Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more