wave, a lack of dry continental air intruding into the western Gulf may yield a broader warm-moist sector beyond D8. Both 00Z ensemble and deterministic guidance depict above-normal consistency with indications of an amplifying upper trough around the Rockies vicinity on D9/Tuesday. Finally, the forecast evolution of PTC 18 into the Gulf later this week will bear monitoring for a potential TC-tornado threat along some portion of the coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will occur across TX on D4/Thursday in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains to Mid-MO Valley will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. This suggests convective development will primarily be elevated near and west of the inverted trough. To its east, a mesoscale corridor of at least low-probability severe should emerge across a part of west TX in later outlooks. Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains on D5-6/Friday-Saturday. This overall synoptic pattern and related instability/shear combinations appear to be on the lower-end spectrum for the OK/TX/AR/LA vicinity. But daily bouts of mesoscale-driven severe risk are plausible. In the wake of this wave, a lack of dry continental air intruding into the western Gulf may yield a broader warm-moist sector beyond D8. Both 00Z ensemble and deterministic guidance depict above-normal consistency with indications of an amplifying upper trough around the Rockies vicinity on D9/Tuesday. Finally, the forecast evolution of PTC 18 into the Gulf later this week will bear monitoring for a potential TC-tornado threat along some portion of the coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will occur across TX on D4/Thursday in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains to Mid-MO Valley will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. This suggests convective development will primarily be elevated near and west of the inverted trough. To its east, a mesoscale corridor of at least low-probability severe should emerge across a part of west TX in later outlooks. Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains on D5-6/Friday-Saturday. This overall synoptic pattern and related instability/shear combinations appear to be on the lower-end spectrum for the OK/TX/AR/LA vicinity. But daily bouts of mesoscale-driven severe risk are plausible. In the wake of this wave, a lack of dry continental air intruding into the western Gulf may yield a broader warm-moist sector beyond D8. Both 00Z ensemble and deterministic guidance depict above-normal consistency with indications of an amplifying upper trough around the Rockies vicinity on D9/Tuesday. Finally, the forecast evolution of PTC 18 into the Gulf later this week will bear monitoring for a potential TC-tornado threat along some portion of the coast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more