SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge over the West Coast will favor strong surface ridging over the Great Basin, before deamplifying into the overnight hours. As a result, a continued tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH across portions of southern California during the morning and early afternoon hours. Gusts upwards of 60 mph (locally higher) will briefly overlap around 20 percent RH over the typical wind-prone mountains and valleys -- with elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions expected. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough moving slowly eastward over the Rockies, a substantial jet streak will overspread California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. This will lead to strengthening surface ridging extending from the Northwest into the Great Basin, with a tightening offshore pressure gradient across southern California. The offshore pressure gradient will peak into the overnight/early morning hours, and strong low/midlevel winds beneath the jet streak will promote gusts upwards of 60 mph over wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern California. The strong/gusty north-northeasterly winds and decreasing RH atop dry fuels will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially on Monday afternoon to early evening from northeast Texas to southwest Missouri. Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... A vigorous shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jet will eject across west TX on Monday morning and advance northeast into the Lower MO Valley by early Tuesday. While the trough orientation will be positive tilt and yield a predominantly south-southwesterly mid/upper flow regime, some of the fast winds will overlap with the northwest portion of the moderate buoyancy plume across the southern Great Plains. Weak mid-level lapse rates will afflict the warm-moist sector owing to multiple preceding days of convective overturning and the meridional flow regime. Low-level warm advection should foster one convective swath centered from the Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-MS Valley at 12Z Monday. A separate linear cluster should also be ongoing in the western north TX to southwest OK vicinity, near a surface cyclone attendant to the aforementioned shortwave trough. This surface cyclone should deepen slightly as it progresses northeastward. Guidance suggests a window for at least modest diabatic surface heating between the convective swaths, across northeast TX into southeast OK, where mid to upper 60s dew points should be emanating north from east TX. Increasing convective coverage and intensity are expected towards midday into the afternoon, within a largely north-northeast to south-southwest oriented swath centered on eastern OK to northeast TX. While a linear mode should dominate, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and favorable speed shear in the mid/upper-levels will support potential for embedded supercell structures. This should be sufficient for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, along with scattered damaging winds. Severe potential should diminish Monday night as the mostly linear convective band shifts east of the daytime-heating corridor. Convection over east to southeast TX will likely slow its eastward advance and contain more undercutting outflow, as large-scale ascent shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively diminishing surface-based instability. But amid a very strong low-level flow, confidence is low in where severe potential will become negligible Monday night. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially on Monday afternoon to early evening from northeast Texas to southwest Missouri. Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... A vigorous shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jet will eject across west TX on Monday morning and advance northeast into the Lower MO Valley by early Tuesday. While the trough orientation will be positive tilt and yield a predominantly south-southwesterly mid/upper flow regime, some of the fast winds will overlap with the northwest portion of the moderate buoyancy plume across the southern Great Plains. Weak mid-level lapse rates will afflict the warm-moist sector owing to multiple preceding days of convective overturning and the meridional flow regime. Low-level warm advection should foster one convective swath centered from the Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-MS Valley at 12Z Monday. A separate linear cluster should also be ongoing in the western north TX to southwest OK vicinity, near a surface cyclone attendant to the aforementioned shortwave trough. This surface cyclone should deepen slightly as it progresses northeastward. Guidance suggests a window for at least modest diabatic surface heating between the convective swaths, across northeast TX into southeast OK, where mid to upper 60s dew points should be emanating north from east TX. Increasing convective coverage and intensity are expected towards midday into the afternoon, within a largely north-northeast to south-southwest oriented swath centered on eastern OK to northeast TX. While a linear mode should dominate, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and favorable speed shear in the mid/upper-levels will support potential for embedded supercell structures. This should be sufficient for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, along with scattered damaging winds. Severe potential should diminish Monday night as the mostly linear convective band shifts east of the daytime-heating corridor. Convection over east to southeast TX will likely slow its eastward advance and contain more undercutting outflow, as large-scale ascent shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively diminishing surface-based instability. But amid a very strong low-level flow, confidence is low in where severe potential will become negligible Monday night. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially on Monday afternoon to early evening from northeast Texas to southwest Missouri. Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... A vigorous shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jet will eject across west TX on Monday morning and advance northeast into the Lower MO Valley by early Tuesday. While the trough orientation will be positive tilt and yield a predominantly south-southwesterly mid/upper flow regime, some of the fast winds will overlap with the northwest portion of the moderate buoyancy plume across the southern Great Plains. Weak mid-level lapse rates will afflict the warm-moist sector owing to multiple preceding days of convective overturning and the meridional flow regime. Low-level warm advection should foster one convective swath centered from the Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-MS Valley at 12Z Monday. A separate linear cluster should also be ongoing in the western north TX to southwest OK vicinity, near a surface cyclone attendant to the aforementioned shortwave trough. This surface cyclone should deepen slightly as it progresses northeastward. Guidance suggests a window for at least modest diabatic surface heating between the convective swaths, across northeast TX into southeast OK, where mid to upper 60s dew points should be emanating north from east TX. Increasing convective coverage and intensity are expected towards midday into the afternoon, within a largely north-northeast to south-southwest oriented swath centered on eastern OK to northeast TX. While a linear mode should dominate, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and favorable speed shear in the mid/upper-levels will support potential for embedded supercell structures. This should be sufficient for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, along with scattered damaging winds. Severe potential should diminish Monday night as the mostly linear convective band shifts east of the daytime-heating corridor. Convection over east to southeast TX will likely slow its eastward advance and contain more undercutting outflow, as large-scale ascent shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively diminishing surface-based instability. But amid a very strong low-level flow, confidence is low in where severe potential will become negligible Monday night. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially on Monday afternoon to early evening from northeast Texas to southwest Missouri. Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... A vigorous shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jet will eject across west TX on Monday morning and advance northeast into the Lower MO Valley by early Tuesday. While the trough orientation will be positive tilt and yield a predominantly south-southwesterly mid/upper flow regime, some of the fast winds will overlap with the northwest portion of the moderate buoyancy plume across the southern Great Plains. Weak mid-level lapse rates will afflict the warm-moist sector owing to multiple preceding days of convective overturning and the meridional flow regime. Low-level warm advection should foster one convective swath centered from the Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-MS Valley at 12Z Monday. A separate linear cluster should also be ongoing in the western north TX to southwest OK vicinity, near a surface cyclone attendant to the aforementioned shortwave trough. This surface cyclone should deepen slightly as it progresses northeastward. Guidance suggests a window for at least modest diabatic surface heating between the convective swaths, across northeast TX into southeast OK, where mid to upper 60s dew points should be emanating north from east TX. Increasing convective coverage and intensity are expected towards midday into the afternoon, within a largely north-northeast to south-southwest oriented swath centered on eastern OK to northeast TX. While a linear mode should dominate, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and favorable speed shear in the mid/upper-levels will support potential for embedded supercell structures. This should be sufficient for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, along with scattered damaging winds. Severe potential should diminish Monday night as the mostly linear convective band shifts east of the daytime-heating corridor. Convection over east to southeast TX will likely slow its eastward advance and contain more undercutting outflow, as large-scale ascent shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively diminishing surface-based instability. But amid a very strong low-level flow, confidence is low in where severe potential will become negligible Monday night. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC Nov 3, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

10 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially on Monday afternoon to early evening from northeast Texas to southwest Missouri. Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... A vigorous shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jet will eject across west TX on Monday morning and advance northeast into the Lower MO Valley by early Tuesday. While the trough orientation will be positive tilt and yield a predominantly south-southwesterly mid/upper flow regime, some of the fast winds will overlap with the northwest portion of the moderate buoyancy plume across the southern Great Plains. Weak mid-level lapse rates will afflict the warm-moist sector owing to multiple preceding days of convective overturning and the meridional flow regime. Low-level warm advection should foster one convective swath centered from the Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-MS Valley at 12Z Monday. A separate linear cluster should also be ongoing in the western north TX to southwest OK vicinity, near a surface cyclone attendant to the aforementioned shortwave trough. This surface cyclone should deepen slightly as it progresses northeastward. Guidance suggests a window for at least modest diabatic surface heating between the convective swaths, across northeast TX into southeast OK, where mid to upper 60s dew points should be emanating north from east TX. Increasing convective coverage and intensity are expected towards midday into the afternoon, within a largely north-northeast to south-southwest oriented swath centered on eastern OK to northeast TX. While a linear mode should dominate, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and favorable speed shear in the mid/upper-levels will support potential for embedded supercell structures. This should be sufficient for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, along with scattered damaging winds. Severe potential should diminish Monday night as the mostly linear convective band shifts east of the daytime-heating corridor. Convection over east to southeast TX will likely slow its eastward advance and contain more undercutting outflow, as large-scale ascent shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively diminishing surface-based instability. But amid a very strong low-level flow, confidence is low in where severe potential will become negligible Monday night. ..Grams.. 11/03/2024 Read more